Collaborative Research: Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C)

合作研究：南极西部冰盖对 2°C 的敏感性 (SWAIS 2C)

• 批准号: 2035035
• 负责人: Molly Patterson
• 金额: $ 114.68万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Binghamton
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-15 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2035035&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Sensitivity; West; Antarctic

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2). The West Antarctic Ice Sheet presently holds enough ice that it would raise global sea level by five meters if it all melted. Information from satellites demonstrates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice faster than any other region in the Antarctic. However, how much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 degrees C is currently unknown. At the current rate of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, average global temperatures will be 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C above preindustrial levels in 10 and 20 years, respectively. Virtually all pathways to restrict the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees C now require direct carbon removal from the atmosphere. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of this human-induced climate change. Global mean sea level has increased by ~22 cm since 1880 and will continue to rise well beyond the 21st century. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed through international collaboration to better forecast the size and timing of future changes. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C) Project scientists will collect and study geological (rocks), glaciological (ice), and geophysical (Earth physical properties) data and provide new information to guide the development of climate and ice sheet numerical models to better understand and predict how the ice sheet on West Antarctica will contribute to future sea level rise. The project aims to interpret the state of past environmental conditions in West Antarctica (warm open marine seas, cold ice-covered ocean, or polar grounded ice sheet) during recent periods in Earths history when average global temperatures reached or exceeded 2 degrees C, levels anticipated within the next two decades. These types of geological studies will help us understand how much ice melted during past warm periods, what processes are involved, and how fast it will change. Glaciological and geophysical information collected by scientists will help us better understand the modern processes that cause the ice sheet to grow or melt. Modeling studies will use this new information regarding past and present ice sheet behavior to make better predictions of how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt in the future. This project will support a United States scientific team with a range of scientific expertise, with a key goal of broadening the involvement of early career scientists in Antarctic research. Informative and impactful education and outreach materials will be developed and shared with educators to bring polar science into the classroom and provide accurate information related to ice sheets stability, sea level rise, and global climate change to students and the public.Satellite observations show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerated rate, much faster than other Antarctic regions. WAIS is considered highly sensitive to future warming because much of it is grounded 2500 m below sea level and its associated floating ice shelves are exposed to warming ocean waters. Future collapse of marine-based sectors and full melting of the WAIS has the potential to raise global mean sea level by 5 meters. However, Antarctic ice sheet dynamics remain the largest uncertainty in numerical model projections of future sea level rise. Existing datasets lack direct physical evidence of WAISs response to past times when global mean temperatures were 2 degrees C warmer than during pre-industrial time. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C) project is a four-year project developed through international collaboration to integrate geological, glaciological, and geophysical data with ice sheet and climate modeling studies to better project future scenarios of WAIS contribution to sea level rise. This approach will aim to integrate studies of past (using geological records) and present (using glaciology and geophysical records) ice sheet behavior to inform future projections (using models) of WAIS response to climate change. This project will recover two ~200 m-long sediment cores from beneath the WAIS using new drilling technology in strategic locations adjacent to the grounding zone at Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise in the inner Ross Embayment along the Siple Coast. Three SWAIS 2C approaches will determine conditions associated with past WAIS collapses and will sharpen our predictive tools to assess its future stability in our warming world: (1) stratigraphic records will provide new paleoenvironmental information regarding past sensitivities to system boundaries, processes, and rates of change; (2) modern observations will provide details of the variables and complexities associated with processes and rates of change; and (3) numerical model application and development will assess future scenarios to equilibrium states in accelerated time, and test system sensitivities and feedbacks. SWAIS 2C Project results will contribute new information from the southern end (most proximal to the ice grounding zone) of a transect that extends north to recent drill holes in the outer Ross Embayment to connect with distal Southern Ocean records. The SWAIS 2C Project is complementary to the US-UK Thwaites Glacier Project on the other side of West Antarctica, allowing for a broader understanding of WAIS history and more accurate predictions of future change. A major goal of this project is to broaden development of early-career scientists in polar research and work closely with teaching professionals to provide new, impactful, and assessable classroom material to educators, and accurate information related to ice sheets stability, sea level rise, and global climate change to the public.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项全部或部分由《2021年美国救援计划法案》（公法117-2）资助。目前，南极西部冰原的冰量足够大，如果全部融化，将使全球海平面上升5米。来自卫星的信息表明，南极西部冰盖的冰损速度比南极其他任何地区都快。然而，当全球平均气温超过2摄氏度时，南极西部冰盖会融化多少，以及融化的速度有多快，目前还不得而知。按照目前向大气排放二氧化碳的速度，在未来10年和20年内，全球平均气温将分别比工业化前水平高出1.5摄氏度和2.0摄氏度。现在，几乎所有将全球气温上升限制在1.5摄氏度的途径都需要直接从大气中去除碳。海平面上升是人类引起的气候变化在全球范围内最明显的信号之一。自1880年以来，全球平均海平面上升了22厘米，并将在21世纪以后继续上升。考虑到南极洲未来对全球海平面上升的影响将产生深远的国际影响，通过国际合作开发了swis 2C项目，以更好地预测未来变化的规模和时间。南极西部冰盖对2摄氏度的敏感性（SWAIS 2C）项目科学家将收集和研究地质（岩石）、冰川学（冰）和地球物理（地球物理性质）数据，并提供新的信息来指导气候和冰盖数值模型的发展，以更好地了解和预测南极洲西部冰盖将如何促进未来海平面上升。该项目旨在解释地球历史上最近全球平均气温达到或超过2摄氏度（预计在未来20年内达到或超过2摄氏度）期间西南极洲过去的环境状况（温暖的开放海洋、寒冷的冰雪覆盖海洋或极地地面冰盖）。这些类型的地质研究将帮助我们了解在过去的温暖时期有多少冰融化，涉及什么过程，以及它将以多快的速度变化。科学家收集的冰川学和地球物理信息将帮助我们更好地理解导致冰盖生长或融化的现代过程。建模研究将利用这些关于过去和现在冰盖行为的新信息，更好地预测南极西部冰盖未来融化的程度和速度。这个项目将支持一个具有一系列科学专门知识的美国科学小组，其关键目标是扩大早期职业科学家对南极研究的参与。我们将开发信息丰富、影响深远的教育和宣传材料，并与教育工作者分享，将极地科学带入课堂，为学生和公众提供有关冰盖稳定性、海平面上升和全球气候变化的准确信息。卫星观测显示，南极西部冰盖（WAIS）正在加速失去质量，比南极其他地区快得多。WAIS被认为对未来变暖高度敏感，因为它的大部分地面位于海平面以下2500米，其相关的浮冰架暴露在变暖的海水中。未来海洋部门的崩溃和西海冰川的完全融化有可能使全球平均海平面上升5米。然而，在未来海平面上升的数值模式预估中，南极冰盖动力学仍然是最大的不确定性。当全球平均气温比工业化前时期高出2摄氏度时，现有数据集缺乏wiss对过去时期的直接物理证据。南极西部冰盖对2摄氏度的敏感性（SWAIS 2C）项目是一个为期四年的项目，通过国际合作开发，将地质、冰川学和地球物理数据与冰盖和气候建模研究相结合，以更好地预测南极西部冰盖对海平面上升贡献的未来情景。该方法旨在整合过去（使用地质记录）和现在（使用冰川学和地球物理记录）冰盖行为的研究，从而为未来（使用模型）WAIS对气候变化的响应预测提供信息。该项目将利用新的钻井技术，在靠近Kamb冰流和Crary冰起的战略位置，沿着简单海岸，从WAIS下面回收两个~200米长的沉积物岩心。三种WAIS 2C方法将确定与过去WAIS崩塌相关的条件，并将增强我们的预测工具，以评估其在我们变暖的世界中的未来稳定性：(1)地层记录将提供关于过去对系统边界、过程和变化率敏感性的新的古环境信息；(2)现代观测将提供与过程和变化率相关的变量和复杂性的细节；(3)数值模型的应用和开发将在加速时间内评估未来情景的平衡状态，并测试系统的灵敏度和反馈。SWAIS 2C项目的结果将从一个样带的南端（最接近冰接地带）提供新的信息，该样带向北延伸到罗斯海湾外最近的钻孔，与南大洋远端记录相连接。swis 2C项目是对西南极洲另一侧的美英Thwaites冰川项目的补充，可以更广泛地了解WAIS的历史，并更准确地预测未来的变化。该项目的一个主要目标是扩大极地研究领域的早期职业科学家的发展，并与教学专业人员密切合作，为教育工作者提供新的、有影响力的、可评估的课堂材料，并向公众提供有关冰盖稳定性、海平面上升和全球气候变化的准确信息。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。