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Climate change and multiple stressors in high mountain areas. Vulnerability, adaptive capacity and human security in Nager (Karakoram), Pakistan.

气候变化和高山区的多重压力源。

基本信息

批准号：
248499806
负责人：
Professor Dr. Hermann Kreutzmann
金额：
--
依托单位：
Zentrum für Geographien globaler Ungleichheiten
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/248499806?language=en
关键词：
Climate change multiple stressors mountain

项目摘要

The high mountains of South and Central Asia are among the areas most exposed to the effects of global warming, where small changes in climatic conditions can result in significant changes in local living conditions. Yet, beyond these general insights, a research gap remains on how climate change related risks manifest socially in specific local contexts. As a result, climate change research often relies on simplified assumptions, neglecting the complexity and dynamics of social systems and disregarding other social, political and economic stressors that, in local circumstances, might be more severe than climatic changes. The research project builds on social science approaches at the nexus of climate change and human security and focuses on the Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan - a region that has received only scant attention when focusing on the social consequences of climate change. A detailed empirical study will be conducted in Nager, a high mountain oasis where predominant livelihood strategies largely rely on practises of combined mountain agriculture in a fragile environment. The project aims to better understand the significance of climate change-related risks for the livelihoods and human security of local populations by considering climate change as only one of several concurring processes of local change. By identifying and analysing the causal relationships between complex and multiscalar socio-economic, political-historical and climatic changes, and actual risks on the household level, we intend to determine the significance of these processes from a local and holistic perspective. For this purpose, a modular and multi-method research framework is developed that involves extensive field work in several villages of Nager. Accounting for the lack of local climate data, changes in climate and related risks will be estimated by assessing local perceptions and analysing various other proxy indicators. Social, economic and political processes and their attendant risks will be investigated on a regional and village scale by conducting participatory research methods, expert interviews and analysing secondary data sources. Furthermore, we assess local risk perceptions as well as individual adaptive strategies and capacities to cope with climatic, socio-economic and other stressors in detailed, semi-structured household interviews. The research project contributes to fill a regional research gap and intends to develop and field-test an analytical toolbox to operationalise the predominantly theoretical approaches aiming to explore the nexus of climate change in the context of multiple insecurities. By taking a people-centred approach, we aim at contributing to an evolving social science discourse in the natural science-dominated research field on the effects of climate change in the Global South.

南亚和中亚的高山是受全球变暖影响最大的地区之一，那里气候条件的微小变化可能会导致当地生活条件的重大变化。然而，除了这些普遍的见解之外，关于气候变化相关风险如何在特定的地方背景下表现为社会方面的研究空白仍然存在。因此，气候变化研究往往依赖于简化的假设，忽视了社会制度的复杂性和动态性，也忽视了在当地情况下可能比气候变化更严重的其他社会、政治和经济压力。该研究项目建立在气候变化和人类安全结合点的社会科学方法基础上，重点关注巴基斯坦的喀喇昆仑山脉--该地区在关注气候变化的社会后果时只得到了很少的关注。一项详细的实证研究将在纳格尔进行，这是一个高山绿洲，在那里，主要的生计战略在很大程度上依赖于在脆弱的环境中实行山区农业组合。该项目旨在更好地了解与气候变化有关的风险对当地人民生计和人类安全的重要性，将气候变化视为当地变化的几个同时发生的过程之一。通过确定和分析复杂和多尺度的社会-经济、政治-历史和气候变化与家庭一级的实际风险之间的因果关系，我们打算从地方和整体角度确定这些进程的重要性。为此，开发了一个模块化和多方法的研究框架，涉及到纳格尔几个村庄的广泛实地工作。由于缺乏当地气候数据，将通过评估当地看法和分析各种其他替代指标来估计气候变化和相关风险。将通过采用参与性研究方法、专家访谈和分析二级数据来源，在区域和村庄范围内调查社会、经济和政治进程及其伴随的风险。此外，我们通过详细的、半结构化的家庭访谈，评估当地的风险认知以及个人应对气候、社会经济和其他压力因素的适应战略和能力。该研究项目有助于填补区域研究空白，并打算开发和实地测试一个分析工具箱，以便将以理论为主的方法付诸实施，目的是在多重不安全的情况下探索气候变化的相互关系。通过采取以人为本的方法，我们的目标是在以自然科学为主导的研究领域，在气候变化对全球南方的影响方面，促进不断发展的社会科学话语。