Emergent Advocacy Coalitions and SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Hesitancy: The influence of beliefs and narratives on individual decision-making

2021年COVID-19疫苗接种活动可能是近年来最重要的公共卫生举措之一。它在遏制冠状病毒大流行方面的成功取决于它说服大部分人口迅速接种疫苗的能力。 不幸的是，个人的行为往往与他们的最大利益不一致，无论是在投票行为，财务决策方面，还是在这种情况下，疫苗接种决定。说服人们作出更好决定的大多数沟通战略涉及以下一项或多项：提供支持循证决策的信息;聘用有影响力的发言人;利用范围更广的正式和非正式媒体渠道;引入基于恐惧的信息以促进行动;以及提高人们作出循证决策的能力。这种沟通策略很少考虑潜在信仰体系的力量和影响。在国家倡导团体提出相反言论以左右公众舆论或行动的情况下，这一点可能特别重要。新冠疫苗接种运动提供了一个机会，可以研究信仰体系如何影响采取或拒绝保护性行为。本研究关注信念和态度形成的三个方面：（1）支持或反对疫苗立场的新成立倡导团体和联盟的演变，（2）这些倡导团体为推进其使命而部署的叙事和故事，以及（3）这些叙事，故事和信念说服个人接受，延迟或拒绝COVID疫苗的力量。这项研究确定了独特的宣传联盟在精英阶层影响当地利益相关者的信念和政策，并制定了一个矩阵的政策和核心信念的基础上的内容分析的公共文件。该小组还查明和描述这些宣传联盟提出的政策说明。随后，该研究在两个时间点对3,000名美国居民进行了抽样调查，以捕捉疫苗开发时间轴上两个时刻的公众舆论和决策。该团队测试政策叙述在个人中的影响，并分析与研究参与者的疫苗行为一致的政策信念的贡献。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The 2021 COVID-19 vaccine campaign is likely to be among the most important public health initiatives in recent history. Its success in dampening the coronavirus pandemic rests on its ability to persuade large portions of the population to be vaccinated quickly. Unfortunately, individuals often act in ways inconsistent with their best interests, whether in terms of voting behaviors, financial decision making, or in this case, vaccination decisions. Most communication strategies to persuade people to make better decisions involve one or more of the following: providing information that supports evidence-based decision making; employing influential spokespeople; utilizing an expanded range of formal and informal media channels; introducing fear-based messaging to promote action; and enhancing people’s capacity to make evidence-based decisions. Rarely do such communication strategies consider the strength and influence of underlying belief systems. This may be particularly relevant in those situations in which national advocacy groups have introduced counter-narratives to sway public opinion or actions. The COVID vaccination campaign offers an opportunity for examining how belief systems influence the adoption or rejection of a protective behavior. This study focuses on three aspects of belief and attitude formation: (1) the evolution of newly-formed advocacy groups and coalitions endorsing pro- or anti-vaccine stances, (2) the deployment of narratives and stories by these advocacy groups to advance their mission, and (3) the power of these narratives, stories, and beliefs to persuade individuals to accept, delay, or reject a COVID vaccine. This research identifies distinctive advocacy coalitions operating at elite levels to influence local stakeholder beliefs and policies, and develops a matrix of policy and core beliefs based on content analyses of public documents. The team also identifies and characterizes the policy narratives emanating from these advocacy coalitions. Subsequently, the research samples and surveys 3,000 US residents at two points in time to capture public opinion and decision making at two moments in the vaccine development timeline. The team tests the influence of policy narratives among individuals, and analyzes the contribution of aligned policy beliefs with the vaccine behaviors of the study participants.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.