NSFGEO-NERC: CHANCE - understanding Compound flooding in the past, present and future for nortH AtlaNtic CoastlinEs

NSFGEO-NERC：机会 - 了解北大西洋海岸线过去、现在和未来的复合洪水

• 批准号: 1929382
• 负责人: Thomas Wahl
• 金额: $ 25.22万
• 依托单位: The University of Central Florida Board of Trustees
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1929382&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSFGEO; NERC; CHANCE; understanding; Compound

Many populated coastal regions are vulnerable to multiple types of flooding. Storm surge and waves can impact coastal regions from the ocean and heavy precipitation can cause river and urban flooding. These kinds of flooding events have generally been considered independently, but it is well known that the same storms can produce multiple types of flooding. This project will address these multiple, coincidental flooding events, known as compound flooding. The main societal impact of the award will be in the areas of weather forecasting and risk management. The research team will engage other federal agencies, such as the Army Corps of Engineers and the US Geological Survey, to relay the results of the project to the infrastructure planning communities. This project also represents an international collaboration between scientists from the US and the UK.This project addresses the topic of compound flooding, where multiple flood drivers occur concurrently or in close succession. Compound flooding is especially impactful along coastlines, where storm surges, waves, river flooding, and direct runoff can combine to exacerbate potential flooding situations. The research team, including personnel from the UK and US, plan to conduct a variety of analyses, including dependence analyses, state-of-the-art weather typing approaches, multivariate extreme value analysis, and advanced ensemble hydrodynamic modelling to determine where and why compound flood events occur. The specific goals of the proposal are to: 1) Determine relevant variables that can lead to compound events along coastlines on both sides of the North Atlantic and assess the spatial footprints of the individual drivers; 2) Assess which large-scale weather types and other conditions led to the identified compound events in the past and determine if and how the frequency of compound events has changed in the past and may change in the future; 3) Quantify the likelihood of the occurrence of compound events along different stretches of coastline including relevant variables and spatial footprints; and 4) Integrate the results to quantify the extent to which compounding effects from multiple flood sources exacerbate impacts to coastal communities.This is a project that is jointly funded by the National Science Foundation's Directorate of Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget and the investigators associated with their own country.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

许多人口稠密的沿海地区容易受到多种类型的洪水的影响。 风暴潮和海浪会从海洋影响沿海地区，强降水会导致河流和城市洪水。 这些类型的洪水事件通常被单独考虑，但众所周知，同一风暴可以产生多种类型的洪水。 该项目将解决这些多个，巧合的洪水事件，称为复合洪水。 该奖项的主要社会影响将在天气预报和风险管理领域。 该研究小组将与其他联邦机构合作，如陆军工程兵团和美国地质调查局，将该项目的结果传达给基础设施规划界。 该项目也代表了来自美国和英国的科学家之间的国际合作。该项目涉及复合洪水的主题，即多个洪水驱动因素同时或连续发生。 复合洪水对沿着地区的影响尤其严重，风暴潮、海浪、河流洪水和直接径流可能联合收割机加剧潜在的洪水情况。 包括来自英国和美国的人员在内的研究小组计划进行各种分析，包括相关性分析，最先进的天气类型方法，多变量极值分析和先进的集合流体动力学建模，以确定复合洪水事件发生的地点和原因。 该提案的具体目标是：1）确定可能导致北大西洋两岸沿着复合事件的相关变量，并评估各个驱动因素的空间足迹;（2）评估哪个大-尺度天气类型和其他条件导致了过去识别的复合事件，并确定复合事件的频率在过去是否发生了变化以及如何发生变化，未来; 3）量化复合事件沿沿着不同海岸线发生的可能性，包括相关变量和空间足迹; 4）综合结果以量化多个洪水源的复合效应加剧对沿海社区影响的程度。这是一个由美国国家科学基金会地球科学理事会（NSF/GEO）联合资助的项目。和英国国家环境研究理事会（NERC）通过NSF/GEO-NERC牵头机构协议。该协议允许美国/英国提交一份联合提案，并由研究者拥有最大预算比例的机构进行同行评审。一旦成功地共同确定了一个奖项，每个机构都会为与自己国家有关的预算和调查人员提供资金。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Hydrologic risk from consecutive dry and wet extremes at the global scale

• DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ac77de
• 发表时间: 2022-06
• 期刊: Environmental Research Communications
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: M. Rashid;T. Wahl

On the generation of high‐resolution probabilistic design events capturing the joint occurrence of rainfall and storm surge in coastal basins

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.7825
• 发表时间: 2022-08
• 期刊: International Journal of Climatology
• 作者: Hanbeen Kim;G. Villarini;R. Jane;T. Wahl;S. Misra;Alexander Michalek

Assessing the dependence structure between oceanographic, fluvial, and pluvial flooding drivers along the United States coastline

评估美国海岸线海洋、河流和雨洪洪水驱动因素之间的依赖结构

• DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Nasr, Ahmed A.;Wahl, Thomas;Rashid, Md Mamunur;Camus, Paula;Haigh, Ivan D.
• 通讯作者: Haigh, Ivan D.

On the compounding of nitrate loads and discharge

论硝酸盐负荷与排放的复合

• DOI: 10.1002/jeq2.20458
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Environmental Quality
• 影响因子: 2.4
• 作者: Kim, Taereem;Villarini, Gabriele;Kim, Hanbeen;Jane, Robert;Wahl, Thomas
• 通讯作者: Wahl, Thomas

Daily synoptic conditions associated with occurrences of compound events in estuaries along North Atlantic coastlines

与北大西洋海岸线河口复合事件发生相关的每日天气状况

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.7556
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: International Journal of Climatology
• 作者: Camus, Paula;Haigh, Ivan D.;Wahl, Thomas;Nasr, Ahmed A.;Méndez, Fernando J.;Darby, Stephen E.;Nicholls, Robert J.
• 通讯作者: Nicholls, Robert J.