Predicting impacts of coastal species redistribution in a changing climate

该项目将提高我们预测气候变化中沿海物种地理范围变化的影响的能力。虽然随着气候变暖，一些物种可能需要改变活动范围以避免灭绝，但新物种的到来也会导致种群数量下降和生物多样性丧失。研究人员正在制定方法，利用以前在入侵物种风险评估中得到验证的技术，预测沿着太平洋海岸线范围转移的影响。本研究的研究目标与教育活动相结合：本科生和研究生参与数据收集和分析，并实施分层指导计划，为调查员的少数民族服务机构内的英语学习者服务。研究人员还与美国和墨西哥的外展组织合作，教育K-12学生和多个利益相关者团体了解气候驱动的范围变化和预测再分配结果的工具，这可以帮助从业人员制定管理计划和政策。这项研究正在制定一个框架，以了解海洋物种重新分布的影响，重点是极地-从北方加州到墨西哥巴哈的岩石海岸线上移动的食肉海螺物种。项目的目标是：1）量化迁移物种对扩大范围内的种群和群落的影响; 2）评估迁移物种的影响在其原生范围和扩大范围之间是否存在差异; 3）预测气候变暖下的未来影响。调查员正在解决社区生态学中的基本问题，即物种之间的相互作用在多大程度上取决于密度和环境。她正在将观察和实验方法与更广泛的数据综合工作相结合，以测试物种重新分布的影响是否可以通过入侵影响的关键指标来预测：丰度，营养级和对原生范围的影响。经验数据结合配对的人口和分布模型将被用来预测未来的影响，在扩大范围的这些沿海海洋物种。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准的支持。

This project will improve our ability to anticipate the impacts of shifts in the geographic range of coastal species in a changing climate. Although range shifts may be necessary for some species to avoid extinction as the climate warms, the arrival of new ones to an ecosystem can also lead to population declines and loss of biodiversity. The investigator is developing approaches to predict the impacts of range shifts along Pacific shorelines using techniques that have been previously validated for risk assessments for invasive species. The research objectives of this study are integrated with educational activities: engagement of undergraduate and graduate students in data collection and analysis and implementation of a hierarchical mentoring program to serve English Language Learners within the investigator’s Minority Serving Institution. The investigator is also partnering with outreach organizations in the U.S. and Mexico to educate K-12 students and multiple stakeholder groups about climate-driven range shifts and tools for predicting outcomes of redistribution, which can assist practitioners in creating management plans and policies.This study is developing a framework for understanding the impacts of marine species redistribution with a focus on poleward-moving carnivorous whelk species in rocky shorelines from Northern California to Baja, Mexico. Project goals are to 1) quantify the impacts of shifting species on populations and communities in the expanded range; 2) assess whether impacts of shifting species differ between their native and expanded ranges; and 3) predict future impacts under climate warming. The investigator is addressing fundamental questions in community ecology about the degree to which species interactions are density- and context-dependent. She is combining observational and experimental approaches with a broader data synthesis effort to test whether the impacts of species redistribution can be predicted by key indicators of invasion impacts: abundance, trophic level, and impacts in the native range. Empirical data combined with paired demographic and distribution modeling will be used to project future impacts across the expanded ranges of these coastal marine species.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.