Development of a Copula-Based Weather Generator for Assessment of Climate Impact on the Hydrodynamic and Ecologic State of Highly Sensitive Aquatic Systems Using the Example of Lake Constance

开发基于 Copula 的天气生成器，以博登湖为例评估气候对高度敏感水生系统的水动力和生态状态的影响

• 批准号: 246786761
• 负责人: Professor Dr.-Ing. András Bárdossy
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Limnologisches Institut
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-31 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/246786761?language=en
• 关键词: Development; Copula; Based; Weather; Generator

The response of lake systems to changed climatic conditions has importantpractical implications and is a question of ongoing research. When providing input data for climate impact modelling on lakes, two general uncertainties set the background on which to work on:(1) Lake system reactions are non-linear and not fully understood. (2) Climate models (even regional ones) do not offer the discretization needed and come with great inherent uncertainties.To handle both uncertainties in a reasonable manner, we want to develop a method that (1) allows lake modellers to gain deeper process understanding by defining changed weather themselves and (2) provides stochastically downscaled climate projections. We will develop a novel approach - combining occurrence probability and intensity - to deal with the difficulty of rain simulation and extend an existing singlesite weather generator to multisite simulation. Copulas are planned to be used where conventional measures of dependency are not suitable. Hydrodynamic and ecological modelling will be done on the example of Lake Constance, a lake that serves as a drinking water resource for 4.5 M people.

湖泊系统对气候条件变化的反应具有重要的实际意义，是一个正在进行的研究问题。在为湖泊气候影响建模提供输入数据时，两个一般的不确定性为研究奠定了基础：（1）湖泊系统的反应是非线性的，尚未完全了解。(2)气候模式（即使是区域气候模式）不提供所需的离散化，并且具有很大的固有不确定性。为了以合理的方式处理这两种不确定性，我们希望开发一种方法，（1）允许湖泊模拟者通过定义变化的天气本身来获得更深入的过程理解，（2）提供随机缩减的气候预测。我们将开发一种新的方法-结合发生概率和强度-来处理降雨模拟的困难，并将现有的单点天气发生器扩展到多点模拟。Copula计划用于传统依赖性度量不适合的地方。将以康斯坦茨湖为例进行水动力学和生态建模，该湖是450万人的饮用水资源。