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CAREER: Dynamic adaptation of water resources systems to navigate uncertain hydrologic and human stressors

职业：水资源系统的动态适应，以应对不确定的水文和人类压力源

基本信息

批准号：
2041826
负责人：
Jonathan Herman
金额：
$ 50.95万
依托单位：
University of California-Davis
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-03-01 至 2026-02-28
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2041826&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CAREER Dynamic adaptation water resources

项目摘要

Water resources infrastructure and management are central to the sustainability of communities and ecosystems. They must adapt to increasing hydrologic variability despite severe uncertainty in future projections. Recent studies have demonstrated the value of adaptive water planning, which involves determining how to navigate a range of possible future conditions as they unfold. However, dynamic adaptation remains a significant challenge in the face of uncertainties. This includes not only the impacts of extreme floods and droughts, which are confounded by natural variability, but also impacts of human behavior such as land use. The overarching goal of this CAREER project is to advance fundamental understanding of the coupled and evolving stressors facing water resources systems, and to leverage this dynamic information to transform the process of adaptive planning under uncertainty. This goal is to be achieved within the context of the northern California water resources system, supported by sustained engagement with state and local water agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

水资源基础设施和管理对于社区和生态系统的可持续性至关重要。尽管未来预测存在严重的不确定性，但它们必须适应日益增加的水文变化。最近的研究表明了适应性水规划的价值，这涉及到确定如何在未来可能出现的一系列情况下进行导航。然而，面对不确定性，动态适应仍然是一个重大挑战。这不仅包括受自然变化影响的极端洪水和干旱的影响，还包括土地使用等人类行为的影响。这个职业生涯项目的总体目标是推进水资源系统面临的耦合和不断变化的压力源的基本理解，并利用这种动态信息来改变不确定性下的适应性规划过程。这一目标将在北方加州水资源系统的背景下实现，并得到州和地方水机构的持续参与的支持。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（3）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Dynamic Adaptation of Water Resources Systems Under Uncertainty by Learning Policy Structure and Indicators

通过学习政策结构和指标来实现不确定性下水资源系统的动态适应

DOI：
10.1029/2021wr030433
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Water Resources Research
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Cohen, Jonathan S.;Herman, Jonathan D.
通讯作者：
Herman, Jonathan D.

Uncertainty Decomposition to Understand the Influence of Water Systems Model Error in Climate Vulnerability Assessments

不确定性分解以了解水系统模型误差对气候脆弱性评估的影响

DOI：
10.1029/2022wr032349
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Water Resources Research
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Steinschneider, Scott;Herman, Jonathan D.;Kucharski, John;Abellera, Marriah;Ruggiero, Peter
通讯作者：
Ruggiero, Peter

Detection Time for Nonstationary Reservoir System Performance Driven by Climate and Land-Use Change

气候和土地利用变化驱动的非平稳水库系统性能检测时间