Collaborative Research: LTREB: Predicting the success of montane species in an era of climatic upheaval

地球上的生命历史有许多大灭绝时期，许多物种在此期间不复存在。这些时期通常通过使用化石来研究。尽管化石揭示了很多关于灭绝的事情，但它们无法解决为什么一些物种灭绝而另一些物种似乎未受影响的基本谜题。人类正在目睹一场大规模灭绝事件，这为生态学家提供了一个实时研究物种对气候变化和其他压力源的反应有何不同的机会。有些可能会在我们的有生之年灭绝；其他人不会。该项目建立在北美最长的昆虫种群研究之一的基础上，通过在北加州内华达山脉的五个地点持续收集数据。该项目涵盖了150多种蝴蝶，将探索蝴蝶和毛毛虫对栖息地的利用，以更好地了解气候对昆虫种群的影响。特别令人感兴趣的是极端干旱的作用，这种干旱正越来越频繁地影响美国西部。该项目的结果将使我们了解正在进行的昆虫和传粉媒介的减少。科学家们将通过一个新颖的预测网站和当地学校团体参与的活动来吸引公众，这些活动包括为常见物种创建比生命更大的生物模型。该项目扩展了近五十年来对一个动态系统的观察，该系统在我们对人类世昆虫的理解中发挥了重要作用。先前对这些长期数据的研究表明，气候变化的影响（特别是变暖和干燥的趋势）可能与栖息地丧失和农药积累和其他过程造成的退化的影响同样重要。在这个项目中，研究人员调查了山区环境在气候剧变时期作为避难所的作用。除了继续收集核心数据（每两周一次的存在/缺失调查）外，还将收集有关营养网络和昆虫种群对植物资源（特别是花蜜来源）介导的气候条件变化的反应的新信息。多种类型的观测数据将被整合到一个统计建模框架中，该框架强调预测气候的不确定性，并将通过每年在野外季节内和季节之间更新的实时预测来验证。该项目的成果将包括利用异构数据源进行预测的跨学科工具，以及在应对新气候条件的同时，动物与地形复杂性相互作用的生态理论方面的进展。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The history of life on Earth has many periods of mass extinction, when many species cease to exist. These periods are usually studied through use of fossils. Although fossils have revealed a lot about extinction, they’ve been unable to solve the basic riddle of why some species go extinct and others seem unaffected. Humans are now witnessing a mass extinction event, which provides ecologists an opportunity to study in real time how species differ in their responses to climate change and other stressors. Some may go extinct within our lifetimes; others won’t. This project builds on one of North America's longest-running studies of insect populations by continuing data collection at five sites in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Encompassing more than 150 species of butterflies, the project will explore habitat use by both butterflies and caterpillars to better understand climate impacts on insect populations. Of particular interest is the role of extreme droughts, which are affecting the western United States with increasing frequency. Results from the project will inform our understanding of ongoing insect and pollinator declines. Scientists will engage the public through a novel forecasting website and by involvement of local school groups in activities, including the creation of larger-than-life biological models of common species.This project extends nearly five decades of observations in a dynamic system that has played an important role in our understanding of insects in the Anthropocene. Previous work with this long-term data has suggested that the impacts of climate change (particularly warming and drying trends) might be as important as the effects of habitat loss and degradation through pesticide accumulation and other processes. In this project, researchers investigate the role of montane environments as refugia during periods of climatic upheaval. In addition to continuing core data collection (biweekly presence/absence surveys), new information will be gathered on trophic networks and the response of insect populations to shifting climatic conditions mediated through plant resources (nectar sources in particular). Multiple types of observational data will be integrated into a statistical modeling framework that emphasizes forecasting with climatic uncertainty, and which will be validated on an annual basis through real-time forecasts updated within and among field seasons. Outcomes from this project will include inter-disciplinary tools for prediction with heterogeneous data sources, as well as advances on ecological theories of animals interacting with topographic complexity while responding to novel climatic conditions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.