CAREER: EAR-Climate: Impacts of Recent Wetting on Cold Region Hydrologic Change in the Northern Great Plains

在过去的三十年里，北方大平原（NGP）最近降水的增加导致了大量的河流和毁灭性的洪水事件。然而，目前尚不清楚最近的湿润是如何影响水文通量的，例如水流的产生。特别是，在一个完整的干-湿（干旱-洪水）或湿-干（洪水-干旱）气候循环中，地表水储存与水文过程之间的关系还没有得到很好的理解。这项研究将通过使用实地测试的、基于物理的寒区水文模型，模拟和分析这个气候敏感地区的水文过程，填补这一知识空白。这项研究将包括一系列以野外为基础的寒区水文学研讨会，并让高中生和部落大学生参与夏季研究。这些活动将有助于基线数据的发展，激励美国土著学生进行雪和水资源的研究，并提高人们对气候变化对水安全和质量的影响的认识。本研究的目的是通过在1990-2020年期间对魔鬼湖五个源头流域进行实地测试的物理模型，了解最近干湿气候状态下的过程、行为、阈值、功能、滞后模式和反馈。了解该系统现在和过去的行为将促进对未来寒冷地区水文气候响应的理解。此外，研究冷区系统的滞后行为对于预测21世纪干湿循环变化区域的未来变化至关重要。该项目由水文科学和促进竞争研究的既定计划（EPSCoR）共同资助。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Recent increases in precipitation in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) have led to heavy streamflow and devastating flood events over the last three decades. However, it is not clear how the recent wetting has influenced hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow generation. In particular, the relationship between surface water storage and hydrologic processes during a complete dry-to-wet (drought-deluge) or wet-to-dry (deluge-drought) climatic cycle are not well understood. This study will fill this knowledge gap by simulating and analyzing hydrologic processes in this climate-sensitive region using a field-tested, physically-based cold region hydrologic model. This study will include a series of field-based cold region hydrology workshops and engage high school and tribal college students in summer research. These activities will aid in the development of baseline data, inspire Native American students in snow and water resources research, and raise awareness regarding the impact of changing climate on water security and quality.The objective of this study is to inform processes, behaviors, thresholds, functions, hysteresis patterns and feedbacks during the recent dry and wet climatic states through use of a field-tested physically-based model in five headwater basins draining to Devils Lake during 1990-2020 time period. Understanding the system's present and past behavior will advance understanding of the future cold region hydroclimatic response. Moreover, studying the hysteresis behavior of the cold region system is critical to predicting future change in a region expected to experience an altered wet and dry cycles throughout the 21st century. This project is jointly funded by Hydrologic Sciences and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.