Collaborative Research: RAPID: Integrative Modeling of Intervention Serology and the Role of Shield Immunity in Reducing COVID-19 Epidemic Spread

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Developing intervention strategies that can reduce transmission and alleviate the impacts of social distancing is an essential goal of near- and long-term public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This project combines epidemic models of COVID-19 with serological testing modules to develop actionable policies to robustly identify recovered individuals who have protective antibodies to SARS-CoV-2019 as a means to (i) reduce infection transmission; (ii) facilitate interaction substitution that can reduce transmission risk (the basis for ‘shield immunity’); (iii) enable safer return to normal economic activity. Findings from shield immunity modeling studies will be released via open-source software, disseminated via policy-making documents that guide the design, interpretation, and action-taking from serological testing initiatives, and communicated with local, state, and national decision makers (e.g. CDC) via rapid response reports. The project will help assess feasibility of scaling up targeted serological testing and shield immunity-based interventions for the public good and economic re-engagement. Additionally, this project will provide training opportunities for graduate students and a postdoctoral scholar.Mitigation and suppression have emerged as the primary means to control and contain local spread of COVID-19. Public health interventions including lockdowns and shelter-in-place orders both reduce infections and raise questions of sustainability and long-term tactics, given the drastic consequences for socio-economic health and well-being. This project expands intervention approaches by extending the conceptual and practical foundations for ‘shield immunity’, i.e., the identification and deployment of recovered individuals as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution of otherwise risky contacts between individuals of unknown disease status. This project evaluates the practical potential of shield immunity by combining realistic scale-out of test capacity and reliability into an integrated framework with explicit consideration of individual status both with respect to disease status and with respect to serological test status. Altogether, the research integrates epidemiological dynamics, nonlinear dynamics, and statistical test analytics. The analysis of combined effects of interaction substitution, test scale, and test reliability will help inform efforts to prudently leverage information on seroconversion and immunity to help control COVID-19 spread while facilitating the safer return of individuals back to economic and social activities. This RAPID award is made by the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease Program in the Division of Environmental Biology, using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.