Collaborative Research: Building a Framework for the Causes of and Solutions to the Pluralistic Ignorance Gap on Climate Change

当面对巨大而复杂的社会问题时，人们依赖于他人的信仰和行为来决定是否以及如何采取行动。然而，适应性社会学习只有在人们准确地感知他人的想法和行动时才有效。不幸的是，越来越多的证据表明，在对他人的信仰和行动的看法上，存在着巨大的、系统的和持续的错误。特别是，人们最显著地低估了其他人的气候问题和采取行动的意愿。这些低估可能会扼杀公民参与、富有成效的对话、政策支持和公众的集体行动，并阻碍民选官员的反应，他们会对他们认为是选民优先考虑的事情做出反应。这项研究开发了一个框架，以更好地理解为什么人们会有误解，以及什么方法可以提高感知的准确性。缩小这一差距可以鼓励公共和私人行为者采取措施应对气候变化。此外，了解持续存在的社会误解的原因与一系列广泛的问题有关。通过研究集体行动的基本认知挑战，这项研究有助于对舆论形成的学术研究，并支持制定考虑到人类社会性质的传播战略，以更有效地动员气候行动。解决气候变化等集体行动问题需要个人参与一系列协调一致的行为，以实现广泛的系统性变化。最近的研究表明，当人们相信其他人也有同样的担忧和行动愿望时，他们更有可能采取行动。然而，尽管大多数人都在关注气候变化，但他们却系统性地低估了其他人的关注，这可能会抑制应对集体挑战的行动。该项目利用跨学科研究，在多个样本中使用横截面，纵向和实验设计来开发和测试一个综合框架，该框架阐明了普遍存在的社会误解的驱动因素和纠正这些偏见的途径。拟议的研究分为三个阶段：1）确定和测试社会误解的合理解释; 2）开发和比较纠正误解的方法; 3）在高影响力和生态有效的背景下测试干预措施，包括决策者样本。拟议的研究将推进认知科学，判断和决策，社会心理学，以及与对集体规范的持续和系统性误解相关的通信文献。该研究通过识别和测试误解发展和持续的机制以及如何改善这些机制来扩展以前的工作，帮助政策制定者和教育工作者相应地调整信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

When faced with large, complex societal problems, people rely on information about others’ beliefs and behaviors to decide whether and how to act. Adaptive social learning, however, only works when people accurately sense others’ thoughts and actions. Unfortunately, mounting evidence shows large, systematic and persistent errors in perceptions about the beliefs and actions of others. In particular, people most dramatically underestimate others’ climate concerns and willingness to act. These underestimates can stifle civic engagement, productive dialogue, policy support, and collective action by the general public, and discourage responses from elected officials, who respond to what they see as their constituents’ priorities. This research develops a framework to better understand why people have mispreceptions and what methods can improve the accuracy of perceptions. Closing this gap can encourage public and private actors to take steps towards addressing climate change. Furthermore, understanding the causes of persistent social misperceptions is relevant for a broad range of problems. By studying a fundamental cognitive challenge for collective action, this research contributes to scholarship on opinion formation and supports the development of communication strategies that take into account humankind’s social nature to more effectively mobilize climate action. Addressing collective action problems such as climate change requires individuals to engage in a host of coordinated behaviors to effect widespread systemic changes. Recent work suggests that individuals are more likely to take action when they believe that others share their concerns and desire for action. Yet, while most people are concerned about climate change, they systematically underestimate others’ concern, which can inhibit action toward addressing collective challenges. Drawing on interdisciplinary research, this project uses cross-sectional, longitudinal, and experimental designs across multiple samples to develop and test an integrative framework illuminating drivers of pervasive social misperceptions and pathways for correcting these biases. The proposed studies progress in three phases: 1) identifying and testing plausible explanations for social misperceptions; 2) developing and comparing methods for correcting misperceptions; and 3) testing interventions in high-impact and ecologically valid contexts, including with a sample of decision makers. The proposed research will advance the literatures in cognitive science, judgment and decision making, social psychology, and communications related to persistent and systematic misperceptions about collective norms. The research extends previous work by identifying and testing mechanisms by which misperceptions develop and persist and how they can be ameliorated, helping policymakers and educators tailor messages accordingly.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.