Collaborative Research: Toward an integrated modeling framework for physics-based estimates of megathrust rupture potential

俯冲带是构造板块再循环回到地幔的地方，如美国太平洋西北部的卡斯卡迪亚边缘，是最大的地震发生地，并通过地面震动、山体滑坡和海啸造成重大危险。该项目旨在更好地利用重要的“自然实验室”（卡斯卡迪亚、日本和新西兰）现有的地球物理和地质观测结果，将它们更充分地合并到新的系统行为比较计算机模型中。开发新的建模软件和整合约束条件，预计将导致新的见解俯冲带地震的物理学，什么样的观测意味着未来的地震，更重要的是，哪些观测需要提高我们的俯冲带灾害的理解，以及如何减少系统行为的不确定性。该项目将涉及国际合作，利用过去的投资，并将有助于确定未来的最佳观测战略。学生和博士后的跨学科劳动力将通过研究和教育工作进行培训，俯冲地震建模的所有项目软件，教程和“食谱”将与社区共享，为推进计算地球科学方法做出贡献。一个针对大学预科生、本科生和格拉德生的项目将被开发，以强调计算地球科学是增强地球科学多样性的一种途径。这项合作努力旨在将日本、新西兰和日本自然俯冲带实验室的地震学、大地测量学、实验和地质学限制因素整合到数值模型中，以提高我们对巨型逆冲断层地震的理解。将部署用于数据同化的前向模型和新的数值建模框架，以更接近用于数据驱动、基于物理的灾害评估的多功能工具。重点是断层应力和强度在一系列时空尺度上的演变，量化参数的不确定性和敏感性。这将允许制定最佳策略，以便在存在模糊物理的情况下从数据中推断相关参数，包括正在进行的SZ4D社区工作中的最佳观测设计。所有的代码都将与食谱和教程一起公开沿着，网络化的努力将建立新的、定量的联系，并极大地利用个人的努力。FRES的资金将支持越来越多的固体地球动力学家，他们希望在灾害和监测环境中部署他们的模型。一个重点将是培训和跨学科计算地球科学的努力，从本科到博士后和从业人员水平共享材料。项目参与者将开发可持续的参与途径，并通过提供基于建模和遥感的新途径来补充基于实地的方法，从而提高地球科学的代表性和包容性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Subduction zones, where tectonic plates are recycled back into the mantle as in the Cascadia margin of the Pacific Northwest of the United States, host the largest earthquakes and give rise to significant hazard through ground shaking, landslides, and tsunami. This project seeks to better utilize existing geophysical and geological observations from important “natural laboratories” (Cascadia, Japan and New Zealand) by merging them more fully into new, comparative computer models of system behavior. Developing new modeling software and integrating constraints is expected to lead to new insights into the physics of subduction zone earthquakes, what observations imply for future earthquakes, and, importantly, which observations are needed to improve our understanding of subduction zone hazards and how to reduce uncertainties about system behavior. The project will involve international collaborations, leverage past investments, and will contribute to defining future, optimal observational strategies. An interdisciplinary workforce of students and post-docs will be trained through research and educational efforts, and all project software, tutorials and “cookbooks” for subduction earthquake modeling will be shared with the community, contributing to advancing computational geoscience approaches in general. A program for precollege, undergrad, and early grad students will be developed to emphasize computational geoscience as an avenue to enhance diversity in the geosciences.This collaborative effort seeks to integrate seismological, geodetic, experimental, and geological constraints for the Japan, New Zealand and Japan natural subduction zone laboratories into numerical models to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes. Forward models and a new numerical modeling framework for data assimilation will be deployed to get closer to versatile tools for data-driven, physics-based hazard assessment. The focus is on the evolution of fault stress and strength over a range of spatio-temporal scales, quantifying uncertainties and sensitivity to parameters. This will allow formulating best strategies for inferring relevant parameters from data in the presence of ambiguous physics, including optimal observational design within the ongoing SZ4D community effort. All code will be made publicly available along with cookbooks and tutorials, and a networked effort will establish new, quantitative links and leverage individual efforts greatly. FRES funding will support a growing community of solid Earth geodynamicists who want to deploy their models in a hazard and monitoring context. A focus will be on training and sharing material for interdisciplinary computational geoscience efforts, from undergraduate to post-doc and practitioner level. Project participants will develop sustainable pathways for participation and work to enhance representation and inclusion in the geosciences by providing new pathways of entry based on modeling and remote sensing to complement field-based approaches.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.