CNH-L: Assessing the Potential for Climate Change and Forest Insects to Drive Land-Use Regime Shifts

气候变化和森林昆虫对森林生态系统产生重大影响，这些因素也强烈影响土地利用决策，森林的间接影响至少与直接影响同等重要。可持续森林管理的一个科学前沿是更好地了解这些过程和土地变化的驱动因素，特别是查明可能引发土地利用重大变化的因素。本项目将利用计算机模拟模型来解决这一挑战，模拟不断变化的土地利用决策和森林虫害爆发如何相互影响。模拟将在气候变化和木质生物质新兴能源市场的背景下进行。研究区域将是新英格兰，那里人口稠密，森林覆盖率高，有破坏性的森林害虫。这项研究将使用面谈和调查来研究土地所有者和土地管理机构，作为土地使用决策的计算机模拟的基础，该计算机模拟将与包括昆虫动态在内的森林过程的模拟相联系。相互作用的模型将被检查在生态系统服务的生产的替代结果。这些模型的产出将被纳入一套决策支持工具，旨在帮助土地所有者做出明智的土地使用决策。该研究将研究气候变化和虫害如何影响土地利用，并将量化这些过程对森林景观的个体、总体和相互作用影响。将讨论新兴木质生物质能源市场、虫害和气候变化对森林土地利用决策的相互影响。该研究将考察(1)气候变化和昆虫动态是否以及如何通过改变人类决策来改变新英格兰地区的土地利用制度；(2)人类决策的这些变化如何影响森林生态系统和特定生态系统服务的流动；(3)这些生态系统变化反过来如何影响土地所有者。为了实现这些目标，研究人员将采用三方面的方法：(1)收集社会科学数据，包括调查和有针对性的结构化访谈，以了解新英格兰的私人土地所有者如何看待气候变化和昆虫，以及这些看法如何影响他们的土地；(2)基于智能体的仿真；(3)量化森林结构、碳和物种组成变化的区域尺度森林模拟。代表人类系统的基于主体的模型和代表自然系统的森林模拟之间的耦合将是动态的，以便捕获从两者之间的复杂反馈中出现的特定模式。在这个框架中，复杂系统的宏观特性——即土地使用制度——来自于主体之间较低层次的相互作用。这项研究还包括对更广泛影响战略的有效性进行比较评估。

Climate change and forest insects have significant impacts on forest ecosystems and these factors also strongly influence land-use decision-making, with indirect forest impacts at least as significant as the direct impacts. A scientific frontier in sustainable forest management, is developing a better understanding of these processes and drivers of land change, especially identification of factors that can trigger major land-use shifts. This project will address this challenge using a computer simulation model of how changing land-use decisions and forest insect outbreaks affect each other. The simulation will be set within the context of a changing climate and emerging energy markets for woody biomass. The study region will be New England, which is densely populated, highly forested, and has damaging forest insect pests. The research will use interviews and a survey to study land owners and institutional land managers as a basis for a computer simulation of land use decision making that will be linked to a simulation of forest processes, including insect dynamics. The interacting models will be examined for alternative outcomes in the production of ecosystem services. The outputs from these models will be integrated into a portfolio of decision support tools designed to help landowners make informed land-use decisions.The research will examine how climate change and insect infestations affect land-use, and it will quantify the individual, aggregate, and interactive impacts of these processes on forest landscapes. The interacting influences of emerging woody biomass energy markets, insect infestations, and climate change on forest land-use decisions will be addressed. The study will examine (1) whether and how climate change and insect dynamics are shifting land-use regimes in New England by altering human decision-making; (2) how these alterations in human decisions may affect forest ecosystems and the flow of select ecosystem services; and (3) how, in turn, these ecosystem changes affect landowners. To achieve these goals, the researchers will employ a three-faceted approach: (1) social science data collection including surveys, and targeted structured interviews to understand how private landowners in New England perceive climate change and insect and how these perceptions are influencing their land us; (2) agent-based simulations; and (3) regional-scale forest simulations that quantify changes in forest structure, carbon, and species composition. The coupling between the agent-based model representing the human system and the forest simulation representing the natural system will be dynamic in order to capture the specific patterns that emerge from the complex feedbacks between the two. In this framework, the macroscopic properties of complex systems - i.e., land-use regimes - emerge from lower-level interactions among agents. The research also includes a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of the broader impact strategy.