OPUS: Understanding How Climate Change Will Alter the Ability of Pathogens to Control Gypsy Moth Populations, and the Consequences for Forest Economics

当他们想到传染病时，大多数人会想到对人类和经济产生巨大负面影响的疾病，如COVID-19或HIV。 很少有人知道，传染病也能控制害虫，在害虫破坏森林之前就杀死它们。 舞毒蛾就是一个典型的例子。 一种真菌疾病可以在一个春天杀死90%以上的舞毒蛾毛虫，从而控制了舞毒蛾的数量。 自1989年真菌病引入以来，舞毒蛾落叶率一直很低，每年减少数百万美元的舞毒蛾攻击成本。 然而，这种真菌需要凉爽潮湿的条件，因此气候变化给美国带来的更热、更干燥的条件可能会导致舞毒蛾的卷土重来。 在这种真菌被引入之前，一种病毒病杀死了许多舞毒蛾，但这种病毒将来是否能控制舞毒蛾还不得而知。 这个项目问，吉普赛人卷土重来的经济成本是什么，病毒卷土重来能降低这些成本吗？ 结果将提交给森林管理人员，供其提供投入和完善，并将用于为管理决策提供信息。此外，一名研究生和一名技术人员将接受人口和经济建模方面的培训。为了回答这些问题，研究人员将结合生态实地实验、传染病建模和经济建模。 他们将使用田间实验来估计疾病模型的关键参数，特别是病毒和真菌之间竞争的严重程度，以及这种竞争如何取决于天气。 然后，研究人员将扩展他们的疾病模型，以描述长期的病毒-真菌竞争，以及随着气候变化导致更热和更干燥的气候，病毒可以在多大程度上取代真菌。 为了了解病毒-真菌竞争的经济后果，研究人员将首先建立参数化回归模型，量化舞毒蛾落叶的经济成本。 然后，他们将把气候变化模型的预测插入到他们的病毒-真菌竞争模型中，以预测气候变化将如何影响舞毒蛾的落叶。 最后一步将是通过将落叶水平的模型预测插入经济模型来量化气候变化对舞毒蛾的成本。 这项工作将提供一个罕见的量化气候变化对物种相互作用的影响，以及这种影响的经济成本。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

When they think of infectious diseases, most people think of diseases like covid-19 or HIV that have big negative effects on people and the economy. Few are aware that infectious diseases also keep pest insects in check, by killing insects before they can destroy forests. The gypsy moth is a classic example. Gypsy moth populations are held in check by a fungus disease that can kill more than 90% of gypsy moth caterpillars in a single spring. Since the fungus disease was introduced in 1989, gypsy moth defoliation has been very low, reducing the costs of gypsy moth attacks by millions of dollars every year. The fungus needs cool, moist conditions, however, and so the hotter, drier conditions that climate change is bringing to the US may lead to a gypsy moth comeback. Before the fungus was introduced, a virus disease killed many gypsy moths, but whether the virus can control gypsy moths in the future is unknown. This project asks, what will be the economic costs of a gypsy comeback, and can a virus comeback reduce these costs? Results will be presented to forest managers for input and refinement, and will be used to inform management decisions. Additionally, a graduate student and a technician will be trained in population and economic modeling. To answer these questions, the researchers will use a combination of ecological field experiments, infectious disease modeling, and economic modeling. They will use field experiments to estimate key parameters of their disease model, notably the severity of competition between the virus and the fungus, and how this competition depends on weather. The researchers will then extend their disease model to describe long-term virus-fungus competition, and the extent to which the virus can replace the fungus as climate change leads to hotter and drier climates. To understand the economic consequences of virus-fungus competition, the researchers will first parameterize regression models that quantify the economic costs of gypsy moth defoliation. They will then insert the predictions of climate change models into their virus-fungus competition models to predict how climate change will affect gypsy moth defoliation. The final step will be to quantify the costs of climate change on gypsy moths by inserting the model predictions of defoliation levels into the economic models. This work will provide a rare quantification of the effects of climate change on a species interaction, and of the economic costs of such effects.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.