Collaborative Research: Using Big Data to Analyze Maritime Conflict

合作研究：利用大数据分析海上冲突

• 批准号: 2017096
• 负责人: Nico Ravanilla
• 金额: $ 8.2万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-08-01 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2017096&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Using; Big; Data

Maritime conflict has been on the rise globally, with hotspots across the world's regions. Despite growing coverage in the news media, among think tanks, and great attention from policy makers and politicians, there is limited systematic data on conflict incidents in maritime regions. This project will fill two important gaps. First, it will generate a multi-faceted dataset on maritime conflict that will be shared publicly for use by scholars and journalists. Second, although theorists have offered many competing accounts for what to expect in the realm of maritime conflict, there have yet to be any compelling empirical investigations of what has taken place in the past decade. This project will develop data collection techniques that will be applicable to a range of maritime conflict-affected regions, which also have substantial national security implications.Social scientists have increasingly turned to data-driven approaches to answer important questions regarding international security. Within the world of conflict research, comprehensive datasets have played a critical role in advancing scientific knowledge (e.g. AidData, COW, ACLED). Thus far, however, there has been limited systematic empirical analysis of maritime conflict; a major hurdle is a lack of data. In this project, the PIs acquire and consolidate comprehensive data on maritime incidents and make substantial progress toward empirically testing and resolving competing theories for how maritime conflict may play out over the next decade. The project refines prevailing theories of power transition, taking into account the slow but steady change in maritime capabilities of superpowers as well as the growing economic and political interdependence among nation-states since the end of the Cold War, to generate new testable hypotheses. The analysis utilizes the overlapping EEZ zones and territorial waters, variation in off-shore natural resource distribution, and changes in domestic politics to test the proposed hypotheses. The data will be made publicly available and legible to other social scientists so that experts can replicate it for their own research purposes.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海上冲突在全球范围内一直在增加，整个世界各地都有热点。尽管新闻媒体，智囊团中的覆盖范围不断增长，并且受到政策制定者和政客的极大关注，但海上事件的系统性数据有限。该项目将填补两个重要的空白。首先，它将生成有关海事冲突的多方面数据集，该数据集将公开共享，以供学者和记者使用。其次，尽管理论家为海上冲突领域的期望提供了许多相互竞争的叙述，但仍未对过去十年中发生的事情进行任何令人信服的经验调查。该项目将开发数据收集技术，这些技术将适用于一系列受海洋冲突影响的地区，这些区域也具有很大的国家安全影响。社会科学家越来越多地转向数据驱动的方法，以回答有关国际安全的重要问题。在冲突研究的世界中，全面的数据集在促进科学知识（例如艾滋病，牛，Acled）方面发挥了关键作用。然而，到目前为止，对海事冲突的系统经验分析有限。一个主要的障碍是缺乏数据。在该项目中，PIS收购并巩固了有关海事事件的综合数据，并在经验测试和解决竞争理论方面取得了重大进展，以了解海上冲突在未来十年内如何发挥作用。考虑到自冷战结束以来，该项目的海上能力以及民族国家之间不断增长的经济和政治相互依存的情况，可以提炼出盛行的权力转变理论，以产生新的可测试假设。该分析利用了重叠的EEZ区域和领土水，离岸自然资源分布的变化以及国内政治的变化来检验拟议的假设。这些数据将公开可用，其他社会科学家可以清晰可见，以便专家可以出于自己的研究目的进行复制。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子和更广泛影响的评估评估来获得支持的。