RII Track-4: Ecological Community Responses to Global Change: Predicting Effects on Community Dynamics and Ecosystem Stability

RII Track-4：生态群落对全球变化的响应：预测对群落动态和生态系统稳定性的影响

• 批准号: 2033292
• 负责人: Lauren Shoemaker
• 金额: $ 18.01万
• 依托单位: University of Wyoming
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-02-01 至 2025-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2033292&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RII; Track; Ecological; Community; Responses

This Research Infrastructure Improvement RII Track-4 grant will explore how ecological communities respond to increased environmental change, with a focus on alpine ecosystems. Global change factors, such as increases in temperature and changes in precipitation represent severe threats to the stability of ecological communities. This is especially true in alpine ecosystems where the climate is changing at a rapid rate with high variability among years in both temperature and precipitation patterns. The project will examine how these global change factors alter ecological communities and their stability through time. The proposed work will yield transformative and sustained benefits in jurisdictional research capacity within Wyoming, positively transforming the career trajectory of the non-tenured investigator. The work will foster a new collaboration between the investigator, a PhD student, and the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research Network in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The investigator and collaborators will host workshops at Niwot Ridge for Wyoming and Colorado scientists, spearheading cross-state collaborations. Additionally, the project will produce an educational module on data visualization and biological statistics that will be integrated into a newly developed course required for undergraduate biology majors. The module will be disseminated broadly through an open-source publication. Anthropogenic global change, such as increases in temperature, more variable precipitation regimes, and nitrogen deposition, have previously been demonstrated to have severe ramifications for species persistence, but how these factors may alter ecological communities, including their synchrony patterns and stability remains an open question. The proposed project will examine the effect of multiple, simultaneous global change drivers on alpine community dynamics and ecosystem stability. It will specifically address the following objectives: (1) determine if global change drivers yield increased synchrony of species’ fluctuations and decreased temporal stability of ecosystems; (2) quantify if locations that have historically experienced higher environmental variability are buffered in their responses to current anthropogenic changes; and (3) build a theoretical model for predicting community synchrony and ecosystem stability that incorporates multiple simultaneous global change factors and species interactions. The project will integrate the investigator’s expertise in ecological modeling with 50 years of alpine community monitoring at Niwot Ridge, including collecting and analyzing community composition data from several ongoing experiments. The investigator and PhD student will additionally conduct a species germination experiment and will create a new dynamical model of species fluctuations and ecosystem stability through time under global change. The model will be coupled with empirical results to create a predictive framework for future community dynamics. This project will enhance our ability to predict how community synchrony and ecosystem stability will change with increasing global change, especially in alpine ecosystems. The project is additionally expected to yield sustained jurisdictional benefits and enhanced research capacity at the interface of ecological theory and alpine ecology.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项研究基础设施改进RII Track-4 Grant将探讨生态社区如何应对环境变化的响应，重点是高山生态系统。全球变化因素，例如温度升高和降水变化代表了对生态群落稳定性的严重威胁。在高山生态系统中尤其如此，在高山生态系统中，气候在温度和降水模式下都以较高的变化速度变化。该项目将研究这些全球变化因素如何改变生态社区及其稳定性。拟议的工作将在怀俄明州的管辖权研究能力中产生变革性和持续的利益，从而积极地改变了非统治研究者的职业轨迹。这项工作将促进调查员，博士生和科罗拉多洛矶山脉的长期生态研究网络之间的新合作。调查员和合作者将在Niwot Ridge举办Wyoming和Colorado科学家的研讨会，率先率领跨州合作。此外，该项目将生成有关数据可视化和生物统计数据的教育模块，该模块将集成到本科生物学专业所需的新开发课程中。该模块将通过开源出版物广泛传播。以前已证明人为的全球变化，例如温度升高，更可变的降水状态和氮沉积，对物种持久性具有严重的影响，但是这些因素如何改变生态群落，包括其同步模式和稳定性，仍然是一个开放的问题。拟议的项目将研究多个，简单的全球变化驱动因素对高山社区动态和生态系统稳定性的影响。它将特别解决以下对象：（1）确定全球变化驱动因素是否会增加物种波动的同步和生态系统的暂时稳定性的提高； （2）数量如果历史上经历了更高的环境变异性的位置在对当前人为变化的反应中会缓冲； （3）建立一个理论模型，用于预测社区同步和生态系统稳定性，该模型结合了多种简单的全球变化因素和物种相互作用。该项目将将研究者在生态建模方面的专业知识与NIWOT Ridge的50年高山社区监测相结合，包括从几项正在进行的实验中收集和分析了社区组成数据。研究者和博士生将还将进行物种发芽实验，并将在全球变化下，创建一个新的动态模型，以实现物种波动和生态系统稳定性。该模型将与经验结果相结合，为未来的社区动态创建一个预测框架。该项目将增强我们预测社区同步和生态系统稳定性如何随着全球变化而变化的能力，尤其是在高山生态系统中。预计该项目将在生态理论和高山生态学的界面上产生持续的管辖权福利，并增强研究能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估该基金会的知识分子和更广泛的影响来审查标准。