RII Track-4: Ecological Community Responses to Global Change: Predicting Effects on Community Dynamics and Ecosystem Stability

这项研究基础设施改善RII轨道4赠款将探索生态社区如何应对日益增加的环境变化，重点是高山生态系统。全球变化因素，如气温升高和降水量变化，对生态群落的稳定构成严重威胁。在高山生态系统中尤其如此，那里的气候变化迅速，气温和降水模式在不同年份之间变化很大。该项目将研究这些全球变化因素如何改变生态群落及其随时间的稳定性。拟议的工作将在怀俄明州内的司法研究能力产生变革性和持续的好处，积极改变非终身调查员的职业轨迹。这项工作将促进一个新的合作之间的调查，博士生，和尼沃特岭长期生态研究网络在科罗拉多落基山脉。研究人员和合作者将在尼沃特岭为怀俄明州和科罗拉多的科学家举办研讨会，带头跨州合作。此外，该项目将产生一个关于数据可视化和生物统计的教育模块，该模块将被整合到本科生物学专业所需的新开发课程中。该单元将通过一个开放源出版物广泛传播。人为的全球变化，如温度升高，更多变的降水制度，氮沉降，以前已被证明有严重的后果物种的持久性，但这些因素如何可能会改变生态群落，包括其同步模式和稳定性仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。拟议的项目将研究多个同时发生的全球变化驱动因素对高山群落动态和生态系统稳定性的影响。它将具体涉及以下目标：（1）确定全球变化驱动因素是否导致物种波动的同步性增加和生态系统的时间稳定性降低;（2）量化历史上经历过较高环境变异性的地点在应对当前人为变化时是否得到缓冲;（3）建立一个包含多种全球变化因子和物种相互作用的预测群落同步性和生态系统稳定性的理论模型。该项目将把研究人员在生态建模方面的专业知识与尼沃特岭50年的高山群落监测相结合，包括收集和分析来自几个正在进行的实验的群落组成数据。研究员和博士生还将进行物种萌发实验，并将创建一个新的全球变化下物种波动和生态系统稳定性的动态模型。该模型将与实证结果相结合，为未来的社区动态创建一个预测框架。该项目将提高我们预测群落同步性和生态系统稳定性将如何随着全球变化而变化的能力，特别是在高山生态系统中。该项目还有望产生持续的管辖利益，并提高生态理论和高山生态学界面的研究能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Research Infrastructure Improvement RII Track-4 grant will explore how ecological communities respond to increased environmental change, with a focus on alpine ecosystems. Global change factors, such as increases in temperature and changes in precipitation represent severe threats to the stability of ecological communities. This is especially true in alpine ecosystems where the climate is changing at a rapid rate with high variability among years in both temperature and precipitation patterns. The project will examine how these global change factors alter ecological communities and their stability through time. The proposed work will yield transformative and sustained benefits in jurisdictional research capacity within Wyoming, positively transforming the career trajectory of the non-tenured investigator. The work will foster a new collaboration between the investigator, a PhD student, and the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research Network in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The investigator and collaborators will host workshops at Niwot Ridge for Wyoming and Colorado scientists, spearheading cross-state collaborations. Additionally, the project will produce an educational module on data visualization and biological statistics that will be integrated into a newly developed course required for undergraduate biology majors. The module will be disseminated broadly through an open-source publication. Anthropogenic global change, such as increases in temperature, more variable precipitation regimes, and nitrogen deposition, have previously been demonstrated to have severe ramifications for species persistence, but how these factors may alter ecological communities, including their synchrony patterns and stability remains an open question. The proposed project will examine the effect of multiple, simultaneous global change drivers on alpine community dynamics and ecosystem stability. It will specifically address the following objectives: (1) determine if global change drivers yield increased synchrony of species’ fluctuations and decreased temporal stability of ecosystems; (2) quantify if locations that have historically experienced higher environmental variability are buffered in their responses to current anthropogenic changes; and (3) build a theoretical model for predicting community synchrony and ecosystem stability that incorporates multiple simultaneous global change factors and species interactions. The project will integrate the investigator’s expertise in ecological modeling with 50 years of alpine community monitoring at Niwot Ridge, including collecting and analyzing community composition data from several ongoing experiments. The investigator and PhD student will additionally conduct a species germination experiment and will create a new dynamical model of species fluctuations and ecosystem stability through time under global change. The model will be coupled with empirical results to create a predictive framework for future community dynamics. This project will enhance our ability to predict how community synchrony and ecosystem stability will change with increasing global change, especially in alpine ecosystems. The project is additionally expected to yield sustained jurisdictional benefits and enhanced research capacity at the interface of ecological theory and alpine ecology.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.