Collaborative Research: Building a Framework for the Causes of and Solutions to the Pluralistic Ignorance Gap on Climate Change

当面对巨大而复杂的社会问题时，人们依靠他人的信仰和行为信息来决定是否以及如何采取行动。然而，适应性社会学习只有在人们准确地感知他人的思想和行为时才有效。不幸的是，越来越多的证据表明，人们对他人的信仰和行为的认知存在巨大的、系统性的、持续的错误。特别是，人们最严重地低估了他人对气候问题的关注和采取行动的意愿。这些低估可能会扼杀公民参与、富有成效的对话、政策支持和公众的集体行动，并阻碍民选官员做出回应，因为他们认为这些官员对选民的优先事项做出回应。这项研究开发了一个框架，以更好地理解为什么人们会有误解，以及什么方法可以提高感知的准确性。缩小这一差距可以鼓励公共和私人行为体采取措施应对气候变化。此外，了解持续存在的社会误解的原因与一系列广泛的问题有关。通过研究集体行动的基本认知挑战，本研究有助于舆论形成的学术研究，并支持考虑人类社会性质的传播策略的发展，以更有效地动员气候行动。解决气候变化等集体行动问题需要个人参与一系列协调一致的行为，以影响广泛的系统性变化。最近的研究表明，当人们相信别人和他们一样关心并渴望采取行动时，他们更有可能采取行动。然而，虽然大多数人都关注气候变化，但他们系统性地低估了他人的关注，这可能会阻碍应对集体挑战的行动。在跨学科研究的基础上，该项目采用跨多个样本的横断面、纵向和实验设计来开发和测试一个综合框架，该框架阐明了普遍存在的社会误解的驱动因素和纠正这些偏见的途径。建议的研究进展分为三个阶段：1)识别和测试对社会误解的合理解释；2)制定和比较纠正误解的方法；3)在高影响和生态有效的背景下测试干预措施，包括决策者样本。本研究将促进认知科学、判断与决策、社会心理学和传播学等领域对集体规范持续和系统性误解的研究。这项研究扩展了之前的工作，通过识别和测试误解形成和持续存在的机制，以及如何改善这些机制，帮助政策制定者和教育工作者相应地调整信息。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

When faced with large, complex societal problems, people rely on information about others’ beliefs and behaviors to decide whether and how to act. Adaptive social learning, however, only works when people accurately sense others’ thoughts and actions. Unfortunately, mounting evidence shows large, systematic and persistent errors in perceptions about the beliefs and actions of others. In particular, people most dramatically underestimate others’ climate concerns and willingness to act. These underestimates can stifle civic engagement, productive dialogue, policy support, and collective action by the general public, and discourage responses from elected officials, who respond to what they see as their constituents’ priorities. This research develops a framework to better understand why people have mispreceptions and what methods can improve the accuracy of perceptions. Closing this gap can encourage public and private actors to take steps towards addressing climate change. Furthermore, understanding the causes of persistent social misperceptions is relevant for a broad range of problems. By studying a fundamental cognitive challenge for collective action, this research contributes to scholarship on opinion formation and supports the development of communication strategies that take into account humankind’s social nature to more effectively mobilize climate action. Addressing collective action problems such as climate change requires individuals to engage in a host of coordinated behaviors to effect widespread systemic changes. Recent work suggests that individuals are more likely to take action when they believe that others share their concerns and desire for action. Yet, while most people are concerned about climate change, they systematically underestimate others’ concern, which can inhibit action toward addressing collective challenges. Drawing on interdisciplinary research, this project uses cross-sectional, longitudinal, and experimental designs across multiple samples to develop and test an integrative framework illuminating drivers of pervasive social misperceptions and pathways for correcting these biases. The proposed studies progress in three phases: 1) identifying and testing plausible explanations for social misperceptions; 2) developing and comparing methods for correcting misperceptions; and 3) testing interventions in high-impact and ecologically valid contexts, including with a sample of decision makers. The proposed research will advance the literatures in cognitive science, judgment and decision making, social psychology, and communications related to persistent and systematic misperceptions about collective norms. The research extends previous work by identifying and testing mechanisms by which misperceptions develop and persist and how they can be ameliorated, helping policymakers and educators tailor messages accordingly.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.