NSF-BSF: Collaborative Research: Market Conduct in Technology Adoption in the Automobile Industry

摘要反垄断执法研究主要集中在价格和数量串通上，尽管反垄断法包含了更多的串通方式。本项目将探讨汽车制造商串通采用排放控制技术的原因和福利后果。该项目的重点是被指控串通使用柴油排气液（DEF）油箱的汽车制造商，这些油箱太小，无法有效清除空气污染的主要因素氮氧化物（NOx）。该项目将调查汽车制造商勾结的嫌疑是如何掩盖违反氮氧化物排放规定的。该项目将量化涉嫌串通对氮氧化物污染损害、购车者盈余和企业利润的影响。这些影响为适当的反垄断处罚提供了依据，以弥补此类碰撞造成的福利损害。最后，该项目将研究环境和反垄断监管是否以及如何减轻技术勾结造成的低效率。该项目将建立和估计消费者汽车需求和汽车制造商技术选择的结构模型，并模拟反事实政策。该项目利用了一个关于汽车价格、销售和特性的综合新数据集。所采用的结构模型的一个新颖特征是，一个企业违规检测的概率取决于其他企业的行为以及它自己的行为。选择更分散的分布可能会导致监管机构质疑，为什么一些公司需要使用大型DEF储罐，而另一些公司显然需要使用小型储罐。通过在小型油箱上的合作，汽车制造商同时降低了被监管机构发现的可能性，并使他们的汽车对购车者更具吸引力（因为油箱减少了载货空间，这是汽车的一个重要特征）。利用消费者口味和汽车制造商成本的模型和估计，该项目将进行反事实模拟，探讨以下问题：(i)量化加强排放标准执行的好处；（二）与竞争反事实相比，计算技术串通的反竞争损害；（三）找出最有利于技术合谋的供需条件。该项目推进了经济学研究，并对企业勾结、反垄断执法和行业标准具有监管和政策意义。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractAntitrust enforcement research has mostly focused on price and quantity collusion, even though antitrust law encompasses more ways to collude. This project will explore the causes and welfare consequences of automakers colluding on the adoption of emission control technologies. The project focuses on automakers that have been alleged to have colluded on adopting Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) tanks that were too small to effectively clean up nitrogen oxide (NOx), a major contributor to air pollution. The project will investigate how the alleged collusion by automakers concealed violation of NOx emissions regulation. The project will quantify the effects of the alleged collusion on NOx pollution damages, car buyer surplus, and firm profits. These effects inform the proper amount of antitrust penalties to remedy welfare damages of such collisions. Finally, the project will examine whether and how environmental and antitrust regulation can mitigate inefficiencies from technology collusion. The project will build and estimate a structural model of consumer vehicle demand and automaker technology choice, and simulate counterfactual policies. The project utilizes a comprehensive new data set on vehicle prices, sales, and characteristics. A novel feature of the employed structural model is that the probability of non-compliance detection for one firm depends on other firms' behavior as well as its own. A more dispersed distribution in choices may cause a regulator to question why some firms need to use large DEF tanks while others apparently manage with small tanks. By coordinating on small tanks, the automakers simultaneously reduce the probability of being detected by the regulator and make their vehicles more attractive to car buyers (as the tank reduces cargo space, a valuable vehicle feature). With the model and estimates of consumer tastes and automaker costs, the project will conduct counterfactual simulation to explore the following issues: (i) quantify the benefit of strengthening the enforcement of emission standards; (ii) calculate the anti-competitive damage of technology collusion compared to the competitive counterfactual; and (iii) identify the demand and supply conditions most conducive to technology collusion. The project advances the economics research and has regulatory and policy implications on firm collusion, antitrust enforcement, and industry standards.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.