RAPID: Mathematical models for uncovering neurological disorders among the U.S. population infected with COVID-19

RAPID：揭示美国感染 COVID-19 人群神经系统疾病的数学模型

• 批准号: 2140493
• 负责人: Steven Krantz
• 金额: $ 14.49万
• 依托单位: Washington University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-15 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2140493&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Mathematical; models; uncovering; neurological

The COVID-19 virus has been statistically linked to specific medical disorders connected to the brain and nervous system. Although in the past a fraction of SARS and MER patients have been shown to have anxiety and other neurological disorders, the scale of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021 is another order of magnitude. The reasons for neurological disorders among COVID-19 patients in the U.S. and other countries are not clear, but the data indicate that some of COVID-19 patients have issues with their awareness, consciousness, and cognizance. Experiments have been conducted on patients worldwide and data was recorded on the behavior of COVID-19 patients. In this project, the principal investigators will develop a mathematical model for an understanding of these neurological mechanisms. The model to be developed will be validated and verified. Once the model is calibrated with data from the U.S. and other countries, the investigators will study the role of COVID in developing brain disorders. They will combine the predictability of the model according to the stochastic volatility of the parameters. The results will have an important impact on the overall well-being of the population and society as a whole.If uncertainty concerning the reasons behind brain damage continues then that could further increase the number of people in the U.S. who would have neurological disorders. In spite of the positive influence of vaccination programs, COVID-19 causes some of neurological disorders among the current patients. Along with the COVID-19 burden, hospitals and health administrators need to understand other long-term, brain-related disorders in the population. A good, quantitative study will be of immediate help in controlling the incidence of brain-related damaged individuals who have COVID-19 in the U.S. The investigators intend to provide a free consultation to neuro-physicians across the nation if and when they need any immediate quantitative assistance in predictions (within a limited time frame). The investigators will develop a mathematical model to understand the size and complexity of the association between brain deterioration and COVID-19 in the U.S. Specifically, they will predict and evaluate people in the U.S. who will likely have neurological disorders like psychosis, hemorrhage, delirium, and stroke. Clinical data have shown some association, but why there are such causes of disorders for the COVID patients is not yet clear from these studies. Several studies among COVID patients have found a statistical correlation between clinical case definitions for psychiatric diagnoses and intracerebral hemorrhage. Another uncertainty remains in understanding the impact of COVID in blood-brain barrier locations; clinical studies are in progress in this direction. A statistical regression analysis on a large clinical population might provide an association among various independent variables of neurological disorders.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

据统计，COVID-19病毒与大脑和神经系统相关的特定医学疾病有关。尽管过去一小部分SARS和MER患者被证明患有焦虑和其他神经系统疾病，但2020年和2021年冠状病毒大流行的规模是另一个数量级。美国和其他国家的COVID-19患者神经系统疾病的原因尚不清楚，但数据表明，一些COVID-19患者的意识，意识和认知存在问题。已经在世界各地的患者身上进行了实验，并记录了COVID-19患者的行为数据。在这个项目中，主要研究人员将开发一个数学模型来理解这些神经机制。将对拟开发的模型进行验证和核实。一旦模型用来自美国和其他国家的数据进行校准，研究人员将研究COVID在发展大脑疾病中的作用。它们将根据参数的随机波动性来联合收割机组合模型的可预测性。研究结果将对人口和整个社会的整体福祉产生重要影响。如果有关脑损伤背后原因的不确定性继续存在，那么可能会进一步增加美国患有神经系统疾病的人数。尽管疫苗接种计划产生了积极影响，但COVID-19仍导致当前患者出现一些神经系统疾病。沿着COVID-19的负担，医院和卫生管理人员需要了解人群中其他长期的大脑相关疾病。一项良好的定量研究将立即有助于控制美国患有COVID-19的脑相关损伤个体的发病率。研究人员打算在全国范围内为神经内科医生提供免费咨询，如果他们需要任何即时的定量预测帮助（在有限的时间范围内）。研究人员将开发一个数学模型，以了解美国大脑退化与COVID-19之间关联的大小和复杂性，具体来说，他们将预测和评估美国可能患有精神病，出血，谵妄和中风等神经系统疾病的人。临床数据显示了一些相关性，但这些研究还不清楚为什么COVID患者会有这些疾病的原因。对COVID患者的几项研究发现，精神病诊断的临床病例定义与脑出血之间存在统计学相关性。另一个不确定性仍然存在于理解COVID对血脑屏障位置的影响方面;临床研究正在朝着这个方向进行。对大量临床人群的统计回归分析可能会提供神经系统疾病的各种独立变量之间的关联。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。