Collaborative Research: Toward an integrated modeling framework for physics-based estimates of megathrust rupture potential

俯冲带是构造板块循环回到地幔的地方，如美国太平洋西北部的卡斯卡迪亚边缘，是最大地震的发源地，并通过地面震动、山体滑坡和海啸产生重大危险。该项目寻求更好地利用来自重要“自然实验室”(卡斯卡迪亚、日本和新西兰)的现有地球物理和地质观测，将它们更全面地合并到系统行为的新的、可比较的计算机模型中。开发新的建模软件和整合约束条件有望带来对俯冲带地震的物理学的新见解，观测对未来地震意味着什么，以及重要的是，需要哪些观测来提高我们对俯冲带危险的理解，以及如何减少系统行为的不确定性。该项目将涉及国际合作，利用过去的投资，并将有助于确定未来的最佳观测战略。将通过研究和教育努力培训一支由学生和博士后组成的跨学科队伍，并将与社区共享俯冲地震建模的所有项目软件、教程和“食谱”，从而促进全面推进计算地球科学方法。将为大学预科、本科生和早期研究生开发一个项目，强调计算地球科学作为增强地球科学多样性的途径。这一合作努力寻求将日本、新西兰和日本自然俯冲带实验室的地震学、大地测量、实验和地质约束整合到数值模型中，以促进我们对大地震的理解。将部署正向模式和新的数据同化数值模拟框架，以更接近以数据为驱动、以物理为基础的危险评估的通用工具。重点是断层应力和强度在一系列时空尺度上的演变，量化不确定性和对参数的敏感性。这将允许制定在存在模糊物理的情况下从数据中推断相关参数的最佳策略，包括正在进行的SZ4D社区工作中的最佳观测设计。所有代码将与食谱和教程一起公开提供，联网的努力将建立新的量化链接，并极大地利用个人努力。FRES资金将支持越来越多的固体地球地球动力学专家，他们希望在灾害和监测背景下部署他们的模型。重点将放在培训和共享跨学科计算地球科学努力的材料上，从本科生到博士后和实践者水平。项目参与者将开发可持续的参与途径，并努力通过提供基于建模和遥感的新进入途径来加强在地球科学中的代表性和包容性，以补充基于实地的方法。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Subduction zones, where tectonic plates are recycled back into the mantle as in the Cascadia margin of the Pacific Northwest of the United States, host the largest earthquakes and give rise to significant hazard through ground shaking, landslides, and tsunami. This project seeks to better utilize existing geophysical and geological observations from important “natural laboratories” (Cascadia, Japan and New Zealand) by merging them more fully into new, comparative computer models of system behavior. Developing new modeling software and integrating constraints is expected to lead to new insights into the physics of subduction zone earthquakes, what observations imply for future earthquakes, and, importantly, which observations are needed to improve our understanding of subduction zone hazards and how to reduce uncertainties about system behavior. The project will involve international collaborations, leverage past investments, and will contribute to defining future, optimal observational strategies. An interdisciplinary workforce of students and post-docs will be trained through research and educational efforts, and all project software, tutorials and “cookbooks” for subduction earthquake modeling will be shared with the community, contributing to advancing computational geoscience approaches in general. A program for precollege, undergrad, and early grad students will be developed to emphasize computational geoscience as an avenue to enhance diversity in the geosciences.This collaborative effort seeks to integrate seismological, geodetic, experimental, and geological constraints for the Japan, New Zealand and Japan natural subduction zone laboratories into numerical models to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes. Forward models and a new numerical modeling framework for data assimilation will be deployed to get closer to versatile tools for data-driven, physics-based hazard assessment. The focus is on the evolution of fault stress and strength over a range of spatio-temporal scales, quantifying uncertainties and sensitivity to parameters. This will allow formulating best strategies for inferring relevant parameters from data in the presence of ambiguous physics, including optimal observational design within the ongoing SZ4D community effort. All code will be made publicly available along with cookbooks and tutorials, and a networked effort will establish new, quantitative links and leverage individual efforts greatly. FRES funding will support a growing community of solid Earth geodynamicists who want to deploy their models in a hazard and monitoring context. A focus will be on training and sharing material for interdisciplinary computational geoscience efforts, from undergraduate to post-doc and practitioner level. Project participants will develop sustainable pathways for participation and work to enhance representation and inclusion in the geosciences by providing new pathways of entry based on modeling and remote sensing to complement field-based approaches.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.