Collaborative Research: Cross-Scale Interactions & the Design of Adaptive Reservoir Operations

该项目解决了缓解洪涝和干旱的两个关键问题：最大限度地减少洪涝和干旱风险之间的权衡，以及选择在系统中投资缓解风险的地方的权衡。本项目将通过在不同水文气候和治理环境下的详细案例研究来研究这些权衡：加州门多西诺湖和中国湖北省丹江口水库。在这两种情况下，水资源管理人员都在探索使用流量预测来改善水库的操作，以便在不断变化的条件下控制洪水和供水。该项目将收集和分析水文、基础设施和决策方面的数据，以研究业务变化的影响，并确定促进适应的战略。将开发一个模型来测试减少洪水和干旱影响的做法如何在不同的环境和社会背景下跨尺度（例如，区域、市政）相互作用并对变化作出反应。项目团队将与决策者合作，从他们的经验中学习，并开发适合他们需求的工具。该项目还将通过指导研究经验和新的课程模块，为水文和水资源系统分析的下一代劳动力提供教育和培训机会。该项目将解决三个关键问题：1)水库作业的变化如何通过部分工程、部分演变的流域系统传播？2)水文或治理系统的哪些特征影响了这种传播？3)什么样的制度设计选择能够实现适应性管理？虽然所开发的基于案例的模型可以在两种具体情况下解决研究问题，但该项目还旨在获得关于减轻洪涝和干旱风险的关键特征和过程的一般性知识，以及对意外脆弱性的见解。为了建立理论，该项目还将生成一个基于微分方程的通用水库和流域系统的社会水文模型。该模型将用于探索在一系列条件下长期出现的系统级模式，这将使我们能够建立对理解水库运行规则变化影响至关重要的水文和制度因素的理论。总之，这项工作将在四个方面推进适应性洪涝和干旱管理的知识：1)说明跨尺度水库运行中洪涝和干旱缓解目标之间的权衡；2)识别水库运行变化在整个系统中传播的过程；3)量化控制水流变异性的好处和局限性；4)证明制度设计选择在发现关键变化和促进响应方面的影响。这一新知识将解决规划更高流量变异性的实际挑战，同时降低产生意外脆弱性的风险。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project addresses two key tensions in flood and drought mitigation: tradeoffs between minimizing flood and drought risk, and tradeoffs in the choice of where in the system to invest in risk mitigation. This project will study these tradeoffs through detailed case studies in distinct hydro-climatic and governance settings: Lake Mendocino, California and Danjiangkou Reservoir in Hubei Province, China. In both cases, water managers are exploring the use of streamflow forecasts to improve reservoir operations for flood control and water supply under changing conditions. This project will collect and analyze data on hydrology, infrastructure and decision making to study the impacts of operational changes and identify strategies that facilitate adaptation. A model will be developed to test how practices to reduce flood and drought impacts interact across scales (e.g., regional, municipal) and respond to change, in different environmental and social settings. The project team will work with decision makers to learn from their experiences and develop tools that fit their needs. The project will also provide education and training opportunities for the next-generation workforce in hydrology and water resources systems analysis through mentored research experiences and new course modules.This project will address three key questions: 1) How will a change in reservoir operations propagate through the partially-engineered, partially-evolving watershed system? 2) What characteristics of the hydrological or governance system affect this propagation? 3) What institutional design choices enable adaptive management? While the case-based models developed can address the research question in two specific contexts, the project also aims to derive generalizable knowledge about the features and processes critical to mitigating flood and drought risk as well as insights into unintended fragilities. To build theory, the project will also generate a differential equation-based socio-hydrological model of a generic reservoir and watershed system. This model will be used to explore the system-level patterns that emerge in the long-run under a range of conditions, which will enable us to build theory on the hydrological and institutional factors critical to understanding the effects of reservoir operating rule changes. In summary, this work will advance knowledge of adaptive flood and drought management in four ways: 1) illustrate the tradeoffs between flood and drought mitigation goals in reservoir operations across scales; 2) identify the processes through which reservoir operation changes propagate through the system; 3) quantify the benefits and limitations of controlling streamflow variability; and 4) demonstrate the impact of institutional design choices in detecting critical changes and facilitating response. This new knowledge will address the practical challenge of planning for higher streamflow variability, while mitigating the risk of generating unintended fragilities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.