Collaborative Research: MRA: Climate legacies and timescales of influence on carbon cycle processes in drylands

合作研究：MRA：气候遗产和对旱地碳循环过程影响的时间尺度

• 批准号: 2213600
• 负责人: Nicholas Parazoo
• 金额: $ 79.53万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2027-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2213600&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; MRA; Climate; legacies

Earth’s climate is changing, and climate extremes such as droughts and heat waves are becoming more common. Such changes are impacting vegetation productivity, the carbon cycle, and the water cycle, especially in drier regions in the western United States. Studies are showing that not only do extreme climate events affect ecosystems when those events occur, but the effects continue long after the events themselves. This lingering effect of climate extremes, especially drought events, is often referred to as a climate or drought “legacy.” Studies also suggest that past conditions, regardless of whether extreme or not, continue to affect ecosystems after they have occurred, such that ecosystems have “memory” of those past conditions. The importance of such legacies and memory may be critical to understanding how continued climate change will impact Earth’s ecosystems and carbon balance. This project will study the legacies and memory of climate variables — such as precipitation, drought, and temperature — on tree growth, forest productivity, and ecosystem carbon fluxes in the western US. Researchers will analyze a huge volume of data of different types, including annual tree growth, carbon variability, and vegetation production, and will use computer simulations to predict future trends. Results from this work will increase understanding of how plants and ecosystems are impacted by climate variability and extreme climate events, which may be useful for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Post-doctoral researchers, graduate students, and undergraduate trainees will participate in the research. The project will share knowledge gained from this research with local and regional communities via collaborations with professional river guides, state and federal agencies, and scientists and land managers interested in understanding the impacts of drought on vegetation, ecosystems, and the carbon cycle.This study seeks to quantify legacies (prolonged impacts of an extreme event) and memory (timescales of influence, whether extreme or not) of climate-related drivers on key C-cycle components, over a range of spatial and temporal scales across drylands in the western US. This study will (1) quantify the magnitude and duration of climate (e.g., drought) legacies on C fluxes; (2) evaluate climatic memory and the timescales over which climate drivers impact C fluxes; (3) determine how legacy and memory responses vary across drylands in the western US; and (4) evaluate the importance of legacies and memory for the C cycle. To address these, this study will employ modern statistical methods (wavelet analyses, machine learning, Bayesian models) to integrate diverse datasets varying in temporal and spatial coverage and resolution, including multiple tree-ring networks, ground-based flux towers, satellite data products, model-data fusion products, and biospheric model outputs. This study will provide insights into the magnitude and duration of climate-C-cycle legacies, how these legacies vary across space, and the potential mechanisms giving rise to such legacies. The core project team (8 researchers) includes 3 early career scientists, and multiple additional participants (postdocs, PhD students, undergraduates). The project includes a variety of training and outreach activities aimed at the scientific community, land and resource managers, agency stakeholders, and the public. Activities include organizing sessions for scientific meetings, a workshop focused on “Drought Legacies and Terrestrial C-cycling,” facilitating interagency communication via collaborations with the National Integrated Drought Information System, working with professional guide programs in the Colorado Plateau region to disseminate knowledge to the public, and developing hands-on educational materials for the Flagstaff Festival of Science.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

地球的气候正在发生变化，干旱和热浪等极端气候变得越来越普遍。这种变化会影响植被生产率，碳周期和水周期，尤其是在美国西部的驾驶员地区。研究表明，极端气候事件不仅会在发生这些事件时会影响生态系统，而且事件本身会持续很长时间。气候极端的这种挥之不去的效果，尤其是干旱事件，通常被称为气候或干旱“遗产”。研究还表明，过去的条件，无论极端，是否在发生后继续影响生态系统，因此生态系统对过去的条件具有“记忆”。这种遗产和记忆的重要性对于了解持续的气候变化将如何影响地球生态系统和碳平衡至关重要。该项目将研究美国西部的树木生长，森林生产率和生态系统碳通量的气候变量的遗产和记忆。研究人员将分析大量不同类型的数据，包括每年的树木生长，碳变异性和植被生产，并将使用计算机模拟来预测未来的趋势。这项工作的结果将增加对植物和生态系统如何受到气候变化和极端气候事件影响的理解，这可能对减轻气候变化的影响有用。博士后研究人员，研究生和本科学员将参加这项研究。该项目将通过与专业河流向导，州和联邦机构的合作以及有兴趣理解干旱对植被，生态系统和碳周期的影响的科学家和土地管理者的合作以及科学家和土地管理者的合作，分享该项目从本研究中获得的知识。这项研究旨在量化遗产（延长极端事件的延长），是否有影响力的范围，是量表的延长，是影响力的延长，是否是影响到范围的极端情况，是否会影响到极端的影响）在美国西部的旱地范围内的一系列空间和临时尺度上。这项研究将（1）量化C通量上的攀爬（例如干旱）遗产的幅度和持续时间； （2）评估杂物记忆和登山者驾驶员影响C通量的时间表； （3）确定在美国西部旱地的遗产和记忆反应如何变化； （4）评估遗产和记忆对C周期的重要性。为了解决这些问题，这项研究将采用现代统计方法（小波分析，机器学习，贝叶斯模型）来整合临时和空间覆盖范围和分辨率的潜水员数据集，包括多个树环网络，基于地面的磁通塔，卫星数据产品，模型数据融合产品，模型融合产品以及生物圈模型输出。这项研究将提供有关气候 - 周期遗产的幅度和持续时间的见解，这些遗产如何在空间中变化以及潜在的机制引起了这种遗产。核心项目团队（8名研究人员）包括3位早期的职业科学家和其他更多参与者（博士后，博士生，本科生）。该项目包括针对科学活动的各种培训和外展活动，包括组织会议的组织会议，一个针对“干旱遗产和陆地c-cycling”的研讨会，通过与国家综合干旱信息系统的合作进行交互交流，以与科罗拉多州的专业指南启用材料的专业指导计划进行交流，并在科罗拉多州的专业指南中开发，并开发了公共场所，以宣传开发的节目，以供公众开发，以供开发范围，以启用传播的活动。 NSF的法定使命，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准来评估，被认为是宝贵的支持。