Towards a process-based understanding of different eruptive regimes at persistently degassing volcanoes

并非所有的火山爆发都是罕见的。世界上许多火山定期喷发，有时一天多次，有时几天或几周一次。根据火山的标准，频繁活跃的火山的喷发大多相对温和，但它们的爆炸性和持续时间往往变化惊人，这种变化使得很难可靠地评估它们何时何地可能对人类生命或财产构成威胁。这项提议的目的是为了更好地了解频繁活跃的火山在喷发前发生了什么，以及为什么会发生不同类型的喷发。这项研究通过开发数学模型来解决这些问题，该模型可以根据这些火山喷发样本的现有观测数据进行测试。美国国家科学院、工程院和医学院最近将这类模型的发展确定为现代火山学的三大挑战之一，我们的建议旨在解决这一挑战。通过这样做，研究人员将扩大现代火山学的工具箱。为了将我们的研究扩展到K-12课堂，他们将参加现有的高中教师专业发展计划。鉴于这项研究在火山系统的背景下探测力和波，这项工作非常适合整合到高中水平的物理课程中，旨在理解系统模型中的因果关系。该提案还支持在火山学和应用数学之间工作的研究生的教育，并为历史上处于不利地位的学生提供研究机会。该提案的目标是通过改进对各种过程的识别和量化，来巩固持续脱气的火山喷发行为的现有类型学，这些过程可能会引发管道系统顶部几百米的不稳定。研究人员将通过开发火山导管流动的多尺度、多物理模型来实现这一目标，这些模型可以通过晶体尺度数据进行测试。虽然主要关注的是玄武岩火山，如美国的夏威夷火山和意大利的斯特龙博利火山，但这项工作也与持续脱气的火山有关，这些火山含有更多的硅成分，如南极洲的埃里伯斯火山和堪察加半岛的卡里姆斯基火山。我们的建议整合了两种现有的模型方法，(1)专注于理解持续活火山长期稳定性的交换流模型和(2)优先理解短期喷发行为的段塞模型。将这些看似截然不同的观点结合起来，可以为理解喷发行为的可变性提供比单独使用任何一个模型都更全面的基础。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Not all volcanic eruptions are rare. Many volcanoes around the world erupt on a regular basis, sometimes multiple times a day, sometimes every few days or weeks. Most eruptions at frequently active volcanoes are relatively mild by volcanic standards, but they tend to vary surprisingly in explosivity and duration and this variability makes it difficult to reliably assess when and where they might pose a threat to human life or property. The goal of this proposal is to better understand what happens inside frequently active volcanoes prior to eruption and why different types of eruptions can occur. This research approaches these questions by developing mathematical model that can be tested against existing observational data from samples erupted at these volcanoes. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine recently identified the development of these kinds of models as one of the three grand challenges in modern volcanology and our proposals aims to tackle this challenge. By doing so, the researchers will enlarge the toolbox available in modern volcanology. To extend the reach of our research to K-12 classroom, they will participate in an existing professional development program for high-school teachers. Given that the research probes forces and waves in the context of volcanic systems, the work is ideally suited for integration into the physics curriculum at the high-school level, which is aimed at understanding cause and effect in system models. This proposal also supports the education of a graduate student working at the interface between volcanology and applied mathematics and provides research opportunities for historically disadvantaged students.The goal of this proposal is to underpin the existing typology of eruptive behavior at persistently degassing volcanoes through an improved identification and quantification of the various processes that can trigger instability in the top few hundred meters of the plumbing system. The researchers will achieve this goal by developing multi-scale, multi-physics models of volcanic conduit flow that can be tested against crystalline-scale data. While the primary focus is on basaltic volcanoes like Hawaii, U.S., and Stromboli, Italy, volcano, the work is also relevant for persistently degassing volcanoes with more silicic compositions like Mount Erebus, Antarctica, and Karymsky Volcano, Kamchatka. Our proposal integrates two existing model approaches, (1) the exchange flow model focused on understanding the long-term stability of persistently active volcanoes and (2) the slug model that prioritizes understanding short-term eruptive behavior. Combining these seemingly contrasting points of view could provide a more comprehensive basis for understanding the variability in eruptive behavior than either model can in isolation.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.