RUI: Pattern and process in four decades of change on Caribbean reefs

珊瑚礁危机是指影响全世界热带造礁珊瑚的高死亡率，以及珊瑚礁在本世纪内功能性灭绝的可能性很大。对这些趋势的了解来自对珊瑚礁的监测，以评估其长期的健康状况，其中信息量最大的项目提供了长达数十年的高分辨率信息。这些项目既描述了珊瑚礁是如何变化的，也回答了有关变化的原因和珊瑚礁未来将持续存在的形式的问题。这个项目的重点是美国水域的珊瑚礁，特别是美属维尔京群岛圣约翰附近的珊瑚礁。这些珊瑚礁在维尔京群岛国家公园内受到保护，比世界上任何地方的大多数珊瑚礁都得到了更一致和更详细的研究。基于33年的研究，该项目将对这些栖息地的监测再延长5年，并利用新兴的知识基础和圣约翰珊瑚礁创建的生物实验室，解决阻碍小珊瑚重新繁殖的瓶颈的原因和后果。这项工作是通过每年一次的考察来完成的，由教职员工、研究生、本科生和教师组成，并在北岭的加州州立大学和塔拉哈西的佛罗里达州立大学对样本进行分析。学生和教师协助完成该项目的中心研究目标，但也参与独立学习，并与加勒比地区丰富多样的社会背景和自然历史相结合。科学议程的范围延伸到加州的学校，向学生介绍海洋动物在生态系统健康中所扮演的角色，生物界长期变化的概念，以及科学参与在促进积极环境成果方面的作用。除了产生一系列专注于科学发现的项目成果外，该项目还促进STEM职业发展，培养具有全球意识的科学家和教育工作者，使他们能够支持21世纪美国的科学议程。该项目利用加勒比海珊瑚礁最长的时间序列分析之一，将时间序列从33年延长到38年，并测试了解决珊瑚礁群落结构变化的原因和后果的假设。该项目重点关注维尔京群岛国家公园（VINP）内和美属维尔京群岛圣约翰沿岸的珊瑚礁，并与保护（VINP）和当地学术界（维尔京群岛大学）的利益相关者进行了整合。从1987年开始，该项目在一个小空间区域内进行了面向细节的分析，以补充VINP进行的大规模分析。这些努力的结果创造了一个无与伦比的环境，在这个环境中，生态学相关的假设可以被测试，以阐明驱动生态变化的机制。基于图像和调查的分析，33年的数据揭示了这些珊瑚礁已经过渡到低丰度珊瑚状态的程度，以及阻碍珊瑚新生形成成年大小的瓶颈的重要性。这个项目的智力价值是利用这些发现来解决八个假设：（H1）长期变化定义了一个隐秘的制度变化，低珊瑚丰富度通过以下方式得到强化：（H2）增强的群落恢复力，（H3）低定居后成功，（H4） peyssonnelid algal外壳（PAC）对幼珊瑚的负面影响，（H5）幼珊瑚无法将其表型与未来条件相匹配，（H6）遗传多样性减少导致的种群增长受损，（H7） Diadema海胆周围无PAC的光环对珊瑚的补充有好处。（H8）在景观尺度上发生的生物同质化。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The coral reef crisis refers to the high rates of death affecting tropical reef-building corals throughout the world, and the strong likelihood that coral reefs will become functionally extinct within the current century. Knowledge of these trends comes from the monitoring of coral reefs to evaluate their health over time, with the most informative projects providing high-resolution information extending over decades. Such projects describe both how reefs are changing, and answer questions addressing the causes of the changes and the form in which reefs will persist in the future. This project focuses on coral reefs in United States waters, specifically around St. John in the US Virgin Islands. These reefs are protected within the Virgin Islands National Park, and have been studied more consistently and in greater detail than most reefs anywhere in the world. Building from 33 years of research, this project extends monitoring of these habitats by another five years, and uses the emerging base of knowledge, and the biological laboratory created by the reefs of St. John, to address the causes and consequences of the bottleneck preventing baby corals from repopulating the reefs. The work is accomplished with annual expeditions, staffed by faculty, graduate students, undergraduates, and teachers, coupled with analyses of samples at California State University, Northridge, and Florida State University, Tallahassee. The students and teachers assist with the research goals at the center of this project, but also engage in independent study and integrate with the rich and diverse societal context and natural history of the Caribbean. The scope of the science agenda extends to schools in California, where students are introduced to the roles played by marine animals in ecosystem health, concepts of long-term change in the biological world, and the role of science engagement in promoting positive environmental outcomes. In addition to generating a wide spectrum of project deliverables focusing on scientific discovery, the project promotes STEM careers and train globally aware scientists and educators capable of supporting the science agenda of the United States in the 21st Century. This project leverages one of the longest time-series analyses of Caribbean coral reefs to extend the time-series from 33 to 38 years, and it tests hypotheses addressing the causes and consequences of changing coral reef community structure. The project focuses on reefs within the Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and along the shore of St. John, US Virgin Islands, and is integrated with stakeholders working in conservation (VINP) and local academia (University of the Virgin Islands). Beginning in 1987, the project has addressed detail-oriented analyses within a small spatial area that complements the large-scale analyses conducted by the VINP. The results of these efforts create an unrivaled context within which ecologically relevant hypotheses can be tested to elucidate mechanisms driving ecological change. Building from image- and survey- based analyses, 33 years of data reveal the extent to which these reefs have transitioned to a low-abundance coral state, and the importance of the bottleneck preventing coral recruits from contributing to adult size classes. The intellectual merits of this project leverage these discoveries to address eight hypotheses: (H1) long-term changes are defining a cryptic regime change, with the low coral abundance reinforced by, (H2) enhanced community resilience, (H3) low post-settlement success, (H4) negative effects of peyssonnelid algal crusts (PAC) on juvenile corals, (H5) inability of juvenile corals to match their phenotypes to future conditions, (H6) impaired population growth caused by reduced genetic diversity, (H7) the premium placed on PAC-free halos around Diadema sea urchins for coral recruitment, and (H8) biotic homogenization occurring on a landscape-scale.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.