CREST-PRF: Integrating Economics, Policy, Infrastructure and Climate in the Energy Water Nexus: A Decision Support Tool for Water Management in the Oil and Gas Industry

卓越研究中心在科学和技术博士后研究奖学金（CREST-PRF）的CREST计划内的轨道支持开始CREST中心研究人员具有显着的潜力，并为他们提供培训和研究经验，将拓宽视野，促进跨学科的互动，并建立他们在科学界的领导地位。这项CREST-PRF研究与新墨西哥州大学土木工程系CREST水与环境中心（CWE）的目标一致。石油和天然气（O G）行业的最新趋势显示出前所未有的增长，全球80%的新需求将通过国内（美国）供应来满足。这一增长主要是由于技术进步（水平钻井和水力压裂），允许从非常规储量中经济有效地回收O G。这种生产需要并产生大量的水，这两者都必须得到有效的管理，以确保生产稳定性并尽量减少对更广泛社区的负面影响。本研究的目的是了解在何种情况下，水可能会限制O G生产在未来考虑利益相关者（生产者，水权持有人，监管机构）如何应对四个因素的变化：经济，政策，基础设施和气候（EPIC）。将设计一个决策支持工具，以评估这些动态，并确定管理战略，以提高这些关键系统在未来不确定条件下的复原力。这项工作将弥合现场具体分析，技术评估和人类行为之间的差距，解决水资源管理的整体和时间动态的方式。 因此，它将产生关于系统如何运作，什么机制指导业主级决策，以及如何在未来以对生产者，监管者和其他水用户有意义的规模进行最佳水管理的新知识。该项目将采用一种新的方法，将空间和大数据处理和分析，系统动力学（SD）和基于代理的建模（ABM）技术，和专家启发来调查物理和决策驱动系统之间的反馈。这项工作将集中在二叠纪盆地（新墨西哥州，得克萨斯州），估计代表了全球最大的石油储量之一，但也是水有限，并以长期干旱为标志。由于该地区O G发展的快速增长，关于石油和天然气行业的水管理动态将如何随时间变化以及哪些因素将影响这些关系，存在重大的知识差距。EPIC因素之间的联系将使用井级生产信息，水，气候和时间运输网络建模进行分析。专家知识将为理解与人的交互作用、知识产权人驱动的系统并将其纳入反弹道导弹管理提供基础。这些信息将提高利益攸关方的能力，以确定创新的水管理战略，减少风险，并支持干旱能源生产地区的长期水需求。除了这项研究的可扩展性，以其他耦合的能量-水系统，它提供了一种手段，以进一步了解这些动态系统对人类健康和安全的影响，在一个更有效的，空间和时间相关的mart.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准的支持。

The Centers of Research Excellence in Science and Technology-Postdoctoral Research Fellowship (CREST-PRF) track within the CREST program supports beginning CREST Center investigators with significant potential and provides them with training and research experiences that will broaden perspectives, facilitate interdisciplinary interactions and establish them in positions of leadership within the scientific community. This CREST-PRF research is aligned with the goals of CREST Center for Water and the Environment (CWE) in the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of New Mexico. Recent trends in the oil and gas (O&G) industry show unprecedented growth such that 80% of new global demand will be met with domestic (US) supplies. This growth is due largely to technological advances (horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing) that allow for cost effective recovery of O&G from unconventional reserves. This production both requires and produces large volumes of water, both of which must be managed efficiently to insure production stability and minimize negative impacts on the broader community. The objective of this research is to understand the circumstances under which water may constrain O&G production in the future by considering how stakeholders (producers, water rights holders, regulators) respond to changes in four factors: Economics, Policy, Infrastructure, and Climate (EPIC). A decision support tool will be designed to evaluate these dynamics and to identify management strategies that will improve the resilience of these critical systems in uncertain future conditions. This work will bridge gaps between site specific analyses, technology assessments, and human behavior by addressing water management in a holistic and temporally dynamic manner. As a result, it will generate new knowledge regarding how the system functions, what mechanisms guide stakeholder-level decisions, and how water can be optimally managed in the future at a scale that is meaningful to producers, regulators, and other water users.This project will employ a novel approach that integrates spatial and big data processing and analysis, system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques, and expert elicitation to investigate the feedbacks between physical and decision-driven systems. This work will focus on the Permian Basin (NM, TX) which is estimated to represent one of the largest oil reserves globally but is also water limited and marked by periods of extended drought. Because of the rapid growth in O&G development in the region, significant knowledge gaps exist regarding how water management dynamics in the oil and gas industry will change over time and what factors will influence these relationships. The linkages between EPIC factors will be analyzed using well-level production information, water, climate, and temporal transportation network modeling. Expert knowledge will provide the basis for understanding interactions with human, stakeholder-driven systems and incorporated into an ABM. This information will improve the ability of stakeholders to identify innovative water management strategies that reduce risk and support long-term water needs in arid, energy producing regions. In addition to the extensibility of this research to other coupled energy-water systems, it provides a means to further understand implications of these dynamic systems on human health and safety in a more efficient, spatially and temporally relevant manner.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.