Collaborative Research: Foreign Capital Liberalization, Structural Change, and Economic Empowerment of Vulnerable Groups

许多国家推动增加外国资本自由化，以此作为经济增长和发展的途径。然而，人们对这些政策的社会后果知之甚少。这项研究项目将研究这些政策变化引起的外国直接投资(FDI)的社会政治和分配影响。利用几个行业集团对外资准入的交错自由化，这项研究将试图回答以下问题：(1)制造业和/或服务业的外资自由化是否加速了经济结构的改变？(2)外资自由化政策对社会、经济、卫生、政治和分配的影响是什么，特别是对妇女、种族和其他少数民族等弱势群体？该研究项目将建立一个在地方行政一级分列的大型数据集，以研究这些问题。这一研究项目的结果将指导应对外国直接投资可能产生的经济影响的政策。它还将为减少外国直接投资可能产生的负面社会影响和分配影响的政策提供指导。该项目利用外资在不同时期流向不同细分行业的交错自由化，来衡量外资自由化的因果、平均和分布影响。该项目分为两个部分：第一部分测量了职业转换、性别态度、人力资本和生育率的影响。第二部分将衡量民粹主义兴起对社会结果的影响，如犯罪、政治态度和宗教暴力。外资自由化对产业的待遇是通过一个地区改革前后的产业结构来衡量的。然后，分析将使用当地劳动力市场差异(diff-in-diff)策略来比较改革前和改革后受影响地区和非受影响地区的结果变化。该项目将建立将在地区一级统一的小组数据集，以衡量政策变化的分布影响。该项目将提供关于外资自由化对结构变化的影响以及对女性劳动力参与率、生育率和教育等广泛社会影响的首批因果证据之一。该项目的结果将为减少外国直接投资可能产生的负面社会后果和分配影响的政策提供指导。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Many countries have promoted increased foreign capital liberalization as a path to economic growth and development. However, little is known about the social consequences of these policies. This research project will study the socio-political and distributional effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) induced by these policy changes. Using the staggered liberalization of access to foreign capital across several industry groups, the research will attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Does foreign capital liberalization in the manufacturing and/or service sector accelerate the process of changing the structure of economies? (2) What are the social, economic, health, and political, and distributional consequences of foreign capital liberalization policies, especially for vulnerable groups, such as women, racial and other minorities? The research project will build a large data set disaggregated at local administration level to study these issues. The results of this research project will guide policies to deal with the possible economic effects of foreign direct investment. It will also provide guidance on policies to decrease the possible negative social consequences and distributional effects of foreign direct investments. This project exploits the staggered liberalization of foreign capital flows to different disaggregated industries at different times to measure the causal average and distributional effects of foreign capital liberalization. This project has two parts: The first part measures the effects on occupational switching, gender attitudes, human capital, and fertility. The second part will measure the effects on social outcomes related to the rise of populism, such as crime, political attitudes, and religious violence. Treatment of industry by foreign capital liberalization is measured by the pre- and post-reform mix of industries in a district. The analysis will then use a local labor market difference-in-differences (diff-in-diff) strategy to compares outcome change in affected and non affected districts from the pre- to post-reform period. The project will build panel datasets that will be harmonized at the district-level to measure the distribution effects of policy changes. This project will provide one of the first causal evidence on the effects of foreign capital liberalization on structural change as well as on a broad range social effects, such as female labor force participation, fertility, and education. The results of this project will provide guidance on policies to decrease the possible negative social consequences and distributional effects of foreign direct investments.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.