Collaborative Research: Economic Downturns, Global Pandemics and Parliamentary Elections

在什么情况下，选民会撤回或不支持政府？经济和疫情压力因素如何影响民众对政府和政治领导人的支持？该项目促进了对选举规则、选举诚信、对政权受欢迎程度和寿命的看法以及选举替代方案的性质如何塑造政府支持的理解。该项目利用俄罗斯2021年议会选举的调查，包括选举制度比较研究的问题，扩展了专制环境中持续时间最长的选举研究，也是唯一一个涵盖长期退出民主的研究。该项目的数据是权威主义、比较选举行为和政党学者的重要资源，其研究结果也与记者、政策制定者和公众有关。现有的学术研究有充分的理由相信，民众支持率的下降会破坏世界各地的政权。然而，人们对这些进程的确切性质以及导致政权更迭的长期事态发展仍然知之甚少。这项研究使用了在俄罗斯2021年国家杜马选举之前和之后进行的具有全国代表性的小组调查，以提高对两种最重要的政治行为形式和政权民众支持的政治显著指标的认识：投票率和投票选择。该项目的理论贡献集中在选民如何处理有关政府绩效的信息和评估可用的政治选择方面的关键差异，特别关注极化，偏好伪造，这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值进行评估，被认为值得支持和更广泛的影响审查标准。

Under what conditions do voters withdraw or withhold their support from governments and how do economic and pandemic stressors affect popular support for governments and political leaders? This project advances understanding of how electoral rules, electoral integrity, perceptions of regime popularity and longevity, and the nature of electoral alternatives shape government support. Using surveys timed to Russia’s 2021 parliamentary election and including questions from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, this project extends the longest running election study in an autocratic setting and the only covering an extended period of retreat from democracy. The data from this project are an important resource for scholars of authoritarianism, comparative electoral behavior, and political parties, and its findings are also relevant to journalists, policymakers and the public. Existing scholarship gives good reason to believe that declining popular support can undermine regimes around the world. However, the precise nature of these processes and the long-term developments that lead to regime change remain poorly understood. This study uses a nationally representative panel survey conducted before and after Russia’s 2021 State Duma election to advance knowledge on two of the most consequential forms of political behavior and politically salient metrics of a regime’s popular support: turnout and vote choice. The project’s theoretical contribution focuses on key differences in how voters process information about government performance and assess available political alternatives, with special attention to how polarization, preference falsification, and voters’ emotional states affect their interpretation of new information during crises.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.