CNH-L: Socioecological System Dynamics Related to Livelihood, Human Migration, and Landscape Evolution

CNH-L：与生计、人类迁移和景观演化相关的社会生态系统动力学

• 批准号: 1716909
• 负责人: Amanda Carrico
• 金额: $ 149.87万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2023-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1716909&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Socioecological; System; Dynamics; Related

This interdisciplinary research project will examine the relationships among river and coastal processes, landscape dynamics, and human activities and migration in a densely populated river delta. It will enhance understanding of the scales and associations among physical and human system dynamics, including complex feedback loops among those systems. The project will identify how these relationships shift over time, and it will provide new insights regarding the ways in which variable river discharge or land modifications by humans may influence system interactions in the future. The project will yield a diverse set of products that will have future value in both basic and applied research contexts, including data about migration, livelihood activities, land-use, and adaptation from communities living on a shifting coastline; detailed characterization of the role of land-water governance in shaping both contemporary and historical social-biophysical dynamics within river deltas, and open-source computer models of migration and landscape patterns that emerge in an environment where land is constantly created and destroyed. The project will provide valuable interdisciplinary education and training opportunities for graduate students. Other educational activities related to the research will involve students in comparable regions of the U.S. and Bangladesh.River deltas are complex systems facing the challenge of balancing sustainable development, resource use, and land security in a continually shifting environment. As land and economic opportunities are created (and sometimes destroyed) through evolving landscape dynamics, risks from floods and conflicts over land tenure are intensified, forcing community upheaval and migration. The investigators will use an interdisciplinary approach that integrates household- and community-level surveys, qualitative interviews, collection of sedimentological and geochemical field data, time-series analyses of landscape and institutional change, and scenario modeling. They will combine established empirical methods in the social sciences and the earth sciences with computational modeling to study coupled dynamics of human activity and environmental change in rural communities living along channels in a low-lying delta, where sediment deposition and erosion create a constantly changing landscape. The investigators will focus on population movement as a crucial process on the human side of these coupled dynamics. They will characterize different types of migration as responses to environmental and socioeconomic stress and to opportunities related to changing environmental conditions. The impacts of migration on livelihood activities, which in turn affect the physical environment through land use, also will be assessed. With respect to physical systems, sediment transport, and the rates of deposition and erosion will be a central focus, because the creation or destruction of agricultural and homestead land are expected to strongly affect migration dynamics, particularly as changing climatic regimes produce unpredictable precipitation and flooding patterns. Observational data about the changing biophysical landscape and human activity will be integrated in coupled agent-based and sediment transport models to explore the role of migration as a potential adaptation to climatic stress and as a source of resilience in vulnerable populations. Although the bulk of the project will focus on dynamic interactions among biophysical and human systems in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta of Bangladesh, project findings will have relevance for other densely settled deltas around the world, including the Mississippi River delta of the southern U.S. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.

这一跨学科研究项目将研究人口稠密的河流三角洲的河流和海岸过程、景观动态以及人类活动和迁徙之间的关系。它将加强对物理和人类系统动态之间的尺度和联系的理解，包括这些系统之间的复杂反馈回路。该项目将确定这些关系如何随着时间的推移而变化，并将提供关于人类可变的河流流量或土地修改可能影响未来系统相互作用的方式的新见解。该项目将产生一套在基础和应用研究方面都有未来价值的各种产品，包括关于移民、生计活动、土地利用和生活在不断变化的海岸线上的社区的适应的数据；详细描述土地-水治理在塑造河流三角洲当代和历史社会-生物物理动态方面的作用，以及在土地不断被创造和破坏的环境中出现的移民和景观格局的开源计算机模型。该项目将为研究生提供宝贵的跨学科教育和培训机会。与这项研究相关的其他教育活动将涉及美国和孟加拉国可比地区的学生。河流三角洲是一个复杂的系统，面临着在不断变化的环境中平衡可持续发展、资源利用和土地安全的挑战。由于土地和经济机会是通过不断演变的地形动态创造的(有时是被破坏的)，洪水和土地保有权冲突的风险加剧，迫使社区发生动乱和迁移。调查员将采用跨学科方法，综合家庭和社区一级的调查、定性访谈、收集沉积学和地球化学场数据、景观和体制变化的时间序列分析以及情景模拟。他们将把社会科学和地球科学中已有的经验方法与计算模型结合起来，研究居住在低洼三角洲河道沿线的农村社区中人类活动和环境变化的耦合动力学，那里的泥沙淤积和侵蚀造成了不断变化的景观。研究人员将把人口流动作为这些耦合动态中人类方面的一个关键过程作为重点。他们将把不同类型的移徙定性为对环境和社会经济压力以及与不断变化的环境条件有关的机会的反应。还将评估移徙对生计活动的影响，这些活动反过来又通过土地使用影响物质环境。关于自然系统，泥沙输送以及沉积和侵蚀的速度将是中心重点，因为农业和宅基地的开辟或破坏预计将严重影响移徙动态，特别是在不断变化的气候制度产生不可预测的降水和洪水模式的情况下。关于不断变化的生物物理地貌和人类活动的观测数据将纳入以制剂为基础的耦合模型和沉积物传输模型中，以探讨移徙作为对气候压力的潜在适应和作为脆弱人口复原力来源的作用。虽然该项目的大部分内容将集中于孟加拉国恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳三角洲生物物理和人类系统之间的动态相互作用，但项目结果将与世界各地其他人口稠密的三角洲相关，包括美国南部的密西西比河三角洲。该项目得到了美国国家科学基金会自然与人类耦合系统动力学(CNH)计划的支持。

项目成果

Extreme weather and migration: evidence from Bangladesh

• DOI: 10.1007/s11111-019-00322-9
• 发表时间: 2019-09-01
• 期刊: POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Carrico, Amanda R.;Donato, Katharine
• 通讯作者: Donato, Katharine

A first-order geochemical budget for suspended sediment discharge to the Bay of Bengal from the Ganges-Brahmaputra river system

恒河-雅鲁藏布江水系向孟加拉湾排放悬浮沉积物的一阶地球化学预算

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138667
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Science of The Total Environment
• 影响因子: 9.8
• 作者: Dietrich, Matthew;Best, Kelsea B.;Raff, Jessica L.;Ronay, Elli R.
• 通讯作者: Ronay, Elli R.

Extreme weather and marriage among girls and women in Bangladesh

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102160
• 发表时间: 2020-11-01
• 期刊: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Carrico, Amanda R.;Donato, Katharine M.;Gilligan, Jonathan
• 通讯作者: Gilligan, Jonathan

Riverbank erosion and char stability along the fluvial-to-tidal transition zone in the Lower Meghna River and Tentulia Channel in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Bangladesh

• DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2023.108692
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Geomorphology
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: L. Valentine;Carol A. Wilson

Modeling the Dynamics of Sediment Transport, Tides, and Sea-Level Rise: Implications for the Resilience of Coastal Bengal

• DOI: 10.1109/wsc60868.2023.10407393
• 发表时间: 2023-12
• 期刊: 2023 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
• 作者: C. M. Tasich;Jonathan M. Gilligan;G. Hornberger