Doctoral Dissertation Research: Effects of Natural Resource Dependence

本项目调查一个对某些社区至关重要的问题，即依赖自然资源开采还是依赖其他发展形式之间的选择。几十年来，美国对自然资源的开采一直在减少。取而代之的是，非采掘形式的自然资源开发，如旅游、户外娱乐和休闲设施开发，已经成为一个可能的新方向。在这个项目中，分析了这些替代路径与经济结果（包括经济增长、贫困和机会）之间的关系。目的是了解特定策略以及策略之间的变化何时以及如何有益。调查结果将为美国这些领域的决策提供信息，从而提高国家福利。该项目的数据来自1970年至2017年美国相关县的美国人口普查、美国社区调查和经济分析局的数据。在分析中，将使用空间固定效应计量模型测试和比较县级采掘性和非采掘性自然资源开发对收入增长、贫困和机会的历史影响，以评估自然资源开发如何影响收入及其随时间的分配。这些模型将用于确定依赖的经验阈值，以便对采掘、非采掘和混合（即采掘和非采掘）依赖进行分类。随后，将对依赖采掘和非采掘自然资源的国家的社会经济福利的趋势和转变进行评估。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project investigates an issue of central importance to some communities, the choice between reliance on natural resource extraction versus reliance on alternative forms of development. Extractive forms of natural resource use have been declining in the United States for decades. In their place, non-extractive forms of natural resource development such as tourism, outdoor recreation, and amenity development have emerged as a possible new direction. In this project, the relationship between these alternative paths and economic outcomes including economic growth, poverty, and opportunity is analyzed. The object is to see when and how particular strategies as well as change between strategies are beneficial. Findings will inform decision making concerning these areas of the United States and so will enhance national welfare.Data for this project come from combining U.S. Census, American Community Survey, and Bureau of Economic Analysis data for relevant counties in the United States from 1970 to 2017. In the analysis, the historical effect of county-level extractive and non-extractive natural resource development on income growth, poverty, and opportunity will be tested and compared using spatial fixed-effects econometric models to provide an evaluation of how natural resource development affects income and its distribution over time. These models will be used to identify empirical thresholds of dependence in order to develop classifications of extractive, non-extractive, and hybrid (i.e., both extractive and non-extractive) dependence. Subsequently, trends and transitions in socioeconomic well-being will be evaluated for extractive and non-extractive natural resource dependent counties.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.