Collaborative Research: LTREB: Predicting the success of montane species in an era of climatic upheaval

地球上的生命历史上有过许多大规模灭绝的时期，许多物种都不复存在了。这些时期通常是通过化石来研究的。尽管化石揭示了许多关于物种灭绝的信息，但他们一直无法解开一些物种灭绝而另一些物种似乎没有受到影响的基本谜题。人类现在正在目睹一场大规模灭绝事件，这为生态学家提供了一个实时研究物种如何对气候变化和其他压力做出反应的机会。有些昆虫可能会在我们有生之年灭绝；有些不会。这个项目建立在北美持续时间最长的昆虫种群研究之一的基础上，通过在北加州内华达山脉的五个地点继续收集数据。该项目涵盖了150多种蝴蝶，将探索蝴蝶和毛虫对栖息地的利用，以更好地了解气候对昆虫种群的影响。特别令人感兴趣的是极端干旱的作用，它正在以越来越频繁的方式影响美国西部。该项目的结果将使我们了解昆虫和传粉者正在减少的情况。科学家们将通过一个新的预测网站和当地学校团体的参与来吸引公众参与活动，包括创建常见物种的更大生命的生物模型。这个项目延续了近50年的观察，在一个动态系统中发挥了重要作用，我们对人类世昆虫的理解。以前对这一长期数据所做的工作表明，气候变化的影响(特别是变暖和干燥趋势)可能与通过农药积累和其他过程造成的栖息地丧失和退化的影响一样重要。在这个项目中，研究人员调查了山地环境在气候剧变期间作为避难所的作用。除了继续收集核心数据(每两周进行一次有无调查)外，还将收集关于营养网络和昆虫种群通过植物资源(特别是花蜜来源)对气候条件变化的反应的新信息。多种类型的观测数据将被纳入一个统计建模框架，该框架强调气候不确定性的预测，并将通过实地季节内和田间季节之间更新的实时预报每年进行验证。该项目的成果将包括利用不同数据源进行预测的跨学科工具，以及动物在响应新的气候条件时与地形复杂性相互作用的生态学理论的进展。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The history of life on Earth has many periods of mass extinction, when many species cease to exist. These periods are usually studied through use of fossils. Although fossils have revealed a lot about extinction, they’ve been unable to solve the basic riddle of why some species go extinct and others seem unaffected. Humans are now witnessing a mass extinction event, which provides ecologists an opportunity to study in real time how species differ in their responses to climate change and other stressors. Some may go extinct within our lifetimes; others won’t. This project builds on one of North America's longest-running studies of insect populations by continuing data collection at five sites in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Encompassing more than 150 species of butterflies, the project will explore habitat use by both butterflies and caterpillars to better understand climate impacts on insect populations. Of particular interest is the role of extreme droughts, which are affecting the western United States with increasing frequency. Results from the project will inform our understanding of ongoing insect and pollinator declines. Scientists will engage the public through a novel forecasting website and by involvement of local school groups in activities, including the creation of larger-than-life biological models of common species.This project extends nearly five decades of observations in a dynamic system that has played an important role in our understanding of insects in the Anthropocene. Previous work with this long-term data has suggested that the impacts of climate change (particularly warming and drying trends) might be as important as the effects of habitat loss and degradation through pesticide accumulation and other processes. In this project, researchers investigate the role of montane environments as refugia during periods of climatic upheaval. In addition to continuing core data collection (biweekly presence/absence surveys), new information will be gathered on trophic networks and the response of insect populations to shifting climatic conditions mediated through plant resources (nectar sources in particular). Multiple types of observational data will be integrated into a statistical modeling framework that emphasizes forecasting with climatic uncertainty, and which will be validated on an annual basis through real-time forecasts updated within and among field seasons. Outcomes from this project will include inter-disciplinary tools for prediction with heterogeneous data sources, as well as advances on ecological theories of animals interacting with topographic complexity while responding to novel climatic conditions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.