Collaborative Research: Will changes in vegetation composition slow climate-driven wildfire growth in the boreal forests of northwestern North America?

合作研究：植被组成的变化是否会减缓北美西北部北方森林中气候驱动的野火增长？

• 批准号: 2116863
• 负责人: Winslow Hansen
• 金额: $ 49.95万
• 依托单位: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Inc.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-11-01 至 2024-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2116863&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Will; changes; vegetation

Arctic and boreal forests, tundra, and cold underlying soils together store 30% of the world’s terrestrial carbon, an amount twice that currently stored in the atmosphere. As the climate warms, Arctic and boreal wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, burning larger areas. These fires release older carbon to the atmosphere, and by doing so could affect global climate, change the forest ecosystems, and possibly slow climate-driven increases in fire activity. This project is exploring these system-level feedbacks between fire and vegetation, also called fire self-regulation, using techniques from ecosystem ecology, remote sensing, geostatistics, and simulation modeling. The team is producing new models that will enable more accurate forecasts of ecosystem, landscape, and regional change. The team is partnering with the Alaska Fire Science Consortium to develop new maps that enhance tools available for regional land-use and fire management and provide new training opportunities to land managers. The project also promotes interdisciplinary training and professional development for ecological scientists and supports career development of early career scientists and students, including members of underrepresented groups.This project is addressing two primary questions: (1) What is the current evidence for the ecological process of fire self-regulation, and can it slow the effects of climate warming on fire activity? (2) How does consideration of fire self-regulation affect projections of future ecosystem and landscape structure, function, and climate forcing? Multiple lines of evidence are being developed to test hypotheses about fire self-regulation in boreal forests of Interior Alaska, USA, and Northwest Territories, Canada, cold regions on discontinuous permafrost ground that have recently experienced unprecedented fire activity. The team is combining field and remote sensing data to quantify decadal patterns of burning and estimate the direction and magnitude of fire self-regulation processes. Researchers are integrating statistical inference with simulation modeling that is process-based and landscape-scale to predict current and future ecological dynamics and feedbacks. The results are informing improved tools for wildland and fire managers across Alaska, assisting with efforts to mitigate wildfire effects on residents and critical infrastructure.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北极和北方森林、冻土带和寒冷的底层土壤总共储存了世界陆地碳的30%，是目前储存在大气中的两倍。随着气候变暖，北极和北方的野火正变得更加频繁和激烈，燃烧着更大的地区。这些大火向大气中释放较老的碳，这样做可能会影响全球气候，改变森林生态系统，并可能减缓气候驱动的火灾活动的增加。本项目利用生态系统生态学、遥感、地统计学和模拟建模等技术，探索火与植被之间的系统级反馈，也称为火的自我调节。该团队正在开发新的模型，这些模型将能够更准确地预测生态系统、景观和区域变化。该小组正在与阿拉斯加火灾科学联合会合作开发新的地图，以加强可用于区域土地使用和火灾管理的工具，并为土地管理人员提供新的培训机会。该项目还促进了生态科学家的跨学科培训和专业发展，并支持早期职业科学家和学生的职业发展。该项目正在解决两个主要问题：(1)目前有什么证据表明火灾自我调节的生态过程，它能否减缓气候变暖对火灾活动的影响？(2)考虑火灾自我调节如何影响对未来生态系统和景观结构、功能和气候强迫的预测？在美国阿拉斯加内陆和加拿大西北地区的北方森林，以及最近经历了前所未有的火灾活动的不连续永久冻土层上的寒冷地区，正在开发多种证据来测试关于火灾自我调节的假设。该团队正在将现场和遥感数据结合起来，以量化燃烧的十年模式，并估计火灾自我调节过程的方向和规模。研究人员正在将统计推断与基于过程和景观尺度的模拟建模相结合，以预测当前和未来的生态动态和反馈。这一结果为阿拉斯加的荒地和消防管理者提供了改进的工具，帮助减轻野火对居民和关键基础设施的影响。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

The Dynamic Temperate and Boreal Fire and Forest-Ecosystem Simulator (DYNAFFOREST): Development and evaluation

动态温带、北方火灾和森林生态系统模拟器 (DYNAFFOREST)：开发和评估

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105473
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Modelling & Software
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Hansen, Winslow D.;Krawchuk, Meg A.;Trugman, Anna T.;Williams, A. Park
• 通讯作者: Williams, A. Park

The Permafrost and Organic LayEr module for Forest Models (POLE-FM) 1.0

森林模型的永久冻土和有机层模块 (POLE-FM) 1.0

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-2011-2023
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Hansen, Winslow D.;Foster, Adrianna;Gaglioti, Benjamin;Seidl, Rupert;Rammer, Werner
• 通讯作者: Rammer, Werner