A multi-modal social force model for conflict analysis and assessment of traffic safety and capability of shared spaces

该项目的目的是为所有交通模式开发运动和预测性冲突避免行为模型，以真实地复制道路使用者在共享空间中的复杂行为。这使得能够开发一种工具，早在规划过程的设计阶段就可以帮助评估这类交通区域的交通安全。特别是考虑到冲突解决战略方面，在第一个供资期，一个多一个层模型，包括一个现实的近似人类的感知，并导致在选择一个特定的冲突解决策略，为每一个冲突局势。利用该模型的模拟导致可行的结果，已验证对现实世界的数据，使用宏观交通参数。然而，对交通状况的进一步分析表明，特别是骑自行车的人在许多情况下表现出广泛的可能行为方式。考虑尽可能多的不同的行为方式对于检查交通安全是至关重要的。目前的确定性模型不允许同时考虑多种行为方式。出于这个原因，在拟议的项目中，所有可观察到的冲突解决策略将从现实世界的数据中提取，并确定和分析导致选择特定策略的因素。在此基础上，建立了冲突解决策略选择的随机决策模型，并将其与冲突解决策略集成到整体模型中。此外，决策模型还考虑了人类感知的不确定性。第一个资助期的研究表明，不仅冲突情况下的行为，而且自由流动的运动也是不同外部因素的基础。由于上一个供资期间的重点是分析冲突局势，因此这些影响是定性检测的，但没有详细参数化。然而，为了全面评估交通安全，必须对所有发生的情况进行评估，包括自由流动和冲突情况。为了满足这些要求，在一个仿真模型，在拟议的项目中，支配自由流运动的因素被确定，量化，然后用于自动生成现实的自由流示意图最后，安全措施开发的共享空间交叉口布局的交通安全评估。结合扩展模型，可以根据模拟结果评估特定交通区域的安全性。

The aim of this project is the development of motion and predictive conflict avoidance behavior models for all traffic modes, in order to realistically replicate the complex behavior of road users in shared spaces. This allows for the development of a tool that can assist with the estimation of traffic safety in this type of traffic areas as early as the design stage of a planning process.Specifically considering the aspect of conflict solving strategies, in the first funding period, a multi-layer model was developed that comprises a realistic approximation of the human perception and results in the choice of a specific conflict solving strategy for each conflict situation. Simulations utilizing this model lead to feasible results that have been validated against real-world data using macroscopic traffic parameters. However, further analysis of traffic situations revealed that especially cyclists present a broad spectrum of possible ways of behavior in many situations. The consideration of as many different ways of behavior as possible is of paramount importance for an examination of traffic safety. The current deterministic model does not allow for the simultaneous consideration of multiple ways of behavior. For this reason, in the proposed project all observable conflict solving strategies will be extracted from the real-world data and the factors which lead to the choice of a specific strategy are identified and analyzed. Based on these factors, a stochastic decisional model for the choice of conflict solving strategies is developed and, in connection with the strategies, integrated into the overall model. Additionally, the decisional model considers uncertainties in human perception.Research during the first funding period revealed that not only the behavior in a conflict situation but also free flow movements underlie different external factors. Since in the last funding period the focus was on the analysis of conflict situations, these effects were qualitatively detected, but not parametrized in detail. However, for a comprehensive assessment of traffic safety an evaluation of all occurring situations, both free flow movements as well as conflict situations, is necessary. To meet these requirements in respect to a simulation model, in the proposed project, the factors that govern free flow movements are determined, quantified and then used to automatically generate realistic free flow trajectoriesFinally, safety measurements are developed for estimating the traffic safety of shared space intersection layouts. In conjunction with the extended model, it is possible to assess the safety of specific traffic areas based on simulation results.