Collaborative Research: Using Weather Forecasts to Identify Economic Behavior

该奖项资助信息经济学的创新研究。它研究了如何根据天气预报采取行动，使代理人能够改善对天气敏感的结果。该项目的第一部分研究了天气预报准确性的提高如何通过帮助人们避免死亡来造福社会，以及为什么这些改进的好处在不同群体中有所不同。这个项目的第二部分测试了当人们意识到预测变得更加准确时，他们是否会使用不同的预测。这些类型的反应对于评估预测质量的持续变化可能很重要。该项目的第三部分使用常规天气预报来追踪企业经济活动的地理足迹，这是经济的一个基本但迄今为止难以捉摸的特征。更广泛地说，这项研究将进一步推动围绕信息价值和利用的科学状况。它还将为有关信息投资的公共政策提供信息，以改善人类健康和经济繁荣，包括对国内和世界各地的弱势社区的信息投资。研究结果还将有助于确立美国在利用天气预报改善人类福祉方面的全球领先地位。这项研究将使用三个项目来研究无处不在的信息干预——常规天气预报——如何影响经济行为。第一个项目开发了一种理论驱动的方法，用于估计使用死亡率事件和美国国家气象局温度预报提高天气预报准确性的好处。初步证据表明，总体而言，预测是非常有益的，但平均而言，对不同群体的影响是不同的。第一个项目旨在了解这种差异的根源。第二个项目测试了最近许多信息研究的一个关键假设：代理人对信息的反应并不依赖于他们对准实验方法所提供的信息的持续准确性的信念。第三个项目利用天气预报数据的粒度特性来确定企业层面经济活动的位置。这项研究有助于对信息价值的理论和实证理解，包括对公共信息干预的准确性和效用的持续提高。它还将有助于理解预期行为如何减轻困扰社会的代价高昂的极端天气。研究结果还将为有关信息投资的公共政策提供参考，这些信息可以改善国内和世界各地的人类健康和经济繁荣。研究结果还将有助于确立美国在利用天气预报改善人类福祉方面的全球领先地位。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award funds an innovative research on information economics. It examines how acting on weather forecasts enables agents to improve outcomes that are sensitive to weather. The first part of this project examines how improvements in weather forecast accuracy benefit society by helping people avoid mortality and why the benefits from these improvements differ across groups. The second part of this project tests whether people use forecasts differently when they are aware that forecasts have become more accurate. These types of reactions could be important for valuing persistent changes in forecast quality. The third part of this project uses routine weather forecasts to trace out the geographical footprints of firms’ economic activities, a fundamental but heretofore elusive feature of the economy. More generally, this research will further the state of science surrounding the value and utilization of information. It will also inform public policies on investment in information that can improve human health and economic prosperity, including to disadvantaged communities, domestically and across the world. The results will also help to establish the US as a global leader in the use of weather forecast to improve human wellbeing. This research will use three projects to study how ubiquitous information interventions—routine weather forecasts—impact economic behavior. The first project develops a theory-driven method for estimating the benefits of improvements in weather forecast accuracy using mortality events and National Weather Service temperature forecasts in the United States. Preliminary evidence shows that forecasts are greatly beneficial overall, but on average, has differential effects across different groups. The first project seeks to understand the sources of this disparity. The second project tests a crucial assumption underlying many recent information studies: that agents’ responses to messages do not depend on their beliefs about the persistent accuracy of information with quasi-experimental methods. The third project takes advantage of the granular nature of weather forecast data to identify the location of firm-level economic activity. This research contributes to the theoretical and empirical understanding of the value of information, including for persistent increases in accuracy and the utility of public information interventions. It will also contribute to understanding how anticipatory behavior may mitigate costly weather extremes that plague society. The results will also inform public policies on investment in information that can improve human health and economic prosperity, domestically and across the world. The results will also help to establish the US as a global leader in the use of weather forecast to improve human wellbeing.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.