Collaborative Research: Economic Downturns, Global Pandemics and Parliamentary Elections

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Under what conditions do voters withdraw or withhold their support from governments and how do economic and pandemic stressors affect popular support for governments and political leaders? This project advances understanding of how electoral rules, electoral integrity, perceptions of regime popularity and longevity, and the nature of electoral alternatives shape government support. Using surveys timed to Russia’s 2021 parliamentary election and including questions from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, this project extends the longest running election study in an autocratic setting and the only covering an extended period of retreat from democracy. The data from this project are an important resource for scholars of authoritarianism, comparative electoral behavior, and political parties, and its findings are also relevant to journalists, policymakers and the public. Existing scholarship gives good reason to believe that declining popular support can undermine regimes around the world. However, the precise nature of these processes and the long-term developments that lead to regime change remain poorly understood. This study uses a nationally representative panel survey conducted before and after Russia’s 2021 State Duma election to advance knowledge on two of the most consequential forms of political behavior and politically salient metrics of a regime’s popular support: turnout and vote choice. The project’s theoretical contribution focuses on key differences in how voters process information about government performance and assess available political alternatives, with special attention to how polarization, preference falsification, and voters’ emotional states affect their interpretation of new information during crises.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.