CAREER: Self-Consistent Density Estimates from Accelerometers for Improved Understanding, Modeling, and Forecasting of Upper Atmosphere Variability

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This CAREER award supports a study at the University of West Virginia (UWV) designed to enhance the understanding, modeling, and forecasting of upper atmosphere variability by developing an orbital decay prediction capability for active satellites and space debris. High precision, high resolution accelerometer-derived mass density estimates have been the workhorse of scientific investigations and modeling efforts for the upper atmosphere density over the past two decades. However, the current limited knowledge of Gas-Surface Interaction (GSI) used in the density determination based upon measured atmospheric drag has the consequence that model results are not self-consistent. An iterative process can address this inconsistency, but this requirement complicates an already complex process and can be computationally challenging. The award is aimed at resolving this inconsistency through the development of a full-state (composition, temperature, winds) reduced order model (ROM) and directly assimilating drag acceleration measurements to simultaneously estimate the GSI effects and thermosphere parameters. Using these estimated parameters, the developed GSI model would be used to comprehensively investigate the spatial and temporal response of neutral density to geomagnetic storms and would serve as an invaluable resource for advancing science and operations. Accurate orbit predictions can provide more confidence in decision-making, enhance the safety of humans in space and facilitate long-term preservation of the space environment. This CAREER award would support the UWA space science education through initiatives targeted at rural, first-generation, Appalachian students and K-12 teachers. The award would support the training of two graduate and multiple undergraduate students in both research and educational outreach activities. A new course called “Space Physics and Space Systems” would be introduced into the mechanical and aeronautical engineering curriculum.The research supported by this award would achieve the development of a ROM for physics-based upper atmosphere density models, expanding its role in science and operations. The ROM would make the process of deriving densities estimates using measurements of acceleration on-board satellites become more self-consistent and would provide new insights into the temporal and spatial response of the neutral density to geomagnetic storms. It would also help operators advance accurate modeling of satellite drag for orbit prediction, collision avoidance and space environment sustainability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.