Collaborative Research: Toward an integrated modeling framework for physics-based estimates of megathrust rupture potential
合作研究:建立基于物理的巨型逆冲破裂潜力估计的综合建模框架
基本信息
- 批准号:2121666
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 186.65万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:2021
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2021-09-01 至 2026-08-31
- 项目状态:未结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Subduction zones, where tectonic plates are recycled back into the mantle as in the Cascadia margin of the Pacific Northwest of the United States, host the largest earthquakes and give rise to significant hazard through ground shaking, landslides, and tsunami. This project seeks to better utilize existing geophysical and geological observations from important “natural laboratories” (Cascadia, Japan and New Zealand) by merging them more fully into new, comparative computer models of system behavior. Developing new modeling software and integrating constraints is expected to lead to new insights into the physics of subduction zone earthquakes, what observations imply for future earthquakes, and, importantly, which observations are needed to improve our understanding of subduction zone hazards and how to reduce uncertainties about system behavior. The project will involve international collaborations, leverage past investments, and will contribute to defining future, optimal observational strategies. An interdisciplinary workforce of students and post-docs will be trained through research and educational efforts, and all project software, tutorials and “cookbooks” for subduction earthquake modeling will be shared with the community, contributing to advancing computational geoscience approaches in general. A program for precollege, undergrad, and early grad students will be developed to emphasize computational geoscience as an avenue to enhance diversity in the geosciences.This collaborative effort seeks to integrate seismological, geodetic, experimental, and geological constraints for the Japan, New Zealand and Japan natural subduction zone laboratories into numerical models to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes. Forward models and a new numerical modeling framework for data assimilation will be deployed to get closer to versatile tools for data-driven, physics-based hazard assessment. The focus is on the evolution of fault stress and strength over a range of spatio-temporal scales, quantifying uncertainties and sensitivity to parameters. This will allow formulating best strategies for inferring relevant parameters from data in the presence of ambiguous physics, including optimal observational design within the ongoing SZ4D community effort. All code will be made publicly available along with cookbooks and tutorials, and a networked effort will establish new, quantitative links and leverage individual efforts greatly. FRES funding will support a growing community of solid Earth geodynamicists who want to deploy their models in a hazard and monitoring context. A focus will be on training and sharing material for interdisciplinary computational geoscience efforts, from undergraduate to post-doc and practitioner level. Project participants will develop sustainable pathways for participation and work to enhance representation and inclusion in the geosciences by providing new pathways of entry based on modeling and remote sensing to complement field-based approaches.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
俯冲带是构造板块再循环回到地幔的地方,如美国太平洋西北部的卡斯卡迪亚边缘,是最大的地震发生地,并通过地面震动、山体滑坡和海啸造成重大危险。该项目旨在更好地利用重要的“自然实验室”(卡斯卡迪亚、日本和新西兰)现有的地球物理和地质观测结果,将它们更充分地合并到新的系统行为比较计算机模型中。开发新的建模软件和整合约束条件,预计将导致新的见解俯冲带地震的物理学,什么样的观测意味着未来的地震,更重要的是,哪些观测需要提高我们的俯冲带灾害的理解,以及如何减少系统行为的不确定性。该项目将涉及国际合作,利用过去的投资,并将有助于确定未来的最佳观测战略。学生和博士后的跨学科劳动力将通过研究和教育工作进行培训,俯冲地震建模的所有项目软件,教程和“食谱”将与社区共享,为推进计算地球科学方法做出贡献。一个针对大学预科生、本科生和格拉德生的项目将被开发,以强调计算地球科学是增强地球科学多样性的一种途径。这项合作努力旨在将日本、新西兰和日本自然俯冲带实验室的地震学、大地测量学、实验和地质学限制因素整合到数值模型中,以提高我们对巨型逆冲断层地震的理解。将部署用于数据同化的前向模型和新的数值建模框架,以更接近用于数据驱动、基于物理的灾害评估的多功能工具。重点是断层应力和强度在一系列时空尺度上的演变,量化参数的不确定性和敏感性。这将允许制定最佳策略,以便在存在模糊物理的情况下从数据中推断相关参数,包括正在进行的SZ4D社区工作中的最佳观测设计。所有的代码都将与食谱和教程一起公开沿着,网络化的努力将建立新的、定量的联系,并极大地利用个人的努力。FRES的资金将支持越来越多的固体地球动力学家,他们希望在灾害和监测环境中部署他们的模型。一个重点将是培训和跨学科计算地球科学的努力,从本科到博士后和从业人员水平共享材料。项目参与者将开发可持续的参与途径,并通过提供基于建模和遥感的新途径来补充基于实地的方法,从而提高地球科学的代表性和包容性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(25)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Comparison of methods for coupled earthquake and tsunami modelling
地震海啸耦合模拟方法比较
- DOI:10.1093/gji/ggad053
- 发表时间:2023
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.8
- 作者:Abrahams, Lauren S.;Krenz, Lukas;Dunham, Eric M.;Gabriel, Alice-Agnes;Saito, Tatsuhiko
- 通讯作者:Saito, Tatsuhiko
GrowClust3D.jl: A Julia Package for the Relative Relocation of Earthquake Hypocenters Using 3D Velocity Models
GrowClust3D.jl:使用 3D 速度模型进行地震震源相对迁移的 Julia 包
- DOI:10.1785/0220220193
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.3
- 作者:Trugman, Daniel T.;Chamberlain, Calum J.;Savvaidis, Alexandros;Lomax, Anthony
- 通讯作者:Lomax, Anthony
Resolving Differences in the Rupture Properties of M5 Earthquakes in California Using Bayesian Source Spectral Analysis
- DOI:10.1029/2021jb023526
- 发表时间:2022-03
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:D. Trugman
- 通讯作者:D. Trugman
The occurrence and hazards of great subduction zone earthquakes
- DOI:10.1038/s43017-021-00245-w
- 发表时间:2022-01
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:42.1
- 作者:E. Wirth;V. Sahakian;L. Wallace;D. Melnick
- 通讯作者:E. Wirth;V. Sahakian;L. Wallace;D. Melnick
Instantaneous Physics‐Based Ground Motion Maps Using Reduced‐Order Modeling
- DOI:10.1029/2023jb026975
- 发表时间:2022-12
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:J. Rekoske;A. Gabriel;David May
- 通讯作者:J. Rekoske;A. Gabriel;David May
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Thorsten Becker其他文献
12 Up and Over: How Do Rivers Climb Mountains? Constraining groundwater’s role in forming crater lake inlets on early Mars
12 反复:河流如何攀爬山脉?限制地下水在形成早期火星火山口湖入口方面的作用?
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Hiruni Dissanayake;Naveen Sudharsan;Dev K. Niyogi;Lochana Kalyanaraman;Ifeanyichukwu Nduka;Cameron Cummins;Geeta Persad;Enrique Morales;Nicola Tisato;Erick Herrera;Caitlin Moeller;Doug Hemingway;Jesse Do;Lucia Bellino;Chenguang Sun;Jhovanni Loeza;Eric Hiatt;Marc A. Hesse;Jorge Garcia;Huiwen Sun;Thorsten Becker;Daniel Trugman;Julia Daniel;Jacqueline Epperson;M. Malkowski;Keira Boehle;Ramon Gil - 通讯作者:
Ramon Gil
Notfallversorgung in Industrieanlagen
- DOI:
10.1007/s10049-022-01095-9 - 发表时间:
2022-11-22 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:1.100
- 作者:
Thorsten Becker - 通讯作者:
Thorsten Becker
Thorsten Becker的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Thorsten Becker', 18)}}的其他基金
Collaborative Research: Vertical signatures of lithospheric deformation in the western US
合作研究:美国西部岩石圈变形的垂直特征
- 批准号:
2045292 - 财政年份:2021
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Resolving Earth Structure Influence on Ice-Sheet Stability in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (RESISSt)
合作研究:解决地球结构对威尔克斯冰下盆地冰盖稳定性的影响 (RESISSt)
- 批准号:
1914743 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Consequences of flat slab subduction on the chemical, structural, and dynamic evolution of continental lithosphere
合作研究:平板俯冲对大陆岩石圈化学、结构和动态演化的影响
- 批准号:
1925939 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Structure and depth extent of lithospheric shear zones surrounding continental transform faults
合作研究:大陆转换断层周围岩石圈剪切带的结构和深度范围
- 批准号:
1927216 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Global plate tectonics and mantle convection with damage memory
全球板块构造和具有损伤记忆的地幔对流
- 批准号:
1853856 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Collaborative Research: RAPID: Using the M6.4-7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake sequence to test a postseismic stress evolution monitoring system
合作研究:RAPID:使用加利福尼亚州里奇克莱斯特 M6.4-7.1 地震序列测试震后应力演化监测系统
- 批准号:
1944717 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
RCN: Planning for a Modeling Collaboratory for Subduction Zone Science
RCN:俯冲带科学建模实验室规划
- 批准号:
1824343 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Multi-scale models of subduction zone earthquake cycle observations
合作研究:俯冲带地震周期观测的多尺度模型
- 批准号:
1722680 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Shear-wave Splitting and Mantle Dynamics of the North American Plate
合作研究:北美板块的剪切波分裂和地幔动力学
- 批准号:
1719204 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Estimating global subduction mass transport
估计全球俯冲质量传输
- 批准号:
1720839 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 186.65万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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