The Ecology of Critical Transitions in Pest Control in The Coffee Agroecosystem

突袭的必然性是生态系统的一个特征。虽然大多数科学都建立在一套规则的定律或原则上，即特定的输入产生可预测和一致的输出，但生态系统的关键思想之一是，这种内在的可预测性经常被违反，主要是因为它们包含着复杂的相互联系。因此，尽管物理学和天文学理所当然地称赞它们能够对在极大(如宇宙)和极小(如原子)水平上发生的事情做出精确预测，但生态系统以其固有的不可预测性而闻名，其中一个方面是突然、剧烈的，有时甚至是意想不到的变化。这类事件通常被称为“关键过渡”。一个明显的例子是农业系统中突然爆发的害虫。这个项目试图了解害虫系统中这些意想不到的变化的结构，这些变化自古以来就普遍困扰着食品生产，目前威胁着社会最受欢迎的饮料之一。该项目以咖啡农业生态系统为模型生态系统，询问关键转变(在这种情况下，害虫突然爆发)的经典观点如何反映从基本生态学理论中产生的理论概念。受管理系统中的虫害暴发可能是由关键的过渡现象推动的；它们往往似乎突然从一个相对稳定的系统(虫害种群数量低)跳到另一个系统(虫害种群数量高)，而不是随着管理决策而缓慢积累虫害问题的增加。此外，寻求扭转这一过程的管理人员可能会面临相关的滞后问题：当达到管理阈值时，突然爆发的虫害不会以同样的方式逆转，当该阈值恢复到以前的水平时。墨西哥南部咖啡农场的三大害虫都连接在具有理论结构(模块)的子系统中，每个子系统都暗示着发生关键过渡的条件。这项研究试图确定这三个定义明确的模块(子系统)是否表现出关键的过渡行为。此外，这项工作旨在更大范围地理解当这三个子组件(每个子组件都可以单独显示关键过渡行为)结合在一起时的影响，因为它们显然是真实的。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The inevitability of surprise is a characteristic of ecological systems. While most sciences are founded on a regular set of laws or principles such that a particular input results in a predictable and consistent output, one of the key ideas of ecological systems is that this inherent predictability is frequently violated, mainly because of the complex interconnections they contain. Thus, while physics and astronomy, for example, rightly celebrate their ability to make precise predictions about what happens at extremely large (e.g., the universe) and extremely small (e.g., atoms) levels, ecological systems are known for their inherent unpredictability, one aspect of which is sudden, drastic, and at times unexpected change. Such events are frequently referred to as a "critical transition." An evident example is the sudden outbreak of pests in agricultural systems. This project seeks to understand the structure of these unexpected changes in the pest systems that have generally plagued food production since times immemorial and that currently threaten one of society's favorite beverages.This project uses the coffee agroecosystem as a model ecosystem, to ask how classical ideas of critical transitions (in this case, sudden pest outbreaks) reflect theoretical constructs that emerge from basic ecological theory. Pest outbreaks in managed systems are potentially driven by critical transition phenomena; rather than a slowly accumulating increase in pest problems in response to management decisions, frequently they seem to suddenly jump from one relatively stable system (low pest population) to another one (high pest population). In addition, managers seeking to reverse this process, may face the related problem of hysteresis: the sudden pest outbreak when a management threshold is reached does not reverse itself in the same way when that threshold reverts to its previous level. The three major pests on the coffee farms of southern Mexico are all connected in subsystems that have theoretical structures (modules), each of which suggests conditions under which critical transitions will occur. The research seeks to determine whether these three well-defined modules (subsystems) demonstrate critical transition behavior. Furthermore, the work aims to understand implications at a larger scale when these three subcomponents, each of which separately can be expected to show critical transition behavior, are coupled as they obviously are in reality.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.