A multi-modal social force model for conflict analysis and assessment of traffic safety and capability of shared spaces

用于冲突分析和交通安全和共享空间能力评估的多模态社会力模型

基本信息

批准号：
248905318
负责人：
Professor Dr.-Ing. Volker Berkhahn
金额：
--
依托单位：
Institut für Verkehr und Stadtbauwesen
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2021-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/248905318?language=en
关键词：
multi modal social force model

项目摘要

The aim of this project is the development of motion and predictive conflict avoidance behavior models for all traffic modes, in order to realistically replicate the complex behavior of road users in shared spaces. This allows for the development of a tool that can assist with the estimation of traffic safety in this type of traffic areas as early as the design stage of a planning process.Specifically considering the aspect of conflict solving strategies, in the first funding period, a multi-layer model was developed that comprises a realistic approximation of the human perception and results in the choice of a specific conflict solving strategy for each conflict situation. Simulations utilizing this model lead to feasible results that have been validated against real-world data using macroscopic traffic parameters. However, further analysis of traffic situations revealed that especially cyclists present a broad spectrum of possible ways of behavior in many situations. The consideration of as many different ways of behavior as possible is of paramount importance for an examination of traffic safety. The current deterministic model does not allow for the simultaneous consideration of multiple ways of behavior. For this reason, in the proposed project all observable conflict solving strategies will be extracted from the real-world data and the factors which lead to the choice of a specific strategy are identified and analyzed. Based on these factors, a stochastic decisional model for the choice of conflict solving strategies is developed and, in connection with the strategies, integrated into the overall model. Additionally, the decisional model considers uncertainties in human perception.Research during the first funding period revealed that not only the behavior in a conflict situation but also free flow movements underlie different external factors. Since in the last funding period the focus was on the analysis of conflict situations, these effects were qualitatively detected, but not parametrized in detail. However, for a comprehensive assessment of traffic safety an evaluation of all occurring situations, both free flow movements as well as conflict situations, is necessary. To meet these requirements in respect to a simulation model, in the proposed project, the factors that govern free flow movements are determined, quantified and then used to automatically generate realistic free flow trajectoriesFinally, safety measurements are developed for estimating the traffic safety of shared space intersection layouts. In conjunction with the extended model, it is possible to assess the safety of specific traffic areas based on simulation results.

该项目的目的是为所有流量模式的运动和预测冲突避免行为模型的开发，以便在共享空间中现实地复制道路使用者的复杂行为。这允许开发一种工具，该工具早在计划过程的设计阶段就可以在此类交通区域中估算交通安全性。特别是考虑到解决冲突策略的方面，在第一个融资期内，开发了多层模型，包括对人类感知的现实近似和对每种特定冲突策略的选择的现实近似，以实现对每种特定冲突策略的选择。利用此模型的仿真导致可行的结果，这些结果已使用宏观流量参数对现实数据进行了验证。但是，对交通状况的进一步分析表明，在许多情况下，尤其是骑自行车的人都提出了各种可能的行为方式。对尽可能多的不同行为方式的考虑对于检查交通安全至关重要。当前的确定性模型不允许同时考虑多种行为方式。因此，在拟议的项目中，所有可观察到的冲突解决策略将从现实世界数据中提取，并确定和分析导致选择特定策略的因素。基于这些因素，开发了用于选择冲突策略的随机决定模型，并与策略有关，将其集成到整体模型中。此外，决策模型考虑了人类感知中的不确定性。在第一个资金期间进行研究表明，不仅在冲突情况下的行为，而且自由流动运动是不同的外部因素的基础。由于在最后一个资金期间，重点是对冲突情况的分析，因此被定性地检测到了这些影响，但没有详细地进行参数。但是，对于对交通安全的全面评估，必须评估所有发生的情况，包括自由流动以及冲突情况。为了满足对模拟模型的这些要求，在拟议的项目中，确定，量化自由流动的因素，然后用于自动生成逼真的自由流轨迹，开发了安全测量，以估算共享空间交叉点布局的交通安全性。结合扩展模型，可以根据模拟结果评估特定交通区域的安全性。