CAREER: EAR-Climate: Impacts of Recent Wetting on Cold Region Hydrologic Change in the Northern Great Plains

在过去的三十年里，北部大平原(NGP)最近降水的增加导致了大量的径流和毁灭性的洪水事件。然而，目前尚不清楚最近的增湿对径流产生等水文通量有何影响。特别是，在一个完整的从干到湿(干旱-洪水)或从湿到干(洪水-干旱)的气候周期中，地表水储存和水文过程之间的关系没有得到很好的了解。这项研究将通过使用经过实地测试的、基于物理的寒冷地区水文模型来模拟和分析这一气候敏感地区的水文过程，从而填补这一知识空白。这项研究将包括一系列以野外为基础的寒冷地区水文学讲习班，并邀请高中生和部落大学生参与暑期研究。这些活动将有助于开发基线数据，启发美洲原住民学生进行雪和水资源研究，并提高对气候变化对水安全和质量影响的认识。本研究的目的是通过使用1990-2020年期间排放到魔鬼湖的五个源头流域的实地测试物理模型，了解最近干湿气候状态下的过程、行为、阈值、功能、滞后模式和反馈。了解该系统现在和过去的行为将促进对未来寒区水文气候响应的理解。此外，研究寒冷地区系统的滞后行为对于预测该地区未来的变化至关重要，该地区预计将在整个21世纪经历一次不同的干湿循环。该项目由水文科学和既定的激励竞争研究计划(EPSCoR)共同资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Recent increases in precipitation in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) have led to heavy streamflow and devastating flood events over the last three decades. However, it is not clear how the recent wetting has influenced hydrologic fluxes such as streamflow generation. In particular, the relationship between surface water storage and hydrologic processes during a complete dry-to-wet (drought-deluge) or wet-to-dry (deluge-drought) climatic cycle are not well understood. This study will fill this knowledge gap by simulating and analyzing hydrologic processes in this climate-sensitive region using a field-tested, physically-based cold region hydrologic model. This study will include a series of field-based cold region hydrology workshops and engage high school and tribal college students in summer research. These activities will aid in the development of baseline data, inspire Native American students in snow and water resources research, and raise awareness regarding the impact of changing climate on water security and quality.The objective of this study is to inform processes, behaviors, thresholds, functions, hysteresis patterns and feedbacks during the recent dry and wet climatic states through use of a field-tested physically-based model in five headwater basins draining to Devils Lake during 1990-2020 time period. Understanding the system's present and past behavior will advance understanding of the future cold region hydroclimatic response. Moreover, studying the hysteresis behavior of the cold region system is critical to predicting future change in a region expected to experience an altered wet and dry cycles throughout the 21st century. This project is jointly funded by Hydrologic Sciences and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.