Collaborative Research: Charismatic Politicians, Weak Parties, and the Disruption of Democracy

合作研究：魅力政治家、弱势政党和民主的破坏

• 批准号: 2116224
• 负责人: Rocio Titiunik
• 金额: $ 26.68万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-15 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2116224&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Charismatic; Politicians; Weak

Democracy is facing may challenges around the world, from the erosion of long-held democratic norms in mature democracies like the United States, to renewed party system upheaval in Latin America and Eastern Europe, to the full-blown autocratic reversal in countries like Turkey or Thailand. This project studies how the obstacles that parties face in controlling their politicians interact with electoral rules, contextual conditions, and voter pressures to produce two phenomena that contribute to the erosion of democracy. This project develops general theoretical arguments, collects data on parties and politicians from multiple countries, proposes new strategies to measure party system instability, politicians’ performance, and candidates’ charisma, and summarizes the findings in general policy recommendations. In contributing to the understanding of the causes behind democratic backsliding, the project will identify policies and institutional arrangements that are most conducive to stable political parties and healthy democracies, two key components of national prosperity and international peace.The research program integrates three key components: theory development, empirical analysis and methodological innovation. The project develops a series of formal theoretical models that examine the understudied strategic interactions between political parties as longer-lived entities and their shorter-sighted individual candidates, under the premise that these interactions can help explain a variety of forms of democratic disruption. The project develops new methodologies to capture hard-to-measure concepts of politician charisma, incumbent performance, and party strength. Using a series of quasi-experimental approaches and natural experiments, a rich set of novel empirical implications derived from the formal models are tested with data from multiple countries. The analyses both validate the theories and produce systematic empirical evidence to inform scholarly and policy debates.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

民主在世界各地面临着各种挑战，从美国等成熟民主国家长期坚持的民主规范受到侵蚀，到拉丁美洲和东欧重新出现的政党制度动荡，再到土耳其或泰国等国家的全面专制逆转。该项目研究了政党在控制其政治家时所面临的障碍如何与选举规则、背景条件和选民压力相互作用，从而产生两种有助于侵蚀民主的现象。 本研究通过对各国政党和政治家的数据进行收集，提出衡量政党制度的不稳定性、政治家的表现和候选人魅力的新策略，并将研究结果总结为一般性政策建议。本研究课题将从理论发展、实证分析和方法创新三个方面，探讨对国家繁荣和国际和平这两个关键要素--稳定的政党和健康的民主制度最有利的政策和制度安排，为理解民主倒退的原因做出贡献。该项目开发了一系列正式的理论模型，研究了政党作为长期存在的实体与其短视的个人候选人之间的战略互动，前提是这些互动可以帮助解释各种形式的民主破坏。 该项目开发了新的方法，以捕捉难以衡量的概念，政治家的魅力，在职表现和党的力量。 使用一系列准实验方法和自然实验，一套丰富的新的经验意义来自正式模型进行了测试，来自多个国家的数据。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。