The Impact of Disruptions to Migration on Land Use and Resilience in Agricultural Systems

该项目将调查移民、农村生计和土地使用之间的复杂联系，特别关注COVID-19大流行期间大规模返回农村地区的移民。该项目采用将纵向调查数据与遥感土地覆盖数据相结合的混合方法，将揭示流行病如何影响农村社区的生计。该项目建立在2019年进行的环境和移民调查的基础上，该调查收集了4000个家庭的详细社会经济数据，并在2022年对同一家庭进行了后续调查。这些调查结果与土地覆盖变化数据相结合，将说明这四年期间由于移民网络、劳动力供应和就业中断而造成的农业变化。这项研究的结果将解释移民如何影响农业和土地利用，结果提供了一个了解农村社区如何科普社会环境的影响，如流行病的中断，移民如何影响农村地区的土地利用变化的问题是了解影响粮食安全和生计的因素的基础。为了解决这个问题，这支研究团队将调查农村地区的移民和土地利用如何随着时间和背景的变化而变化;移民的大规模回归如何影响土地利用;以及移民，生计活动和土地利用如何与大流行期间的恢复力相关。通过将历史土地覆被数据与详细的回顾性住户调查数据联系起来，该项目将揭示实地规模的土地覆被动态如何随着时间的推移和在压力时期与住户和社区动态相互作用。这项工作的结果将与社区利益攸关方分享，这些利益攸关方面临着如何在经济紧张和转型时期为农村社区做好准备和提供支持的紧迫而困难的问题。该项目开发的数据、方法和工具将被广泛使用，并可推广到农村地区。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will investigate the complex linkages between migration, rural livelihoods and land use focusing specifically on mass return migration to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrates longitudinal survey data with remotely sensed land cover data, this project will reveal how pandemics effect rural communities’ livelihoods. This project builds on a previously conducted environment and migration survey in 2019 that collected detailed socio-economic data from 4000 households by conducting a follow-up survey in 2022 of the same households. These survey results coupled with the land cover change data will illustrate agriculture changes over this four-year period caused by disruptions to migrant networks, labor supply, and employment. The results of this study will explain how migration impacts agriculture and land use, results that provide an understanding of how rural communities cope with the socio-enviromental impacts of disruptions like a pandemic.The question of how migration impacts land use change in rural areas is fundamental for understanding factors that impact food security and livelihoods. To address this question, this team of researchers will investigate how migration and land use in rural areas vary over time and across contexts; how the large-scale return of migrants has impacted land use; and how migration, livelihood activities, and land use correlate with resilience during the pandemic. By linking historical land cover data with detailed retrospective household survey data, the project will reveal how field-scale land cover dynamics interact with household- and community-dynamics over time and during periods of stress. Findings from this work will be shared with community stakeholders who face pressing and difficult questions about how to prepare and support rural communities during times of economic stress and transition. The data, methods and tools developed from this project will be widely available and are generalizable to rural settings.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.