Development of a Copula-Based Weather Generator for Assessment of Climate Impact on the Hydrodynamic and Ecologic State of Highly Sensitive Aquatic Systems Using the Example of Lake Constance

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The response of lake systems to changed climatic conditions has importantpractical implications and is a question of ongoing research. When providing input data for climate impact modelling on lakes, two general uncertainties set the background on which to work on:(1) Lake system reactions are non-linear and not fully understood. (2) Climate models (even regional ones) do not offer the discretization needed and come with great inherent uncertainties.To handle both uncertainties in a reasonable manner, we want to develop a method that (1) allows lake modellers to gain deeper process understanding by defining changed weather themselves and (2) provides stochastically downscaled climate projections. We will develop a novel approach - combining occurrence probability and intensity - to deal with the difficulty of rain simulation and extend an existing singlesite weather generator to multisite simulation. Copulas are planned to be used where conventional measures of dependency are not suitable. Hydrodynamic and ecological modelling will be done on the example of Lake Constance, a lake that serves as a drinking water resource for 4.5 M people.