Emergent Advocacy Coalitions and SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Hesitancy: The influence of beliefs and narratives on individual decision-making

2021年COVID-19疫苗接种运动可能是近代史上最重要的公共卫生举措之一。它在抑制冠状病毒大流行方面的成功取决于它能够说服大部分人口迅速接种疫苗。不幸的是，个人的行为往往与他们的最佳利益不一致，无论是在投票行为、财务决策方面，还是在这种情况下，疫苗接种决策方面。大多数说服人们做出更好决策的沟通策略包括以下一种或多种：提供支持循证决策的信息；聘请有影响力的代言人；利用更广泛的正式和非正式媒体渠道；引入基于恐惧的信息以促进行动；提高人们做出基于证据的决策的能力。这种沟通策略很少考虑潜在信念系统的力量和影响。在国家宣传团体采用反叙述来左右公众舆论或行动的情况下，这可能特别相关。COVID - 19疫苗接种运动为研究信仰体系如何影响采取或拒绝保护行为提供了一个机会。本研究侧重于信念和态度形成的三个方面：(1)支持支持或反对疫苗立场的新成立的倡导团体和联盟的演变，(2)这些倡导团体为推进其使命而部署的叙事和故事，以及(3)这些叙事、故事和信仰说服个人接受、延迟或拒绝COVID疫苗的力量。本研究确定了在精英阶层运作的独特倡导联盟，以影响当地利益相关者的信念和政策，并根据公共文件的内容分析制定了政策和核心信念矩阵。该团队还确定并描述了来自这些倡导联盟的政策叙述。随后，该研究在两个时间点对3000名美国居民进行了抽样调查，以捕捉疫苗开发时间表中两个时刻的公众舆论和决策。该团队测试了政策叙述对个人的影响，并分析了一致的政策信念与研究参与者的疫苗行为的贡献。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The 2021 COVID-19 vaccine campaign is likely to be among the most important public health initiatives in recent history. Its success in dampening the coronavirus pandemic rests on its ability to persuade large portions of the population to be vaccinated quickly. Unfortunately, individuals often act in ways inconsistent with their best interests, whether in terms of voting behaviors, financial decision making, or in this case, vaccination decisions. Most communication strategies to persuade people to make better decisions involve one or more of the following: providing information that supports evidence-based decision making; employing influential spokespeople; utilizing an expanded range of formal and informal media channels; introducing fear-based messaging to promote action; and enhancing people’s capacity to make evidence-based decisions. Rarely do such communication strategies consider the strength and influence of underlying belief systems. This may be particularly relevant in those situations in which national advocacy groups have introduced counter-narratives to sway public opinion or actions. The COVID vaccination campaign offers an opportunity for examining how belief systems influence the adoption or rejection of a protective behavior. This study focuses on three aspects of belief and attitude formation: (1) the evolution of newly-formed advocacy groups and coalitions endorsing pro- or anti-vaccine stances, (2) the deployment of narratives and stories by these advocacy groups to advance their mission, and (3) the power of these narratives, stories, and beliefs to persuade individuals to accept, delay, or reject a COVID vaccine. This research identifies distinctive advocacy coalitions operating at elite levels to influence local stakeholder beliefs and policies, and develops a matrix of policy and core beliefs based on content analyses of public documents. The team also identifies and characterizes the policy narratives emanating from these advocacy coalitions. Subsequently, the research samples and surveys 3,000 US residents at two points in time to capture public opinion and decision making at two moments in the vaccine development timeline. The team tests the influence of policy narratives among individuals, and analyzes the contribution of aligned policy beliefs with the vaccine behaviors of the study participants.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.