Collaborative Research: Origins of Serial Sovereign Default
合作研究:系列主权违约的起源
基本信息
- 批准号:2117004
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 1.28万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2021
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2021-07-15 至 2023-06-30
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
AbstractSovereign nations have consistently borrowed from international financial markets for centuries, and this foreign debt remains an important source of funding for advanced and developing countries to the modern day. What sustains the existence of this market when there is no formal legal means of enforcing repayment? Standard economic models predict that defaulting on sovereign debt is deterred by the threat of investors refusing to engage in future lending. However, historically countries differ significantly in both their likelihood of default and ability to re-access financial markets after default. This research will examine what leads some countries to become serial defaulters – experiencing repeated cycles of borrowing and default – while others do not. This project will assemble a new database on sovereign borrowing and default consisting of both numerical and textual data. These data will document detailed default and debt issuance history as well as the perspectives of the general public, investors, and analysts. The project will have potential policy implications for sovereign borrowing decisions around the world, by improving the understanding of the reasons for sovereign defaults and investor willingness to lend. This research will investigate why some countries experience cycles of repeated borrowing and default. The project will build a new quantitative and textual database on sovereign borrowing, default, negotiations with lenders, and the economic and political circumstances relevant to sovereign debt. To assemble these data, the project will develop new adaptations of machine learning methods for natural language processing (NLP) to extract and analyze text. The data will be obtained from the universe of articles from major financial newspapers, annual reports by investors, and periodical publications by financial analysts. The project will develop a new deep learning model to correct for common Optical Character Recognition (OCR) errors. The project will further construct new text libraries to aide in NLP content classification, which will allow determining how investors perceive the motive of the sovereign, such as economic or political, in issuing or defaulting debt. The project will categorize countries as being a serial defaulter based on the frequency and duration of their defaults from 1820 to 1939. The research will then document how the political and economic circumstances of borrowing and default, including public, investor, and expert perceptions of the sovereign's motives, influence serial default decisions. What determines sovereign default and investor willingness to lend is not only relevant for understanding the history of sovereign debt but has implications for ongoing policy debates over debt restructuring, payment moratoriums, and bailouts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
几个世纪以来,主权国家一直从国际金融市场借款,这种外债仍然是发达国家和发展中国家的重要资金来源。在没有正式的法律的强制偿还手段的情况下,是什么维持了这一市场的存在?标准的经济模型预测,主权债务违约受到投资者拒绝参与未来贷款的威胁的威慑。然而,从历史上看,各国在违约的可能性和违约后重新进入金融市场的能力方面存在很大差异。本研究将考察是什么导致一些国家成为连续违约者--经历反复的借贷和违约循环--而另一些国家则没有。该项目将建立一个关于主权借款和违约的新数据库,包括数字和文本数据。这些数据将记录详细的违约和债务发行历史,以及公众、投资者和分析师的观点。该项目将通过增进对主权违约原因和投资者贷款意愿的理解,对世界各地的主权借款决定产生潜在的政策影响。本研究将探讨为什么一些国家会经历重复借贷和违约的周期。该项目将建立一个新的量化和文本数据库,涉及主权债务、违约、与贷款人的谈判以及与主权债务相关的经济和政治环境。为了收集这些数据,该项目将开发新的适应自然语言处理(NLP)的机器学习方法,以提取和分析文本。这些数据将从主要金融报纸的文章、投资者的年度报告和金融分析师的定期出版物中获得。该项目将开发一种新的深度学习模型,以纠正常见的光学字符识别(OCR)错误。该项目将进一步构建新的文本库,以帮助NLP内容分类,这将有助于确定投资者如何看待主权国家发行或违约债务的动机,例如经济或政治动机。该项目将根据1820年至1939年期间违约的频率和持续时间将国家归类为连续违约国。然后,研究将记录借款和违约的政治和经济环境,包括公众、投资者和专家对主权动机的看法,如何影响连续的违约决定。决定主权债务违约和投资者贷款意愿的因素不仅与理解主权债务的历史相关,而且对正在进行的债务重组、延期偿付和救助政策辩论具有影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
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Sasha Indarte其他文献
The Impact of Social Insurance on Household Debt
社会保险对家庭债务的影响
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2022 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Gideon Bornstein;Sasha Indarte - 通讯作者:
Sasha Indarte
Moral Hazard versus Liquidity in Household Bankruptcy
- DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3378669 - 发表时间:
2020-06 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Sasha Indarte - 通讯作者:
Sasha Indarte
Explaining Racial Disparities in Personal Bankruptcy Outcomes *
解释个人破产结果中的种族差异*
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2021 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
B. Argyle;Sasha Indarte - 通讯作者:
Sasha Indarte
Sasha Indarte的其他文献
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