CNH-L: Land-Climate-Water Feedbacks and Farmer Decision-Making in an Agricultural System

CNH-L：农业系统中的土地-气候-水反馈和农民决策

• 批准号: 1825046
• 负责人: Katrina Mullan
• 金额: $ 145万
• 依托单位: University of Montana
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1825046&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Land; Climate; Water; Feedbacks

This project examines how clearing forests for agriculture impacts regional water cycles and how these changes, in turn, affect agricultural production. The research will expand the emerging field of socio-hydrology (the study of the feedbacks between human decisions and water systems) by focusing on how land-use choices made by farmers influence water availability and thus alter the productivity of agricultural land. Understanding the relationships between land-use change, water, and agriculture is crucial to balancing tradeoffs between the environmental costs associated with converting forests and other natural habitats to crop fields and pasture, and the need to increase food production to meet growing demands as global populations and incomes rise. This project will contribute to the health and welfare of the United States and elsewhere by informing choices about how to increase agricultural output while limiting impacts on water, atmosphere and biodiversity. It will enhance research and education infrastructure by expanding a scientifically relevant and publicly-available dataset linking a survey of farm households to data and models of land and water use. Lastly, it will develop capacity in interdisciplinary research through the training of students and postdoctoral researchers.Land-use decisions of individual farmers can aggregate up to landscape-level changes that influence the regional hydroclimate in ways that alter the availability of water for agricultural production, including both soil moisture or 'green' water and surface/ground or 'blue' water. How farmers adjust their investment and land-use decisions in response to water scarcity has implications for agricultural productivity and ultimately the supply of agricultural commodities. This project will advance basic scientific knowledge of the dynamic feedbacks among agricultural production choices, regional environmental variability, and vulnerability to water stress. It will address questions of how environmental variability and land-use changes affect the regional hydroclimate and property-level green and blue water; the extent to which individual farmers are vulnerable to variation in green and blue water and how they adapt; and how inter-related farmer production decisions aggregate to determine water, land-use, production and welfare outcomes under different policy scenarios. Data from a unique long-term household panel survey (1996-2018) will be combined with data and models of land cover, climate and hydrology to understand the effects of the regional hydroclimate on property-level water availability and the effects of water availability on agricultural production decisions. Analysis of the property-level empirical relationships will inform an agent-based model (ABM) that will be linked with a regional climate model to assess the aggregate consequences of these feedbacks for land-use, agricultural output and welfare.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目研究了砍伐森林用于农业如何影响区域水循环，以及这些变化又如何影响农业生产。这项研究将扩大新兴的社会水文学领域(研究人类决策和水系统之间的反馈)，重点研究农民的土地使用选择如何影响水的可获得性，从而改变农业土地的生产力。了解土地利用变化、水和农业之间的关系，对于平衡将森林和其他自然栖息地转变为农田和牧场所带来的环境成本，以及随着全球人口和收入增加而增加粮食产量以满足日益增长的需求之间的权衡至关重要。该项目将为美国和其他地方的健康和福利做出贡献，告诉人们如何在增加农业产量的同时限制对水、大气和生物多样性的影响。它将通过扩大科学相关和公开可用的数据集，将对农户的调查与土地和水使用的数据和模型联系起来，从而加强研究和教育基础设施。最后，它将通过培训学生和博士后研究人员发展跨学科研究的能力。单个农民的土地使用决定可以汇总到影响区域水文气候的景观层面的变化，从而改变农业生产所需水的可获得性，包括土壤水分或“绿色”水和地表水/地面水或“蓝色”水。农民如何调整他们的投资和土地使用决策以应对缺水问题，对农业生产力和最终农产品的供应都有影响。该项目将增进关于农业生产选择、区域环境变异性和易受水胁迫影响之间的动态反馈的基本科学知识。它将讨论以下问题：环境的多变性和土地利用的变化如何影响区域水文气候和财产级别的绿水和蓝水；单个农民在多大程度上易受绿水和蓝水变化的影响以及他们如何适应；相互关联的农民生产决定如何汇总，以确定不同政策情景下的水、土地利用、生产和福利结果。一项独特的长期家庭小组调查(1996-2018年)的数据将与土地覆盖、气候和水文的数据和模型相结合，以了解区域水文气候对财产一级可用水的影响，以及可用水对农业生产决策的影响。对财产层面经验关系的分析将为基于代理人的模型(ABM)提供信息，该模型将与区域气候模型联系起来，以评估这些反馈对土地利用、农业产出和福利的总体影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Do forests provide watershed services for farmers in the humid tropics? Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106965
• 发表时间: 2021-05
• 期刊: Ecological Economics
• 影响因子: 7
• 作者: Yu Wu;K. Mullan;T. Biggs;Jill L. Caviglia-Harris;Daniel W. Harris;E. Sills

Importance in Shifting Circulation Patterns for Dry Season Moisture Sources in the Brazilian Amazon

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103167
• 发表时间: 2023-05
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Ye Mu;T. Biggs;Charles Jones

The color of water: The contributions of green and blue water to agricultural productivity in the Western Brazilian Amazon

• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105607
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: World Development
• 影响因子: 6.9
• 作者: Jill L. Caviglia-Harris;T. Biggs;E. Ferreira;Daniel W. Harris;K. Mullan;E. Sills

Quantifying Fire-Induced Surface Climate Changes in the Savanna and Rainforest Biomes of Brazil

• DOI: 10.3390/fire6080311
• 发表时间: 2023-08
• 期刊: Fire
• 作者: F. de Sales;Zackary Werner;João Gilberto de Souza Ribeiro

Satellite-based precipitation estimates using a dense rain gauge network over the Southwestern Brazilian Amazon: Implication for identifying trends in dry season rainfall

• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105741
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: Atmospheric Research
• 影响因子: 5.5
• 作者: Ye Mu;T. Biggs;S. Shen