INFEWS: U.S.-China: Food-Energy-Water Feedback Mechanism, Integrated Modeling and Coordinated Management: A Comparative Study of China Jing-Jin-Ji Region and US Central Valley CA

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This research project will use modeling techniques that integrate agricultural land use, energy generation, and hydrologic systems to predict future food-energy-water (FEW) relationships. With the Central Valley, California (United States) and the Jing-Jin-Ji region (China) as case studies, a harmonized scenario-analysis approach will be developed to evaluate potential synergies and trade-offs of infrastructure development and policy priorities. Results from policy simulations will inform potential solutions to future resource limitations. In the U.S. case-study region, modeling will inform policy discussions by offering a more detailed depiction of land-use systems in the Central Valley, while accounting for the economic opportunity costs of agricultural land displacement under new policies and renewable energy-siting considerations. Additional simulation analysis will test alternative solutions to challenges in each region, including groundwater storage set-asides, new water trading schemes to assess whether these solutions are resilient to future socioeconomic, policy, and environmental conditions.While previous nexus studies have incorporated land use considerations for representing agricultural production possibilities, the dynamic feedback between large-scale renewable energy expansion, agricultural land resource management, and water resource demands under alternative future climate conditions needs further exploration as planned for this project. Furthermore, this research will explicitly inform updates to the publicly available California Value Integrated Network (CALVIN) hydro-economic modeling infrastructure for the Central Valley region by offering new perspective potential land use trajectories in the region under agricultural water demands that might evolve over time with renewable energy infrastructure investments and groundwater management dynamics. Harmonized scenario analysis in collaboration with the Chinese research team will provide a comparative assessment of nexus challenges and solutions under changing socioeconomic, policy, and environmental conditions. The research team will offer insight into how institutional constraints on the FEW nexus can impact optimal resource allocation and potential solutions that could improve sustainability outcomes in the FEW nexus.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.