A multi-modal social force model for conflict analysis and assessment of traffic safety and capability of shared spaces

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The aim of this project is the development of motion and predictive conflict avoidance behavior models for all traffic modes, in order to realistically replicate the complex behavior of road users in shared spaces. This allows for the development of a tool that can assist with the estimation of traffic safety in this type of traffic areas as early as the design stage of a planning process.Specifically considering the aspect of conflict solving strategies, in the first funding period, a multi-layer model was developed that comprises a realistic approximation of the human perception and results in the choice of a specific conflict solving strategy for each conflict situation. Simulations utilizing this model lead to feasible results that have been validated against real-world data using macroscopic traffic parameters. However, further analysis of traffic situations revealed that especially cyclists present a broad spectrum of possible ways of behavior in many situations. The consideration of as many different ways of behavior as possible is of paramount importance for an examination of traffic safety. The current deterministic model does not allow for the simultaneous consideration of multiple ways of behavior. For this reason, in the proposed project all observable conflict solving strategies will be extracted from the real-world data and the factors which lead to the choice of a specific strategy are identified and analyzed. Based on these factors, a stochastic decisional model for the choice of conflict solving strategies is developed and, in connection with the strategies, integrated into the overall model. Additionally, the decisional model considers uncertainties in human perception.Research during the first funding period revealed that not only the behavior in a conflict situation but also free flow movements underlie different external factors. Since in the last funding period the focus was on the analysis of conflict situations, these effects were qualitatively detected, but not parametrized in detail. However, for a comprehensive assessment of traffic safety an evaluation of all occurring situations, both free flow movements as well as conflict situations, is necessary. To meet these requirements in respect to a simulation model, in the proposed project, the factors that govern free flow movements are determined, quantified and then used to automatically generate realistic free flow trajectoriesFinally, safety measurements are developed for estimating the traffic safety of shared space intersection layouts. In conjunction with the extended model, it is possible to assess the safety of specific traffic areas based on simulation results.