Collaborative Research: Toward an integrated modeling framework for physics-based estimates of megathrust rupture potential

在美国太平洋西北部的卡斯卡迪亚（Cascadia）边缘，构造板块被重新循环进入地幔的俯冲带，是最大地震的所在地，并会引发地面震动、山体滑坡和海啸等重大危险。该项目旨在更好地利用来自重要“自然实验室”（卡斯卡迪亚、日本和新西兰）的现有地球物理和地质观测，将它们更充分地合并到新的、系统行为的比较计算机模型中。开发新的建模软件和整合约束条件有望对俯冲带地震的物理性质、观测结果对未来地震的意义以及重要的是，需要哪些观测结果来提高我们对俯冲带危险的理解以及如何减少系统行为的不确定性产生新的见解。该项目将涉及国际合作，利用过去的投资，并将有助于确定未来的最佳观测策略。由学生和博士后组成的跨学科工作队伍将通过研究和教育工作进行培训，所有俯冲地震建模的项目软件、教程和“食谱”将与社区共享，为推进计算地球科学方法做出贡献。将为大学预科、本科生和早期研究生开发一个项目，强调计算地球科学是增强地球科学多样性的途径。这项合作旨在将日本、新西兰和日本自然俯冲带实验室的地震学、大地测量学、实验和地质限制因素整合到数值模型中，以提高我们对特大逆冲地震的理解。将部署正演模型和用于数据同化的新数值建模框架，以更接近数据驱动的、基于物理的危害评估的通用工具。重点是断层应力和强度在一系列时空尺度上的演变，量化不确定性和对参数的敏感性。这将允许制定最佳策略，从存在模糊物理的数据中推断相关参数，包括正在进行的SZ4D社区努力中的最佳观测设计。所有的代码都将与烹饪书和教程一起公开提供，网络努力将建立新的、定量的联系，并极大地利用个人的努力。FRES的资金将支持越来越多的固体地球动力学家，他们希望在灾害和监测环境中部署他们的模型。重点将放在跨学科计算地球科学工作的培训和共享材料上，从本科生到博士后和实践者水平。项目参与者将开发可持续的参与途径，并通过提供基于建模和遥感的新进入途径来补充基于实地的方法，努力提高地球科学的代表性和包容性。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Subduction zones, where tectonic plates are recycled back into the mantle as in the Cascadia margin of the Pacific Northwest of the United States, host the largest earthquakes and give rise to significant hazard through ground shaking, landslides, and tsunami. This project seeks to better utilize existing geophysical and geological observations from important “natural laboratories” (Cascadia, Japan and New Zealand) by merging them more fully into new, comparative computer models of system behavior. Developing new modeling software and integrating constraints is expected to lead to new insights into the physics of subduction zone earthquakes, what observations imply for future earthquakes, and, importantly, which observations are needed to improve our understanding of subduction zone hazards and how to reduce uncertainties about system behavior. The project will involve international collaborations, leverage past investments, and will contribute to defining future, optimal observational strategies. An interdisciplinary workforce of students and post-docs will be trained through research and educational efforts, and all project software, tutorials and “cookbooks” for subduction earthquake modeling will be shared with the community, contributing to advancing computational geoscience approaches in general. A program for precollege, undergrad, and early grad students will be developed to emphasize computational geoscience as an avenue to enhance diversity in the geosciences.This collaborative effort seeks to integrate seismological, geodetic, experimental, and geological constraints for the Japan, New Zealand and Japan natural subduction zone laboratories into numerical models to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes. Forward models and a new numerical modeling framework for data assimilation will be deployed to get closer to versatile tools for data-driven, physics-based hazard assessment. The focus is on the evolution of fault stress and strength over a range of spatio-temporal scales, quantifying uncertainties and sensitivity to parameters. This will allow formulating best strategies for inferring relevant parameters from data in the presence of ambiguous physics, including optimal observational design within the ongoing SZ4D community effort. All code will be made publicly available along with cookbooks and tutorials, and a networked effort will establish new, quantitative links and leverage individual efforts greatly. FRES funding will support a growing community of solid Earth geodynamicists who want to deploy their models in a hazard and monitoring context. A focus will be on training and sharing material for interdisciplinary computational geoscience efforts, from undergraduate to post-doc and practitioner level. Project participants will develop sustainable pathways for participation and work to enhance representation and inclusion in the geosciences by providing new pathways of entry based on modeling and remote sensing to complement field-based approaches.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.