Modelling of load-induced height changes in the southern Baltic for the last 8.000 years

这个项目的目的是模拟垂直地壳运动和基于地表载荷效应的相对海平面变化。模拟将集中于波罗的海南部沿海地区和自Littorina海侵以来选定的海平面演变阶段的现实情景。研究了波罗的海形成和充填过程中水质量变化的空间高分化加载信号的影响。为此目的，海平面方程将适用于所调查的区域，并将尤斯塔斯运动、重力和均衡运动对相对海平面变化的密切联系的贡献联系起来。地壳垂直等静力形变将采用粘弹性地球模型来确定，该模型受包括海陆分布变化在内的时空载荷模型控制。在拟议的项目中，这种负荷模型将作为现有大比例尺模型的降尺度模型建立，具有前所未有的时空分辨率。这是可能的，因为SINCOS- ii项目1提供的关于海平面和海岸线位置变化的独特知识，以及最近从SINCOS单元内的多学科研究中获得的知识。基于增强荷载模型，量化了地壳、重力场和相对海平面的相关响应。分离海平面方程各分量对观测到的海平面变化的贡献，对于项目1中拟进行的任何进一步模拟都是必不可少的。一般来说，海平面方程的解为调查区相对海平面曲线的精细化解释和解释提供了基础。一旦重建了过去海平面变化的负荷效应，就可以应用气候驱动的海平面变化情景来预测未来的海平面发展。

The aim of this project is the modelling of vertical crustal movements and of relative sea-level changes based on surface loading effects. The modelling will focus on the coastal region of the southern Baltic Sea and on realistic scenarios of selected sealevel evolution stages since the Littorina transgression. The impact of the spatially highly differentiated loading signal of the changing water masses in the course of the formation and filling of the Baltic Sea will be investigated. For this purpose, the Sea-Level Equation will be applied to the region under investigation, relating the closely linked contributions of eustasy, gravity and isostasy on relative sea-level changes. The isostatic vertical crustal deformation will be determined using a visco-elastic earth model, which is governed by a space-time load model including the changing land-sea distribution. In the proposed project, such a load model will be established as a downscaling of existing large scale models with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. This is possible due to the unique knowledge about changes in the sea level and shoreline position provided from SINCOS-II project 1, and which has recently been obtained from the multidisciplinary research within the SINCOS unit. Based on the enhanced load model, the associated response of the earth crust, gravity field, and relative sea level are quantified. The separation of the contributions of the Sea-Level Equation components to the observed sea-level changes is essential for any further modelling intended in project 1. In general, the solution of the Sea-Level Equation provides the basis for a refined interpretation and explanation of the relative sea-level curves available for the investigation area. Once the loading effects of sea-level changes in the past have been reconstructed, a prediction of future sea-level developments will be approached applying scenarios of the climatically driven eustatic changes.