P2C2: Tropical Response to Hemispheric Forcing--Testing Mechanisms Using Paleoclimate Data and Climate Models

P2C2：热带对半球强迫的响应——利用古气候数据和气候模型测试机制

• 批准号: 2002528
• 负责人: Pedro Di Nezio
• 金额: $ 74.34万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2002528&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Tropical; Response; Hemispheric; Forcing

This project aims to identify and investigate the mechanisms linking the abrupt cooling events that occurred during the last glacial period over the North Atlantic (Heinrich events) and altered rainfall patterns throughout the global tropics. The research activities will address these questions by combining climate models and paleoclimate data. Specifically, existing proxy climate records will be used to produce new robust and unbiased syntheses of rainfall and sea-surface temperature changes during three different past intervals when the North Atlantic abruptly cooled and compare them against new and existing climate model simulations with the objective of testing the dominant mechanisms driving the tropical response to hemispheric forcing. These mechanisms will be contrasted with the responses to other hemispheric forcings, anthropogenic aerosols and volcanic eruptions, to assess their roles, and therefore improve the confidence of climate variability model predictions. The research has the potential to produce a complete theory of how the global tropics respond to North Atlantic cooling. This theory will provide a more complete understanding of the processes that give rise to inter-hemispheric asymmetries in tropical climate - one of the first order features of the Earth’s climate, as well as its response to climatic perturbations with inter-hemispheric asymmetries, such as anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic eruptions, or arctic sea ice loss. The potential Broader Impacts include advancing theoretical understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate perturbations transmitted through the tropics which has the potential to improve model predictions to a range of climate forcings, and more specifically, predictions of changes in tropical rainfall in heavily populated areas (the Americas, Africa, Asia). The data synthesis as well as model simulation will be made publicly available for the broad paleoclimate community as well as local students. Other Broader Impacts include training the next generation of climate researchers through the research framework developed in this project that will be incorporated in the researcher’s teaching activities. In addition, the researchers will be involved in outreach activities (Tournament of Science Olympiad) with the goal to advance climate system literacy in high school education.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在确定和调查北大西洋末次冰期期间发生的突然冷却事件（海因里希事件）与全球热带地区降雨模式改变之间的联系机制。研究活动将通过结合气候模型和古气候数据来解决这些问题。具体而言，将利用现有的代用气候记录，对北大西洋突然冷却的过去三个不同时期的降雨量和海面温度变化进行新的可靠和公正的综合，并将其与新的和现有的气候模型模拟进行比较，目的是测试驱动热带对半球强迫的反应的主要机制。这些机制将与对其他半球强迫、人为气溶胶和火山爆发的反应进行对比，以评估其作用，从而提高气候变率模型预测的可信度。这项研究有可能产生一个完整的理论，说明全球热带地区如何应对北大西洋的降温。这一理论将提供一个更完整的理解的过程，引起半球间的不对称性在热带气候-地球气候的第一阶特征之一，以及它的响应与半球间的不对称性，如人为气溶胶，火山爆发，或北极海冰损失的气候扰动。潜在的更广泛的影响包括推进对通过热带传播的气候扰动机制的理论理解，这有可能改善对一系列气候强迫的模型预测，更具体地说，预测人口稠密地区（美洲，非洲，亚洲）的热带降雨量变化。数据合成以及模型模拟将公开提供给广大的古气候界以及当地学生。其他更广泛的影响包括通过本项目中制定的研究框架培训下一代气候研究人员，该框架将纳入研究人员的教学活动。此外，研究人员将参与推广活动（科学奥林匹克竞赛），目标是提高高中教育中的气候系统素养。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。