Quantifying the Distributional Consequences of Trade and Policy Responses

摘要贸易的分配后果是多方面的，是主要政策辩论的前沿。没有足够的机制来保证贸易损失，同时为赢家保留收益。同样，劳动力转移到从贸易中获益的地点、部门和公司的能力有限。所有这些因素都助长了贸易冲击造成的不平等。这个项目在三个方面促成了这场辩论。首先，该项目开发了一个定量框架来检验贸易的分配效应。其次，该项目利用这一框架评估家庭通过移民、劳动力供给和自我保险对贸易风险变化的调整程度，从而量化贸易的福利效应。第三，该项目实证考察了家庭如何调整消费以应对贸易冲击。该项目开发了一个动态量化框架，包括不完全市场、李嘉图贸易和摩擦劳动力市场。该框架经过校准，以匹配美国的总体和差异中的差异证据，然后研究经济对贸易自由化的过渡动态。校正后的模型被用作实验室，以回答有关贸易收益和损失的总体效应和异质性的问题。定量框架进一步突出了一个开放的、未经研究的问题，即贸易对劳动力市场的消费效应。本项目通过关注2017年至2019年期间的最新贸易政策，为这些影响提供了新的证据。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractDistributional consequences of trade are manifold and are at the forefront of major policy debates. There are insufficient mechanisms to insure against trade losses while preserving the gains for the winners. Similarly, labor has limited ability to move to the locations, sectors, and firms that gain from trade. All these factors contribute to inequality as a result of trade shocks. This project contributes to this debate in three ways. First, the project develops a quantitative framework to examine the distributional effects of trade. Second, the project uses this framework to evaluate the extent to which households can adjust through migration, labor supply, and self-insurance to changes in trade exposure, and, thus quantify the welfare effects of trade. Third, the project empirically examines how households adjust consumption in response to trade shocks. This project develops a dynamic quantitative framework with incomplete markets, Ricardian Trade, and frictional labor markets. The framework is calibrated to match aggregate and difference-in-difference evidence for the US and then study the transition dynamics of the economy in response to a trade liberalization. The calibrated model is used as laboratory to answer questions on the aggregate effects and the heterogeneity in the gains and losses from trade. The quantitative framework further highlights an open, unstudied issue regarding the labor-market-induced consumption effects of trade. This project provides new evidence on these effects by focusing on recent trade policies between 2017 and 2019.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.