CNH-L: Volcanism, Hydrology and Social Conflict: Lessons from Hellenistic and Roman-Era Egypt and Mesopotamia

这个项目考察了古代火山爆发和每年尼罗河夏季洪水之间的联系。大规模的火山喷发会降低全球平均气温，抑制全球平均降水量。众所周知，这在历史时期对尼罗河流域的年降雨量产生了戏剧性的影响。在1970年阿斯旺高坝建成之前，人类对这场每年一度的洪水及其多年来的变化无常的反应是埃及历史的主要驱动力。这个项目是历史学家、科学家、水文学家和统计学家的合作项目，旨在了解希腊化时代(公元前305年-公元前30年)埃及水文循环和人类社会之间的耦合，这是一个有充分记录的经济、技术和社会变革时期，主要地区大国之间经常发生激烈的竞争。研究结果还将有助于我们理解现代世界中应对气候变化的最佳做法。该项目将通过耶鲁大学皮博迪自然历史博物馆制定的巡回展览计划，向广大公众介绍人类和自然系统以及它们之间在不同尺度上的复杂相互作用。该项目将利用古埃及和近东罕见的自然和人类档案的融合。通过将丰富的历史记录(纸莎草纸文献和铭文)与环境数据以及反复发生的突然气候事件的区域气候和水文模拟进行比较，研究将确定社会动力是否以及如何受气候驱动，以及人类水资源管理是否影响区域气候和水文以及如何影响区域气候和水文。火山喷发测试了人类和自然系统对突然冲击的敏感性，因为火山喷发的反复发生可以在存在随机变化的情况下确定系统的关系。该项目将做出三项重要贡献：(1)综合来自不同档案馆的大量历史数据，分析希腊化时代气候多变、社会动荡和体制变化之间的关系；(2)提高对火山喷发的水文学反应的了解；(3)记录人类对地中海水文学的影响程度。模拟将用于评估持续的大规模火山活动和密集的区域水资源管理对气候的影响。这一历史分析将勾勒出环境压力影响希腊化时期国家行为、社区反应(如土地和水管理的变化)和州际冲突的机制，以及人类活动如何交互影响土壤、土地覆盖、水文和区域气候。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project examines the link between explosive volcanic eruptions and the annual Nile river summer flooding in antiquity. Large volcanic eruptions can reduce average global temperatures and suppress average global precipitation. This is known to have had dramatic effects on annual rainfall on the Nile watershed in historic times. The human response to this annual flooding, and to its variability over the years, was the major driver of Egyptian history up to the completion of the high dam at Aswan in 1970. This project, a collaboration among historians, scientists, hydrologists, and statisticians, seeks to understand the coupling between the hydrological cycle and human society in Egypt during the Hellenistic era (305 BCE - 30 BCE), a well-documented period of economic, technological and social change with often violent rivalries between major regional powers. The results will also inform our understanding of best-practice responses to the changing climate in the modern world. The project will inform the broad public about human and natural systems and the complex interactions between them at diverse scales, through a traveling exhibition program developed at the Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History. This project will capitalize upon a rare confluence of natural and human archives for Ancient Egypt and the Near East. By comparing rich historical records (papyrus documents and inscriptions) with environmental data and regional climate and hydrologic simulations for repeated abrupt climate events, the research will determine whether and how social dynamics are climate-driven, and whether and how human water management affects regional climate and hydrology. Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. The project will make three important contributions: (1) integrate historical data from a wealth of different archives to analyze the connections between climate variability, social unrest, and institutional change during the Hellenistic era; (2) improve knowledge of hydrological responses to volcanic eruptions; (3) document the extent of human impacts on Mediterranean hydrology. Simulations will be used to evaluate the climatic impact of large and sustained volcanism and intensive regional water management. This historical analysis will delineate the mechanisms through which environmental stress influenced state-level behaviors, community responses (such as changes in land and water management), and interstate conflict during the Hellenistic period, and how in return human activities interactively affected soils, land cover, hydrology, and regional climate.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.