Collaborative Research: BEE: Integrating Evolutionary Genetics and Population Ecology to Detect Contemporary Adaptation to Climate Change Across a Species Range

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This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).Plant and animal populations typically perform best in the particular environments in which they evolved. However, climate change is now disrupting the evolved fit between organisms and their environments, leading to population declines. Natural areas loved by people and required by native species are being drastically and rapidly changed as key species are lost. But, if there is genetic variation in the ability to survive and reproduce in a changing climate, then evolution may lift population growth enough to enable population persistence. This study will provide policy makers and conservation managers guidelines to evaluate the potential efficacy of such evolutionary rescue. The PIs will measure population growth rates and the speed of evolutionary response of Scarlet Monkeyflower to the major, multi-year drought that took place between 2011-2016 in the western United States. This project will also provide training in ecological, evolutionary, and statistical concepts and approaches for high school students, undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral researchers, including those from underrepresented groups.Although adaptation by natural selection and population trends (demography) are typically studied separately by evolutionary biologists and ecologists, respectively, they are fundamentally connected by fitness. In declining populations, individual fitness is generally low and individuals do not replace themselves. However, heritable variation for critical traits can allow adaptive evolution, boost fitness, and lead to increased population growth rate. An important question is whether adaptation to changing climate will be faster than the rate of demographic decline. This study will use reciprocal transplant and resurrection studies spanning the native range of the Scarlet Monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis) in Oregon and California to evaluate natural selection during the 2011-2016 mega-drought. The PIs will determine if natural selection during the drought led to increased population growth rate, and whether this change was greatest in populations that started with the most heritable variation for drought-related traits and fitness.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.