Collaborative Research: MRA: Scale, Space, and Time: A Unifying Approach to Aquatic Invasions

入侵物种对生物多样性和经济安全构成严重威胁，对河流生态系统产生严重影响。然而，尽管经过了几十年的研究，生态学仍然面临着一个明显的悖论：许多入侵理论彼此不一致，但每个理论都有强有力的证据支持。这个悖论之所以存在，是因为大多数研究只在三个关键的生态维度中进行：规模、空间和时间。该项目将采用跨尺度的方法，从小的溪流段到整个流域，在许多时间步骤上跨越景观。在此过程中，这项工作将使用宏观系统框架将入侵理论与所有三个维度的经验证据联系起来，以进一步了解物种入侵是如何发生的以及如何预防或管理它们。这项研究的重点是河流鱼类——北美最多样化但也最濒危的生物之一。在此过程中，该项目将生成一个大范围、高分辨率的鱼类分布数据集，该数据集可在项目生命周期之外用于多种目的。该数据集可以连接到国家生态观测网（NEON）和其他联邦政府支持的数据，以推断广泛的机制模式和过程。这项工作的结果将用于开发一种交互式空间规划工具，用于预测北美最大的连通河网密西西比河流域未来的鱼类入侵。该工具将通过网络研讨会、网站和社交媒体等多种交流渠道共享。20多名研究生和本科生将在项目过程中接受培训。该项目的目标是了解自然和人类创造的传播网络（如河流和道路）如何与入侵驱动因素（如栖息地和物种特征）相互作用，以确定跨尺度入侵模式。这项工作将在密西西比河流域进行；河流为研究依赖于规模的入侵过程提供了一个独特的机会，因为流域创造了鱼类分布的离散边界。因此，许多最多产的入侵者不是来自遥远的大陆，而是来自附近的流域。因此，河流鱼类的原生状态依赖于规模，这影响了入侵的概念化和建模方式。利用丰富的历史和当代鱼类分布数据集，该项目采取了三管齐下的方法：1)使用贝叶斯工具来量化跨空间尺度的入侵驱动因素；2)结合元群落和入侵生态学的概念，研究跨空间的入侵网络动态；3)预测物种入侵的时间轨迹。该项目将整合来自这三个研究目标的信息，以预测未来整个景观的河流入侵。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Invasive species pose a serious threat to biodiversity and economic security, with acute effects in river ecosystems. Yet despite decades of research, ecology still faces a glaring paradox: many invasion theories are at odds with one another, but each is supported by strong evidence. The paradox exists because most studies are conducted in only one of three key ecological dimensions: scale, space, and time. This project will take a cross-scale approach from small stream segments to whole watersheds across the landscape at numerous time steps. In doing so, this work will use a macrosystems framework to link invasion theories with empirical evidence across all three dimensions to further our understanding of how species invasions happen and how to prevent or manage them. This research will focus on riverine fishes—one of the most diverse yet imperiled groups of organisms in North America. In the process, this project will generate a large-extent, fine-resolution dataset of fish occurrences that can be used for numerous purposes beyond the lifetime of the project. This dataset can be linked to the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and other federally-supported data to infer broad mechanistic patterns and processes. Results from this work will be used to develop an interactive spatial planning tool for predicting future fish invasions across the Mississippi River basin—the largest connected river network in North America. This tool will be shared via numerous communication outlets including webinars, websites, and social media. A diverse group of over 20 graduate and undergraduate students will be trained in the course of the project. The goal of this project is to understand how natural and human-created dispersal networks (e.g. rivers and roads) interact with invasion drivers (e.g. habitat and species traits) to determine cross-scale invasion patterns. This work will be conducted in the Mississippi River Basin; rivers provide a unique opportunity for studying scale-dependent invasion processes because watersheds create discrete boundaries of fish species distribution. Accordingly, many of the most prolific invaders arrive not from distant continents, but from nearby watersheds. Native status for riverine fishes is thus scale-dependent, which affects how invasions are conceptualized and modeled. Using rich datasets of historical and contemporary fish distribution, this project takes a three-pronged approach: 1) using Bayesian tools to quantify invasion drivers across spatial scales; 2) linking concepts from metacommunity and invasion ecology to investigate invasion network dynamics across space; and 3) predicting trajectories of species invasions through time. The project will integrate information from these three research objectives to forecast future riverine invasions across the landscape.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.