Collaborative Research: LTREB: Predicting the success of montane species in an era of climatic upheaval

地球上的生命历史有许多大规模灭绝的时期，许多物种不再存在。这些时期通常通过使用化石来研究。尽管化石已经揭示了很多关于灭绝的信息，但它们无法解决为什么有些物种灭绝而另一些物种似乎未受影响的基本谜团。 人类现在正在目睹一场大规模灭绝事件，这为生态学家提供了一个机会，让他们能够在真实的时间里研究物种对气候变化和其他压力源的反应是如何不同的。有些可能在我们有生之年灭绝，有些则不会。该项目建立在北美最长的昆虫种群研究的基础上，通过在北方加州的内华达州山脉的五个地点继续收集数据。 该项目包括150多种蝴蝶，将探索蝴蝶和毛毛虫对栖息地的利用，以更好地了解气候对昆虫种群的影响。 特别令人感兴趣的是极端干旱的作用，这是影响美国西部越来越频繁。 该项目的结果将为我们了解正在进行的昆虫和传粉者下降提供信息。科学家们将通过一个新颖的预测网站和当地学校团体参与活动，包括创建常见物种的大型生物模型，吸引公众参与。该项目延续了近五十年的动态系统观察，该系统在我们理解人类世昆虫方面发挥了重要作用。 以前对这一长期数据的研究表明，气候变化（特别是变暖和干旱趋势）的影响可能与通过农药积累和其他过程造成的生境丧失和退化的影响一样重要。 在这个项目中，研究人员调查了气候剧变期间山地环境作为避难所的作用。 除了继续收集核心数据（每两周一次的存在/不存在调查）外，还将收集关于营养网络和昆虫种群对通过植物资源（特别是花蜜来源）介导的气候条件变化的反应的新信息。 多种类型的观测数据将被纳入一个统计建模框架，该框架强调在气候不确定性的情况下进行预测，并将通过在实地季节内和季节之间更新的实时预测每年进行验证。 该项目的成果将包括利用异质数据源进行预测的跨学科工具，以及动物与地形复杂性相互作用的生态学理论的进步，同时对新的气候条件作出反应。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The history of life on Earth has many periods of mass extinction, when many species cease to exist. These periods are usually studied through use of fossils. Although fossils have revealed a lot about extinction, they’ve been unable to solve the basic riddle of why some species go extinct and others seem unaffected. Humans are now witnessing a mass extinction event, which provides ecologists an opportunity to study in real time how species differ in their responses to climate change and other stressors. Some may go extinct within our lifetimes; others won’t. This project builds on one of North America's longest-running studies of insect populations by continuing data collection at five sites in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Encompassing more than 150 species of butterflies, the project will explore habitat use by both butterflies and caterpillars to better understand climate impacts on insect populations. Of particular interest is the role of extreme droughts, which are affecting the western United States with increasing frequency. Results from the project will inform our understanding of ongoing insect and pollinator declines. Scientists will engage the public through a novel forecasting website and by involvement of local school groups in activities, including the creation of larger-than-life biological models of common species.This project extends nearly five decades of observations in a dynamic system that has played an important role in our understanding of insects in the Anthropocene. Previous work with this long-term data has suggested that the impacts of climate change (particularly warming and drying trends) might be as important as the effects of habitat loss and degradation through pesticide accumulation and other processes. In this project, researchers investigate the role of montane environments as refugia during periods of climatic upheaval. In addition to continuing core data collection (biweekly presence/absence surveys), new information will be gathered on trophic networks and the response of insect populations to shifting climatic conditions mediated through plant resources (nectar sources in particular). Multiple types of observational data will be integrated into a statistical modeling framework that emphasizes forecasting with climatic uncertainty, and which will be validated on an annual basis through real-time forecasts updated within and among field seasons. Outcomes from this project will include inter-disciplinary tools for prediction with heterogeneous data sources, as well as advances on ecological theories of animals interacting with topographic complexity while responding to novel climatic conditions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.