Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Volatility Shocks, Financial Frictions, and Labor Force Reallocation

经济学博士论文研究：波动性冲击、金融摩擦和劳动力重新配置

• 批准号: 2116551
• 负责人: Yan Bai
• 金额: $ 2.5万
• 依托单位: University of Rochester
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-01 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2116551&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Volatility

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2). While it has been acknowledged that volatility shocks (increasing uncertainty) can raise firms’ bankruptcy risks and generate recessions, general assumption is that labor force is perfectly insured from these bankruptcies. This assumption deviates from the notion that labor force is averse to financially distressed firms. This project will focus on this aspect by considering that labor force is aware of firms’ bankruptcy risks and require higher wages to compensate for expected losses. Within this framework, a positive volatility shock amplifies the compensating wage differentials across firms with different leverage, driving labor force reallocation from highly leveraged firms to less leveraged firms. This project will develop a model and using data on labor force; the research will test the hypothesized effect of volatility shocks on labor force reallocation. The project will explore the corresponding welfare implications, which will have potential labor market policy implications.This research will use employer-employee matched data to show new empirical facts of how the relationship between volatility and labor market outcomes depends on firms’ financial conditions. The project will build on the hypothesis that higher volatility increases firms’ bankruptcy risks. Labor force is averse to firms’ bankruptcy risks. Thus, it is harder for highly leveraged firms to hire workforce, which will affect labor wages and employment. Labor force will reallocate to less leverage firms, implying the allocation of labor force across firms deviates from the optimal level. The mechanism considered in the project will be useful in explaining why the labor market was adversely affected during the financial crisis. The employer-employee matched data will be helpful in controlling the characteristics of firms and workforce. The project will explore the role of compensating wage differentials within the context of firms’ financial conditions. The research will further shed light on the role of firm heterogeneity over business cycles.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项全部或部分根据2021年美国救援计划法案（公法117-2）资助。虽然人们已经认识到波动性冲击（增加不确定性）会增加企业的破产风险并产生衰退，但一般的假设是劳动力完全不受这些破产的影响。这一假设偏离了劳动力厌恶财务困境企业的观点。本项目将考虑到劳动力意识到企业的破产风险，并要求提高工资以补偿预期损失，从而关注这一方面。在这个框架内，正波动冲击放大了不同杠杆率企业之间的补偿性工资差异，推动劳动力从高杠杆率企业重新分配到杠杆率较低的企业。本项目将开发一个模型，并使用劳动力数据，研究将测试波动冲击对劳动力重新分配的假设影响。本研究将利用雇主-雇员配对数据，揭示波动性与劳动力市场结果之间的关系如何取决于企业的财务状况这一新的实证事实。该项目将建立在更高的波动性增加公司破产风险的假设之上。劳动力对企业破产风险具有厌恶性。因此，高杠杆企业更难雇用劳动力，这将影响劳动力工资和就业。劳动力将向低杠杆企业重新配置，这意味着劳动力在企业间的配置偏离了最优水平。该项目中考虑的机制将有助于解释为什么劳动力市场在金融危机期间受到不利影响。雇主-雇员匹配数据将有助于控制企业和劳动力的特征。该项目将探讨在公司财务状况范围内补偿工资差异的作用。该研究将进一步阐明企业异质性在商业周期中的作用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。