Analyzing Weather Data from Historic Logbooks to Assess Changing Wind and Atmospheric Pressure Patterns

这项研究项目使用美国捕鲸船日志分析历史天气模式，以了解过去约250年来海洋风压模式在空间上的变化。该项目整合了不同的学术分支领域，因为历史学家与海洋学家合作，将仪器气象记录延长到两个世纪前，并具有比目前可用的更广泛的地理分布。为了安全，海员们在他们的海图上记录了对航行的危险，以及天气数据。该项目从历史日志中提取大量气象数据，现代科学家迄今无法获取这些记录，并在网上免费提供这些数据。研究人员使用这些历史天气记录来解决当前关于风和大气压力模式变化的问题。这些变化包括与陆地上的亚热带干旱地区有关的高压系统的变化，以及引导降雨天气系统通过的西风风暴路径。了解这些风和大气压力模式过去的变异性具有社会意义，因为这些模式直接影响农业生产力，并可改进天气预报和建模。此外，这项研究还可以识别对现代航运有实际好处的天气和导航数据，突显该项目对现代商业导航和海上防御的重要性。该项目包括对学生进行收敛科学方面的培训。研究成果将通过博物馆的非正式学习机会向公众提供，并在跨学科会议上向更广泛的科学界提供。长期数据集对气象研究非常宝贵，因为它们建立了衡量最近变化的基线，可以验证模型，并阐明大气和海洋是如何相互作用的。正在分析的历史日志包含系统的天气观测(例如，风强和风向、风暴、海况、降水、气温、大气压力)，这将大大扩展仪器记录。新恢复的历史数据与现有的观测和再分析产品相结合，以了解过去约250年来地球大气环流变化的稳健性和长期背景。调查人员特别考虑：(A)与美国西南部等副热带旱区扩大有关的哈德利环流的变化；(B)作为哈德利环流下降支的副热带高压系统的强度和位置的变化，以及捕鲸者在前往历史捕鲸场的途中穿越南半球西风的强度和位置的变化，以及最近发生了强烈向极地转移的西风。了解副热带高压系统和西风风暴路径的长期可变性对任何受此类气象模式影响的地区都具有相关性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project analyzes historic weather patterns using American whaling ship logbooks to understand how oceanic wind and pressure patterns have varied spatially over the past approximately 250 years. The project integrates disparate scholarly subfields as historians work with oceanographers to extend the instrumental meteorological record back two centuries and with a broader geographical distribution than is currently available. For safety, mariners recorded hazards to navigation on their charts, as well as weather data. The project extracts substantial meteorological data from historic logbooks, records heretofore inaccessible to modern scientists, and makes them freely available online. The investigators use these historic weather records to address current questions regarding shifts in wind and atmospheric pressure patterns. These include changes in high pressure systems that are related to the subtropical dry zones on land and the westerly storm tracks that steer the passage of rain-bearing weather systems. The understanding of past variability in these wind and atmospheric pressure patterns has societal relevance as these patterns directly impact agricultural productivity and can improve weather forecasting and modelling. Furthermore, the research can identify weather and navigational data that are of practical benefit to contemporary shipping, underscoring the project's importance to modern commercial navigation and maritime defense. The project includes training students in convergent science. Research results will be made available to the public via informal learning opportunities at museums and to the broader scientific community at interdisciplinary conferences.Long-term datasets are invaluable to meteorological research as they establish a baseline against which to measure recent changes, can validate models, and illuminate how the atmosphere and ocean interact. The historic logbooks being analyzed contain systematic weather observations (e.g., wind strength and direction, storms, sea state, precipitation, air temperature, atmospheric pressure) that will significantly extend the instrumental record. The newly-recovered historical data are combined with existing observational and reanalysis products to understand robustness and long-term context of variations in the Earth's atmospheric circulation over the past approximately 250 years. The investigators specifically consider: (a) changes in the Hadley circulation that are related to the expansion of subtropical dry zones, such as in the U.S. Southwest; and (b) changes in strength and position of subtropical high-pressure systems as manifestations of the descending limb of Hadley Cell circulation and changes in strength and position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds that were traversed by the whalers on their way to historical whaling grounds and which have recently experienced strong poleward shifts. Understanding long-term variability in subtropical high-pressure systems and westerly storm tracks has relevance for any regions affected by such meteorological patterns.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.