Quantifying the Distributional Consequences of Trade and Policy Responses

量化贸易和政策反应的分配后果

• 批准号: 1948800
• 负责人: Michael Waugh
• 金额: $ 28.2万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-04-01 至 2025-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1948800&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Quantifying; Distributional; Consequences; Trade; Policy

AbstractDistributional consequences of trade are manifold and are at the forefront of major policy debates. There are insufficient mechanisms to insure against trade losses while preserving the gains for the winners. Similarly, labor has limited ability to move to the locations, sectors, and firms that gain from trade. All these factors contribute to inequality as a result of trade shocks. This project contributes to this debate in three ways. First, the project develops a quantitative framework to examine the distributional effects of trade. Second, the project uses this framework to evaluate the extent to which households can adjust through migration, labor supply, and self-insurance to changes in trade exposure, and, thus quantify the welfare effects of trade. Third, the project empirically examines how households adjust consumption in response to trade shocks. This project develops a dynamic quantitative framework with incomplete markets, Ricardian Trade, and frictional labor markets. The framework is calibrated to match aggregate and difference-in-difference evidence for the US and then study the transition dynamics of the economy in response to a trade liberalization. The calibrated model is used as laboratory to answer questions on the aggregate effects and the heterogeneity in the gains and losses from trade. The quantitative framework further highlights an open, unstudied issue regarding the labor-market-induced consumption effects of trade. This project provides new evidence on these effects by focusing on recent trade policies between 2017 and 2019.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

摘要 贸易的分配后果是多方面的，并且处于重大政策辩论的前沿。没有足够的机制来确保贸易损失，同时保留赢家的收益。同样，劳动力向从贸易中获益的地点、部门和企业流动的能力也有限。所有这些因素都会加剧贸易冲击造成的不平等。该项目通过三个方式为这场辩论做出了贡献。首先，该项目开发了一个定量框架来研究贸易的分配效应。其次，该项目利用该框架来评估家庭可以在多大程度上通过移民、劳动力供应和自我保险来调整贸易风险的变化，从而量化贸易的福利影响。第三，该项目实证研究了家庭如何调整消费以应对贸易冲击。该项目开发了一个包含不完全市场、李嘉图贸易和摩擦劳动力市场的动态定量框架。该框架经过校准，以匹配美国的总体证据和双重证据，然后研究经济因贸易自由化而发生的转型动态。校准模型被用作实验室来回答有关贸易损益的总体效应和异质性的问题。定量框架进一步凸显了一个开放的、未经研究的问题，即劳动力市场引发的贸易消费效应。该项目通过关注 2017 年至 2019 年之间的近期贸易政策，为这些影响提供了新的证据。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。