Emergent Advocacy Coalitions and SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Hesitancy: The influence of beliefs and narratives on individual decision-making

2021年新冠肺炎疫苗接种活动可能是近代史上最重要的公共卫生倡议之一。它在遏制冠状病毒大流行方面的成功取决于它能否说服大部分人口迅速接种疫苗。不幸的是，个人的行为往往与他们的最大利益不一致，无论是在投票行为、财务决策方面，还是在这种情况下，疫苗接种决定。大多数说服人们做出更好决策的沟通策略涉及以下一项或多项：提供支持循证决策的信息；雇用有影响力的发言人；利用更广泛的正式和非正式媒体渠道；引入基于恐惧的信息以促进行动；以及增强人们做出基于证据的决策的能力。这样的沟通策略很少考虑潜在信仰系统的力量和影响。这在国家倡导团体采用反叙事以影响公众舆论或行动的情况下可能特别相关。COVID疫苗接种运动提供了一个机会，可以检查信仰系统如何影响保护性行为的采用或拒绝。这项研究集中在信念和态度形成的三个方面：(1)支持支持或反对疫苗立场的新成立的倡导团体和联盟的演变，(2)这些倡导团体利用叙事和故事来推进他们的使命，以及(3)这些叙事、故事和信仰的力量，以说服个人接受、推迟或拒绝COVID疫苗。这项研究确定了在精英层面运作的独特的倡导联盟，以影响当地利益攸关方的信念和政策，并根据对公共文件的内容分析，制定了政策和核心信念的矩阵。该小组还确定并描述了这些倡导联盟所产生的政策叙述。随后，这项研究在两个时间点对3000名美国居民进行了抽样和调查，以捕捉疫苗开发时间表中两个时刻的民意和决策。该团队测试了政策叙述在个人中的影响，并分析了与研究参与者的疫苗行为相一致的政策信念的贡献。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The 2021 COVID-19 vaccine campaign is likely to be among the most important public health initiatives in recent history. Its success in dampening the coronavirus pandemic rests on its ability to persuade large portions of the population to be vaccinated quickly. Unfortunately, individuals often act in ways inconsistent with their best interests, whether in terms of voting behaviors, financial decision making, or in this case, vaccination decisions. Most communication strategies to persuade people to make better decisions involve one or more of the following: providing information that supports evidence-based decision making; employing influential spokespeople; utilizing an expanded range of formal and informal media channels; introducing fear-based messaging to promote action; and enhancing people’s capacity to make evidence-based decisions. Rarely do such communication strategies consider the strength and influence of underlying belief systems. This may be particularly relevant in those situations in which national advocacy groups have introduced counter-narratives to sway public opinion or actions. The COVID vaccination campaign offers an opportunity for examining how belief systems influence the adoption or rejection of a protective behavior. This study focuses on three aspects of belief and attitude formation: (1) the evolution of newly-formed advocacy groups and coalitions endorsing pro- or anti-vaccine stances, (2) the deployment of narratives and stories by these advocacy groups to advance their mission, and (3) the power of these narratives, stories, and beliefs to persuade individuals to accept, delay, or reject a COVID vaccine. This research identifies distinctive advocacy coalitions operating at elite levels to influence local stakeholder beliefs and policies, and develops a matrix of policy and core beliefs based on content analyses of public documents. The team also identifies and characterizes the policy narratives emanating from these advocacy coalitions. Subsequently, the research samples and surveys 3,000 US residents at two points in time to capture public opinion and decision making at two moments in the vaccine development timeline. The team tests the influence of policy narratives among individuals, and analyzes the contribution of aligned policy beliefs with the vaccine behaviors of the study participants.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.