RII Track-4: Ecological Community Responses to Global Change: Predicting Effects on Community Dynamics and Ecosystem Stability

这项研究基础设施改善RII Track-4赠款将探索生态社区如何应对日益加剧的环境变化，重点是高山生态系统。全球变化因素，如气温上升和降水变化，对生态群落的稳定构成严重威胁。在高山生态系统中尤其如此，那里的气候变化速度很快，在温度和降水模式上都有很大的年际变化。该项目将研究这些全球变化因素如何随着时间的推移改变生态群落及其稳定性。拟议的工作将在怀俄明州的司法研究能力方面产生变革性和持续性的好处，积极改变非终身调查员的职业轨迹。这项工作将促进研究人员、一名博士生和科罗拉多州落基山脉尼沃特岭长期生态研究网络之间的新合作。研究人员和合作者将在尼沃特岭为怀俄明州和科罗拉多州的科学家举办研讨会，带头开展跨州合作。此外，该项目将制作一个关于数据可视化和生物统计的教育模块，该模块将被整合到新开发的本科生物学专业必修课中。该单元将通过开放源码出版物广泛传播。人类活动造成的全球变化，如气温升高、降水系统的多变和氮沉积，已经被证明对物种的持久性有严重的影响，但这些因素如何改变生态群落，包括它们的同步性和稳定性，仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。拟议的项目将研究多个同时的全球变化驱动因素对高山群落动态和生态系统稳定性的影响。它将具体涉及以下目标：(1)确定全球变化驱动因素是否导致物种波动的同步性增加，生态系统的时间稳定性降低；(2)量化历史上经历过较高环境变异性的地点在对当前人为变化的反应中是否得到缓冲；(3)建立一个理论模型，用于预测群落同步和生态系统稳定性，其中纳入了多种同时的全球变化因素和物种相互作用。该项目将把研究人员在生态建模方面的专业知识与Niwot Ridge 50年来的高山群落监测结合起来，包括从几个正在进行的实验中收集和分析群落组成数据。这位研究员和博士生还将进行一项物种萌发实验，并将创建一个新的动力学模型，研究全球变化下物种波动和生态系统稳定性随时间的变化。该模型将与经验结果相结合，为未来的社区动态创建一个预测框架。这个项目将增强我们预测群落同步性和生态系统稳定性将如何随着全球变化的增加而变化的能力，特别是在高山生态系统中。此外，该项目还有望在生态学理论和高山生态学的交界处产生持续的司法利益和增强研究能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Research Infrastructure Improvement RII Track-4 grant will explore how ecological communities respond to increased environmental change, with a focus on alpine ecosystems. Global change factors, such as increases in temperature and changes in precipitation represent severe threats to the stability of ecological communities. This is especially true in alpine ecosystems where the climate is changing at a rapid rate with high variability among years in both temperature and precipitation patterns. The project will examine how these global change factors alter ecological communities and their stability through time. The proposed work will yield transformative and sustained benefits in jurisdictional research capacity within Wyoming, positively transforming the career trajectory of the non-tenured investigator. The work will foster a new collaboration between the investigator, a PhD student, and the Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research Network in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The investigator and collaborators will host workshops at Niwot Ridge for Wyoming and Colorado scientists, spearheading cross-state collaborations. Additionally, the project will produce an educational module on data visualization and biological statistics that will be integrated into a newly developed course required for undergraduate biology majors. The module will be disseminated broadly through an open-source publication. Anthropogenic global change, such as increases in temperature, more variable precipitation regimes, and nitrogen deposition, have previously been demonstrated to have severe ramifications for species persistence, but how these factors may alter ecological communities, including their synchrony patterns and stability remains an open question. The proposed project will examine the effect of multiple, simultaneous global change drivers on alpine community dynamics and ecosystem stability. It will specifically address the following objectives: (1) determine if global change drivers yield increased synchrony of species’ fluctuations and decreased temporal stability of ecosystems; (2) quantify if locations that have historically experienced higher environmental variability are buffered in their responses to current anthropogenic changes; and (3) build a theoretical model for predicting community synchrony and ecosystem stability that incorporates multiple simultaneous global change factors and species interactions. The project will integrate the investigator’s expertise in ecological modeling with 50 years of alpine community monitoring at Niwot Ridge, including collecting and analyzing community composition data from several ongoing experiments. The investigator and PhD student will additionally conduct a species germination experiment and will create a new dynamical model of species fluctuations and ecosystem stability through time under global change. The model will be coupled with empirical results to create a predictive framework for future community dynamics. This project will enhance our ability to predict how community synchrony and ecosystem stability will change with increasing global change, especially in alpine ecosystems. The project is additionally expected to yield sustained jurisdictional benefits and enhanced research capacity at the interface of ecological theory and alpine ecology.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.