Modeling Intergovernmental Fiscal Impacts of Coastal Hazards

模拟沿海灾害的政府间财政影响

• 批准号: 2053637
• 负责人: Clinton Andrews
• 金额: $ 40万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-15 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2053637&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modeling; Intergovernmental; Fiscal; Impacts; Coastal

This Disaster Resilience Research Grant (DRRG) project contributes to the advancement of national health, prosperity and welfare by creating new knowledge on how coastal storm and flood events affect municipal finances. Disasters may cause fiscal distress for local governments when revenues shrink and expenses grow, thereby affecting their ability to provide adequate local public services such as policing, public works, and education. The extent of local distress depends in part on what other actors do, including local property owners and higher levels of government. This project collects twenty years of New Jersey data from property tax records, municipal budgets, and state and federal budgets to create a fiscal impact model; uses a phone survey of coastal residents and focus groups with public officials to create a behavioral model; and joins them to support the deliberations of a stakeholder group based in coastal New Jersey. This group will explore ways to incentivize more effective management of coastal hazards and increase transparency about how coastal storm and flood events affect municipalities. Better risk management in coastal areas depends in part on re-aligning the incentives experienced by households and local jurisdictions by changing the rules of the intergovernmental public finance. This project extends the method of Fiscal Impact Analysis, a widely used method to assess the local fiscal impacts of land use development proposals, to the situation where coastal hazards cause local fiscal impacts. It also develops a novel agent-based model of intergovernmental fiscal relations to allow strategic exploration of alternative incentive structures. The project integrates these two tools into a simulation modeling system that can support stakeholder deliberations about more protective coastal risk policy. More broadly, the project will help local decision makers to mitigate fiscal stresses from adaptation decisions outside the municipal sphere of influence. From an equity perspective, it serves fiscally distressed coastal communities that often have vulnerable residents residing in the flood plain.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这个抗灾能力研究补助金（DRRG）项目通过创造关于沿海风暴和洪水事件如何影响市政财政的新知识，有助于促进国家健康，繁荣和福利。当收入减少而支出增加时，灾害可能会给地方政府造成财政困难，从而影响它们提供足够的地方公共服务的能力，如治安、公共工程和教育。当地的困境程度部分取决于其他行为者的行为，包括当地业主和更高级别的政府。该项目收集了新泽西20年的数据，从财产税记录，市政预算，州和联邦预算，以创建一个财政影响模型;使用沿海居民和焦点小组与政府官员的电话调查，以创建一个行为模型;并加入他们，以支持利益相关者小组的审议总部设在沿海新泽西。该小组将探讨如何激励更有效地管理沿海灾害，并提高沿海风暴和洪水事件如何影响市政当局的透明度。 沿海地区更好的风险管理部分取决于通过改变政府间公共财政规则，重新调整家庭和地方管辖区的激励措施。本项目将广泛用于评估土地利用开发提案对地方财政影响的财政影响分析方法扩展到沿海灾害对地方财政影响的情况。它还开发了一个新的代理人为基础的政府间财政关系的模式，使战略探索替代激励结构。该项目将这两个工具集成到一个模拟建模系统中，该系统可以支持利益相关者审议更具保护性的沿海风险政策。更广泛地说，该项目将帮助地方决策者减轻市政影响范围以外的适应决定所带来的财政压力。从公平的角度来看，它服务于受灾严重的沿海社区，这些社区通常有脆弱的居民居住在洪泛区。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。