INFEWS: U.S.-China: Food-Energy-Water Feedback Mechanism, Integrated Modeling and Coordinated Management: A Comparative Study of China Jing-Jin-Ji Region and US Central Valley CA

该研究项目将使用综合农业土地利用、能源生产和水文系统的建模技术来预测未来的食物-能源-水（FEW）关系。将以美国加州中央山谷和中国京津冀地区为案例研究，制定统一的情景分析方法，以评估基础设施发展和政策重点之间的潜在协同效应和权衡。政策模拟的结果将为未来资源限制的潜在解决方案提供信息。在美国的案例研究区域，建模将为政策讨论提供更详细的中央山谷土地利用系统描述，同时考虑到新政策和可再生能源选址考虑下农业用地迁移的经济机会成本。额外的模拟分析将测试每个地区应对挑战的替代解决方案，包括预留地下水储存、新的水交易计划，以评估这些解决方案是否能够适应未来的社会经济、政策和环境条件。虽然之前的nexus研究已经将土地利用考虑纳入了代表农业生产可能性的考虑，但大规模可再生能源扩张、农业用地资源管理和未来不同气候条件下水资源需求之间的动态反馈需要进一步探索，正如本项目所计划的那样。此外，这项研究将通过提供新的视角，在农业用水需求下，该地区潜在的土地利用轨迹可能随着可再生能源基础设施投资和地下水管理动态而演变，明确地为中央山谷地区公开可用的加州价值集成网络（CALVIN）水力经济建模基础设施提供更新信息。与中国研究团队合作的协调情景分析将对不断变化的社会经济、政策和环境条件下的联系挑战和解决方案进行比较评估。研究小组将深入探讨对FEW关系的制度约束如何影响最佳资源配置，以及可能改善FEW关系可持续性结果的潜在解决方案。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project will use modeling techniques that integrate agricultural land use, energy generation, and hydrologic systems to predict future food-energy-water (FEW) relationships. With the Central Valley, California (United States) and the Jing-Jin-Ji region (China) as case studies, a harmonized scenario-analysis approach will be developed to evaluate potential synergies and trade-offs of infrastructure development and policy priorities. Results from policy simulations will inform potential solutions to future resource limitations. In the U.S. case-study region, modeling will inform policy discussions by offering a more detailed depiction of land-use systems in the Central Valley, while accounting for the economic opportunity costs of agricultural land displacement under new policies and renewable energy-siting considerations. Additional simulation analysis will test alternative solutions to challenges in each region, including groundwater storage set-asides, new water trading schemes to assess whether these solutions are resilient to future socioeconomic, policy, and environmental conditions.While previous nexus studies have incorporated land use considerations for representing agricultural production possibilities, the dynamic feedback between large-scale renewable energy expansion, agricultural land resource management, and water resource demands under alternative future climate conditions needs further exploration as planned for this project. Furthermore, this research will explicitly inform updates to the publicly available California Value Integrated Network (CALVIN) hydro-economic modeling infrastructure for the Central Valley region by offering new perspective potential land use trajectories in the region under agricultural water demands that might evolve over time with renewable energy infrastructure investments and groundwater management dynamics. Harmonized scenario analysis in collaboration with the Chinese research team will provide a comparative assessment of nexus challenges and solutions under changing socioeconomic, policy, and environmental conditions. The research team will offer insight into how institutional constraints on the FEW nexus can impact optimal resource allocation and potential solutions that could improve sustainability outcomes in the FEW nexus.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.