Collaborative Research: Constraining Pliocene North Pacific marine heatwave variability from individual foraminifera Mg/Ca

海洋热浪是海洋温度高于平均水平的延长时期。它们可能会产生巨大的社会和经济影响。海洋热浪的频率和持续时间被认为正在增加，但几乎没有数据来评估这种趋势。该项目将通过重建上新世晚期的热浪可变性，将海洋热浪置于更广泛的背景下。大约260万到360万年前的那段温暖时期，在地质学上类似于不久的将来的气候。该项目的结果将为评估气候模型模拟提供数据。这将有助于改进对包括海洋热浪在内的未来气候的模型预测。该项目将资助西华盛顿大学的一名研究生和华盛顿大学的一名博士后。该项目还将支持以气候为重点的大学教学模块的开发，以及向公众宣传海洋热浪的原因和后果的外展努力。该项目将探索北太平洋的海洋热浪行为，2014-2016年的热浪事件可能是有史以来对生态和经济影响最大的一次。该项目将利用单个球藻有孔虫的元素/钙比例，生成海洋表面温度的分布，利用分位数分析从这些分布中提取海洋热浪的指纹。通过比较多个核心地点从全新世到皮亚琴期中期的重建，该项目将表征工业化前北太平洋海洋热浪的行为，并对未来气候进行地质类比，从而为改进气候模型提供一个有价值的目标。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Marine heatwaves are extended periods of above average ocean temperature. They can have large social and economic impacts. The frequency and duration of marine heatwaves is thought to be increasing, but little data exists to evaluate such trends. This project will place marine heatwaves in a broader context by reconstructing heatwave variability during the late Pliocene. That warm time period roughly 2.6 to 3.6 million years ago is a geologic analog for near future climate. Results from this project will provide data to evaluate climate model simulations. That will help improve model forecasts of future climate, including marine heatwaves. The project will support a graduate student at Western Washington University and a postdoc at the University of Washington. The project will also support development of college-level teaching modules focused on climate, and outreach efforts to inform the public about the causes and consequences of marine heatwaves.This project will explore marine heatwave behavior in the north Pacific, where a heatwave event from 2014-2016 was likely the most ecologically and economically impactful ever. Using element/calcium ratios of individual Globigerina bulloides foraminifera, the project will generate distributions of sea surface temperature from which the fingerprint of marine heatwaves can be extracted using quantile-quantile analysis. By comparing reconstructions from the Holocene to those during the mid-Piacenzian warm period at multiple core sites, the project will characterize the behavior of north Pacific marine heatwaves during the preindustrial and a geologic analog for future climate, thereby providing a valuable target for improving climate models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.