CAREER: Dynamic adaptation of water resources systems to navigate uncertain hydrologic and human stressors

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Water resources infrastructure and management are central to the sustainability of communities and ecosystems. They must adapt to increasing hydrologic variability despite severe uncertainty in future projections. Recent studies have demonstrated the value of adaptive water planning, which involves determining how to navigate a range of possible future conditions as they unfold. However, dynamic adaptation remains a significant challenge in the face of uncertainties. This includes not only the impacts of extreme floods and droughts, which are confounded by natural variability, but also impacts of human behavior such as land use. The overarching goal of this CAREER project is to advance fundamental understanding of the coupled and evolving stressors facing water resources systems, and to leverage this dynamic information to transform the process of adaptive planning under uncertainty. This goal is to be achieved within the context of the northern California water resources system, supported by sustained engagement with state and local water agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.