A Spatiotemporal Investigation of Heat Wave Dynamics

该项目将分析热浪的空间和时间模式的变化，并探索其大小与土壤湿度和土地覆盖等物理变量之间的关系，目的是开发热浪发生的预测模型。酷热是最常见的与天气有关的死亡原因。更好地了解热浪的大小、强度和这些特征的驱动因素将通过确定在哪里以及在什么条件下热浪可能更大和/或更强烈来加强公共安全，以便规划公共卫生干预措施，如警告、教育和设置冷却/补给站等。气候学和景观生态学方法的新结合将使热浪空间数据库的开发成为可能，该数据库可用于回答一些问题，如气候和地表变化如何影响热浪的大小和强度。该项目的更广泛影响包括对公共卫生、城市规划、灾害管理和备灾以及土地管理和政策的影响。通过与热健康利益攸关方举办讲习班，该项目将促进传播成果并将其转化为公共卫生和应急管理方面的建议。该项目有教育和外联活动，旨在促进代表人数不足的群体的融入，促进少数群体更多地参与地理和相关的STEM领域。该项目将解决改善热浪时空模型的迫切需要。将结合地理学、景观生态学和气候学领域的空间分析技术来研究热浪的时空演变。每天将使用简单几何概念(形式化为形状度量)和聚类算法的新组合来跟踪热浪。预计热浪中的条件将对人类和环境健康构成重大风险的地区将是重点关注的地区。利用统计模型和关键气候周期的概念，这些区域将与地球物理变量联系起来，包括影响地面空气温度和湿度的大气和地表变量。两个主要的研究问题是：(1)热浪的大小和形状等时空特征可以观察到哪些变化？(2)热浪的统计特征(频率、强度、持续时间)、热浪的空间特征(大小、形状、连通性)和地球物理变量之间有什么关系？该项目的首要目标是开发预测这些热浪特征的模型。该研究项目将重点关注美国大陆的热浪，对全球热浪影响的管理具有影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will analyze changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of heat waves and explore relationships between their size and physical variables, such as soil moisture and land cover, with the goal of developing predictive models of heat wave occurrence. Extreme heat is the most common weather-related cause of death. A better understanding of heat wave size, intensity and drivers of these characteristics will enhance public safety by identifying where and under what conditions heat waves are likely to be larger and/or more intense, so that public health interventions such as warnings, education, and staging of cooling/hydration stations, etc. can be planned. Novel integration of methods from climatology and landscape ecology will allow for development of a spatial database of heat waves that can be used to answer questions, such as how climate and land-surface change impacts heat wave size and intensity. Broader impacts of the project include implications for public health, urban planning, and disaster management and preparedness as well as land management and policy. Through workshops with heat-health stakeholders the project will promote dissemination of results and their translation into recommendations for public health and emergency management. The project has education and outreach activities designed to promote the inclusion of underrepresented groups and foster increased minority participation in geography and related STEM fields.This project will address the critical need to improve the spatial and temporal modeling of heat waves. Spatial analysis techniques from the fields of geography, landscape ecology, and climatology will be combined to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of heat waves. Heat waves will be tracked daily using a novel combination of simple geometric concepts, formalized as shape metrics, and a clustering algorithm. Regions within heat waves where conditions are expected to pose a significant risk to human and environmental health will be a key focus. Using statistical models and the concept of critical climate periods these regions will be linked to geophysical variables including atmospheric and land surface variables that influence surface air temperature and humidity. The two main research questions are: (1) what changes can be observed in spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves, such as size and shape? and (2) what are the relationships among statistical characteristics of heat waves (frequency, magnitude, duration), spatial characteristics of heat waves (size, shape, connectivity), and geophysical variables? The overarching goal of the project is to develop models to predict these heat wave characteristics. This research project will focus on heat waves in the continental United States, with implications for managing heat wave impacts globally.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.